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The casual effects of COVID-19 lockdown on air quality and short-term health impacts in China.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has forced China to lockdown many cities and restrict transportation, industrial, and social activities. This provides a great opportunity to look at the impacts of pandemic quarantine on air quality and premature death due to exposure to air pollution. In this study, we applied the difference-in-differences (DID) model to quantify the casual impacts of COVID-19 lockdown on air quality at 278 cities across China. A widely used exposure-response function was further utilized to estimate the short-term health impacts associated with changes in PM_2.5 due to lockdown. Results show that lockdown has caused drastic reduction in air pollution level in terms of all criteria pollutants except ozone. On average, concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and CO are estimated to drop by 14.3 μg/m³, 22.2 μg/m³, 17.7 μg/m³, 2.9 μg/m³, and 0.18 mg/m³ as the result of lockdown. Cities with more confirmed cases of COVID-19 are related to stronger responses in air quality, despite that similar lockdown measures were implemented by the local governments. The improvement of air quality caused by COVID-19 lockdown in northern cities is found to be smaller than that of southern cities. Avoided premature death associated with PM_2.5 exposures over the 278 cities was estimated to be 50.8 thousand. Our results re-emphasize the effectiveness of emission controls on air quality and associated health impacts. The high cost of lockdown, still high level of air pollution during lockdown and smaller effects in northern cities implies that source-specific mitigation policies are needed for continuous and sustainable reduction of air pollution.

SUBMITTER: Yumin L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8377358 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundExposure to poor air quality leads to increased premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Among the far-reaching implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial improvement in air quality was observed worldwide after the lockdowns imposed by many countries. We aimed to assess the implications of different lockdown measures on air pollution levels in Europe and China, as well as the short-term and long-term health impact.MethodsFor this modelling study, observations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) concentrations from more than 2500 stations in Europe and China during 2016-20 were integrated with chemical transport model simulations to reconstruct PM2·5 fields at high spatiotemporal resolution. The health benefits, expressed as short-term and long-term avoided mortality from PM2·5 exposure associated with the interventions imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic, were quantified on the basis of the latest epidemiological studies. To explore the long-term variability in air quality and associated premature mortality, we built different scenarios of economic recovery (immediate or gradual resumption of activities, a second outbreak in autumn, and permanent lockdown for the whole of 2020).FindingsThe lockdown interventions led to a reduction in population-weighted PM2·5 of 14·5 μg m-3 across China (-29·7%) and 2·2 μg m-3 across Europe (-17·1%), with unprecedented reductions of 40 μg m-3 in bimonthly mean PM2·5 in the areas most affected by COVID-19 in China. In the short term, an estimated 24 200 (95% CI 22 380-26 010) premature deaths were averted throughout China between Feb 1 and March 31, and an estimated 2190 (1960-2420) deaths were averted in Europe between Feb 21 and May 17. We also estimated a positive number of long-term avoided premature fatalities due to reduced PM2·5 concentrations, ranging from 76 400 (95% CI 62 600-86 900) to 287 000 (233 700-328 300) for China, and from 13 600 (11 900-15 300) to 29 500 (25 800-33 300) for Europe, depending on the future scenarios of economic recovery adopted.InterpretationThese results indicate that lockdown interventions led to substantial reductions in PM2·5 concentrations in China and Europe. We estimated that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution were avoided, although with significant differences observed in Europe and China. Our findings suggest that considerable improvements in air quality are achievable in both China and Europe when stringent emission control policies are adopted.FundingNone.

Project description:The diverse climate types and the complex anthropogenic source emissions in China lead to the great regional differences of air pollution mechanisms. The COVID-19 lockdown has given us a precious opportunity to understand the effect of weather conditions and anthropogenic sources on the distribution of air pollutants in different climate zones. In this study, to understand the impact of meteorological and socio-economic factors on air pollution during COVID-19 lockdown, we divided 358 Chinese cities into eight climate regions. Temporal, spatial and diurnal variations of six major air pollutants from January 1 to April 18, 2020 were analyzed. The differences in the characteristics of air pollutants in different climate zones were obvious. PM2.5 reduced by 59.0%-64.2% in cold regions (North-East China (NEC) and North-Western (NW)), while O3 surged by 99.0%-99.9% in warm regions (Central South (CS) and Southern Coast (SC)). Diurnal variations of atmospheric pollutants were also more prominent in cold regions. Moreover, PM2.5, PM10, CO and SO2 showed more prominent reductions (20.5%-64.2%) in heating regions (NEC, NW, NCP and MG) than no-heating regions (0.8%-48%). Climate has less influence on NO2, which dropped by 41.2%-57.1% countrywide during the lockdown. The influences of weather conditions on the atmospheric pollutants in different climate zones were different. The wind speed was not the primary reason for the differences in air pollutants in different climate zones. Temperature, precipitation, and air pollution emissions led to prominent regional differences in air pollutants throughout the eight climates. The effect of temperature on PM, SO2, CO, and NO2 varied obviously with the latitude, at which condition temperature was negatively correlated to PM, SO2, CO, and NO2 in the north but positively in the south. The temperature was positively correlated to ozone in different climate zones, and the correlation was the highest in NEC and the lowest in SC. The rainfall has a strong removal effect on atmospheric pollutants in the climate regions with more precipitation, but it increases the pollutant concentrations in the climate regions with less precipitation. In regions with more emission sources, air pollutants experienced more significant variations and returned to pre-lockdown levels earlier.

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The casual effects of COVID-19 lockdown on air quality and short-term health impacts in China.

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