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Mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension: prediction by the 2015 European pulmonary hypertension guidelines risk stratification model.

ABSTRACT: The 2015 European pulmonary hypertension (PH) guidelines propose a risk stratification strategy for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Low-, intermediate- and high-risk strata are defined by estimated 1-year mortality risks of <5%, 5-10% and >10%, respectively. This risk assessment strategy awaits validation.We analysed data from patients with newly diagnosed PAH enrolled into COMPERA (Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension), a European-based PH registry. An abbreviated version of the risk assessment strategy proposed by the European PH guidelines was applied, using the following variables: World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walking distance, brain natriuretic peptide or its N-terminal fragment, right atrial pressure, cardiac index and mixed venous oxygen saturation.Data from 1588 patients were analysed. Mortality rates were significantly different between the three risk strata (p<0.001 for all comparisons). In the entire patient population, the observed mortality rates 1?year after diagnosis were 2.8% in the low-risk cohort (n=196), 9.9% in the intermediate-risk cohort (n=1116) and 21.2% in the high-risk cohort (n=276). In addition, the risk assessment strategy proved valid at follow-up and in major PAH subgroups.An abbreviated version of the risk assessment strategy proposed by the current European PH guidelines provides accurate mortality estimates in patients with PAH.

SUBMITTER: Hoeper MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5593388 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension: prediction by the 2015 European pulmonary hypertension guidelines risk stratification model.

Hoeper Marius M MM Kramer Tilmann T Pan Zixuan Z Eichstaedt Christina A CA Spiesshoefer Jens J Benjamin Nicola N Olsson Karen M KM Meyer Katrin K Vizza Carmine Dario CD Vonk-Noordegraaf Anton A Distler Oliver O Opitz Christian C Gibbs J Simon R JSR Delcroix Marion M Ghofrani H Ardeschir HA Huscher Doerte D Pittrow David D Rosenkranz Stephan S Grünig Ekkehard E

The European respiratory journal 20170803 2

The 2015 European pulmonary hypertension (PH) guidelines propose a risk stratification strategy for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Low-, intermediate- and high-risk strata are defined by estimated 1-year mortality risks of <5%, 5-10% and >10%, respectively. This risk assessment strategy awaits validation.We analysed data from patients with newly diagnosed PAH enrolled into COMPERA (Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension), a ...[more]

PMID: 28775047

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Project description:BackgroundPrognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is closely related to indexes of right ventricular function. A better understanding of their relationship may provide important implications for risk stratification in PAH.Research questionCan clinical network graphs inform risk stratification in PAH?Study design and methodsThe study cohort consisted of 231 patients with PAH followed up for a median of 7.1 years. An undirected, correlation network was used to visualize the relationship between clinical features in PAH. This network was enriched for right heart parameters and included N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), comprehensive echocardiographic parameters, and hemodynamics, as well as 6-min walk distance (6MWD), vital signs, laboratory data, and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Connectivity was assessed by using eigenvector and betweenness centrality to reflect global and regional connectivity, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model event-free survival for the combined end point of death or lung transplantation.ResultsA network of closely intertwined features centered around NT-proBNP with 6MWD emerging as a secondary hub were identified. Less connected nodes included Dlco, systolic BP, albumin, and sodium. Over the follow-up period, death or transplantation occurred in 92 patients (39.8%). A strong prognostic model was achieved with a Harrell's C-index of 0.81 (0.77-0.85) when combining central right heart features (NT-proBNP and right ventricular end-systolic remodeling index) with 6MWD and less connected nodes (Dlco, systolic BP, albumin, sodium, sex, connective tissue disease etiology, and prostanoid therapy). When added to the baseline risk model, serial change in NT-proBNP significantly improved outcome prediction at 5 years (increase in C-statistic of 0.071 ± 0.024; P = .003).InterpretationNT-proBNP emerged as a central hub in the intertwined PAH network. Connectivity analysis provides explainability for feature selection and combination in outcome models.

Project description:Background: Given the morbidity and mortality associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), risk stratification approaches that guide therapeutic management have been previously employed. However, most patients remain in the intermediate-risk category despite initial therapy. Herein, we sought to determine whether echocardiographic parameters could improve the risk stratification of intermediate-risk patients. Methods: Prevalent PAH patients previously enrolled in observational studies at 3 pulmonary hypertension centers were included in this study. A validated PAH risk stratification approach was used to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Right ventricular echocardiographic parameters were used to further stratify intermediate-risk patients into intermediate-low- and intermediate-high-risk groups based on transplant-free survival. Results: From a total of 146 patients included in our study, 38 patients died over a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Patients with intermediate-/high-risk had worse echocardiographic parameters. Tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and the degree of tricuspid regurgitation (TR) were highly associated with survival (p < 0.01, p = 0.04, respectively) and were subsequently used to further stratify intermediate-risk patients. Among intermediate-risk patients, survival was worse for patients with TAPSE < 19 mm compared to those with TAPSE ≥ 19 mm (estimated one-year survival 74% vs. 96%, p < 0.01) and for patients with moderate/severe TR compared to those with no/trace/mild TR (estimated one-year survival 70% vs. 93%, p < 0.01). Furthermore, among intermediate-risk patients, those with both TAPSE < 19 mm and moderate/severe TR had an estimated one-year survival (56%) similar to that of high-risk patients (56%), and those with both TAPSE ≥ 19 mm and no/trace/mild TR had an estimated one-year survival (97%) similar to that of low-risk patients (95%). Conclusions: Echocardiography, a routinely performed, non-invasive imaging modality, plays a pivotal role in discriminating distinct survival phenotypes among prevalent intermediate-risk PAH patients using TAPSE and degree of TR. This can potentially help guide subsequent therapy.

Project description:Rationale: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a life-shortening condition. The European Society of Cardiology and European Respiratory Society and the REVEAL (North American Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management) risk score calculator (REVEAL 2.0) identify thresholds to predict 1-year mortality.Objectives: This study evaluates whether cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) thresholds can be identified and used to aid risk stratification and facilitate decision-making.Methods: Consecutive patients with PAH (n = 438) undergoing cardiac MRI were identified from the ASPIRE (Assessing the Spectrum of Pulmonary Hypertension Identified at a Referral Center) MRI database. Thresholds were identified from a discovery cohort and evaluated in a test cohort.Measurements and Main Results: A percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index threshold of 227% or a left ventricular end-diastolic volume index of 58 ml/m2 identified patients at low (<5%) and high (>10%) risk of 1-year mortality. These metrics respectively identified 63% and 34% of patients as low risk. Right ventricular ejection fraction >54%, 37-54%, and <37% identified 21%, 43%, and 36% of patients at low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively, of 1-year mortality. At follow-up cardiac MRI, patients who improved to or were maintained in a low-risk group had a 1-year mortality <5%. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index independently predicted outcome and, when used in conjunction with the REVEAL 2.0 risk score calculator or a modified French Pulmonary Hypertension Registry approach, improved risk stratification for 1-year mortality.Conclusions: Cardiac MRI can be used to risk stratify patients with PAH using a threshold approach. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index can identify a high percentage of patients at low-risk of 1-year mortality and, when used in conjunction with current risk stratification approaches, can improve risk stratification. This study supports further evaluation of cardiac MRI in risk stratification in PAH.

Project description:Adrenomedullin is a potent vasodilatory peptide, linked to pulmonary arterial hypertension pathology. Proximity extension assays were utilized to study plasma biomarkers related to vasoregulation, with focus on adrenomedullin peptides and precursor levels, collectively referred to as ADM. ADM was measured in 48 treatment-naïve pulmonary arterial hypertension patients at diagnosis, and in 31 of them at an early treatment follow-up. Plasma ADM was additionally assessed in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (n = 20) and pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved (HFpEF(PH)) (n = 33) or reduced (HFrEF(PH)) (n = 36) ejection fraction, as well as healthy controls (n = 16). ADM was studied in relation to pulmonary arterial hypertension hemodynamics, risk assessment, prognosis, treatment response, and differentiation. Plasma ADM levels in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients at diagnosis were higher than in healthy controls (p < 0.001), similar as in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension patients (p = ns), but lower compared to HFpEF(PH) (p < 0.03) and HFrEF(PH) (p < 0.001). In pulmonary arterial hypertension, specifically, plasma ADM at diagnosis correlated mainly to mean right atrial pressure (r = 0.73, p < 0.001), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (r = 0.75, p < 0.001), six-minute walking distance (r = -0.57, p < 0.001), and venous oxygen saturation (r = -0.57, p < 0.001). ADM also correlated to the ECS/ERS- (r = 0.74, p < 0.001) and REVEAL risk scores (r = 0.54, p < 0.001) at pulmonary arterial hypertension diagnosis. Plasma ADM in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients was unaltered at early treatment follow-up compared to baseline (p = ns). Pulmonary arterial hypertension patients with supra-median ADM at diagnosis showed worse overall survival than those with infra-median levels (median survival 34 versus 66 months, p = 0.0077). In conclusion, the present results suggest that baseline plasma ADM levels mirror disease severity, correlating to both ECS/ERS- and the REVEAL risk scores.

Dataset Information

Mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension: prediction by the 2015 European pulmonary hypertension guidelines risk stratification model.

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Mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension: prediction by the 2015 European pulmonary hypertension guidelines risk stratification model.

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