SDM-CropProj - A model-assisted framework to forecast crop environmental suitability and fruit production.

ABSTRACT: The effects of climate change (CC) will impact species ranges, and crops are no exception. Anticipating these changes through forecasting the environmentally suitable area of crops would help to reduce or mitigate the impact and adapt ecological and economic strategies. To forecast the CC effects on crops, we describe here a model-assisted framework (hereafter SDM-CropProj) that combines two modelling steps to be implemented in sequence: i) a multi-technique calibration process and ensemble-forecasting approach to predict the current and future environmental suitability of target crops; ii) a parsimonious univariate log-log linear model to relate the average total annual production to the current SDM-based suitable area. Different metrics for assessing the model's predictive performance sh

SUBMITTER: Arenas-Castro S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8374490 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature