Area Deprivation Index and Cardiac Readmissions: Evaluating Risk-Prediction in an Electronic Health Record.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Johnson AE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8403312 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Readmissions after hospitalization for pneumonia are common, but the few risk-prediction models have poor to modest predictive ability. Data routinely collected in the electronic health record (EHR) may improve prediction. OBJECTIVE:To develop pneumonia-specific readmission risk-prediction models using EHR data from the first day and from the entire hospital stay ("full stay"). DESIGN:Observational cohort study using stepwise-backward selection and cross-validation. SUBJECTS:Consecutive pneumonia hospitalizations from 6 diverse hospitals in north Texas from 2009-2010. MEASURES:All-cause nonelective 30-day readmissions, ascertained from 75 regional hospitals. RESULTS:Of 1463 patients, 13.6% were readmitted. The first-day pneumonia-specific model included sociodemographic factors, prior hospitalizations, thrombocytosis, and a modified pneumonia severity index; the full-stay model included disposition status, vital sign instabilities on discharge, and an updated pneumonia severity index calculated using values from the day of discharge as additional predictors. The full-stay pneumonia-specific model outperformed the first-day model (C statistic 0.731 vs 0.695; P = 0.02; net reclassification index = 0.08). Compared to a validated multi-condition readmission model, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pneumonia model, and 2 commonly used pneumonia severity of illness scores, the full-stay pneumonia-specific model had better discrimination (C statistic range 0.604-0.681; P < 0.01 for all comparisons), predicted a broader range of risk, and better reclassified individuals by their true risk (net reclassification index range, 0.09-0.18). CONCLUSIONS:EHR data collected from the entire hospitalization can accurately predict readmission risk among patients hospitalized for pneumonia. This approach outperforms a first-day pneumonia-specific model, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pneumonia model, and 2 commonly used pneumonia severity of illness scores. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:209-216.
| S-EPMC6296251 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveEnterprise health information exchange (HIE) and a single electronic health record (EHR) vendor solution are 2 information exchange approaches to improve performance and increase the quality of care. This study sought to determine the association between adoption of enterprise HIE vs a single vendor environment and changes in unplanned readmissions.Materials and methodsThe association between unplanned 30-day readmissions among adult patients and adoption of enterprise HIE or a single vendor environment was measured in a panel of 211 system-member hospitals from 2010 through 2014 using fixed-effects regression models. Sample hospitals were members of health systems in 7 states. Enterprise HIE was defined as self-reported ability to exchange information with other members of the same health system who used different EHR vendors. A single EHR vendor environment reported exchanging information with other health system members, but all using the same EHR vendor.ResultsEnterprise HIE adoption was more common among the study sample than EHR (75% vs 24%). However, adoption of a single EHR vendor environment was associated with a 0.8% reduction in the probability of a readmission within 30 days of discharge. The estimated impact of adopting an enterprise HIE strategy on readmissions was smaller and not statically significant.ConclusionReductions in the probability of an unplanned readmission after a hospital adopts a single vendor environment suggests that HIE technologies can better support the aim of higher quality care. Additionally, health systems may benefit more from a single vendor environment approach than attempting to foster exchange across multiple EHR vendors.
| S-EPMC7792753 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and study aims
The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has funded the development of a patient controlled “Personal Electronic Health Record” (PEPA) as part of their current INFOPAT project. PEPA allows for the exchange of medical data between all interested groups, including the patients thenselves. A PEPA contains medical reports and findings including, for example, x-rays, CT scans and MRIs. The patients can safeguard their information and access all content. The aim of this study is to test the PEPA-prototype for cancer patients being treated at the National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT) in Heidelberg.
Who can participate?
Adult colorectal cancer patients being treated at the National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT) in Heidelberg.
What does the study involve?
There are two part to this study. The first part involves focus groups, in which a group of people are asked their opinion and attitudes towards, for example, an idea, product or service. Here, focus groups are set up that involve the patients, doctors and other health professionals to discuss current problems with the coordination of care offered to cancer patients, as well as discuss what people want to get from using PEPA (i.e. user requirements). The PEPA-prototype is then developed taking into account the conclusions from the focus groups. In the second part of the study, patients are encouraged to use the PEPA-prototype to prepare and follow up meetings with their physicians.
| 2424890 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is conventionally confirmed with oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in 24 to 28 weeks of gestation, but it is still uncertain whether it can be predicted with secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) in early pregnancy. To this purpose, the cost-sensitive hybrid model (CSHM) and five conventional machine learning methods are used to construct the predictive models, capturing the future risks of GDM in the temporally aggregated EHRs. The experimental data sources from a nested case-control study cohort, containing 33,935 gestational women in West China Second Hospital. After data cleaning, 4,378 cases and 50 attributes are stored and collected for the data set. Through selecting the most feasible method, the cost parameter of CSHM is adapted to deal with imbalance of the dataset. In the experiment, 3940 samples are used for training and the rest 438 samples for testing. Although the accuracy of positive samples is barely acceptable (62.16%), the results suggest that the vast majority (98.4%) of those predicted positive instances are real positives. To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply machine learning models with EHRs to predict GDM, which will facilitate personalized medicine in maternal health management in the future.
| S-EPMC5703904 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundUnder the Affordable Care Act, hospitals receive reduced reimbursements for excessive 30-day readmissions. However, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services does not consider social and behavioral variables in expected readmission rate calculations, which may unfairly penalize systems caring for socially disadvantaged patients, including patients with HIV.SettingRandomized controlled trial of patient navigation with or without financial incentives in HIV-positive substance users recruited from the inpatient setting at 11 US hospitals.MethodsExternal validation of an existing 30-day readmission prediction model, using variables available in the electronic health record (EHR-only model), in a new multicenter cohort of HIV-positive substance users was assessed by C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow testing. A second model evaluated sociobehavioral factors in improving the prediction model (EHR-plus model) using multivariable regression and C-statistic with cross-validation.ResultsThe mean age of the cohort was 44.1 years, and participants were predominantly males (67.4%), non-white (88.0%), and poor (62.8%, <$20,000/year). Overall, 17.5% individuals had a hospital readmission within 30 days of initial hospital discharge. The EHR-only model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.70). Inclusion of additional sociobehavioral variables, food insecurity and readiness for substance use treatment, in the EHR-plus model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.74 (0.71 after cross-validation, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 0.77).ConclusionsIncorporation of detailed social and behavioral variables substantially improved the performance of a 30-day readmission prediction model for hospitalized HIV-positive substance users. Our findings highlight the importance of social determinants in readmission risk and the need to ask about, adjust for, and address them.
| S-EPMC6488219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Backgroundfrailty is an especially problematic expression of population ageing. International guidelines recommend routine identification of frailty to provide evidence-based treatment, but currently available tools require additional resource.Objectivesto develop and validate an electronic frailty index (eFI) using routinely available primary care electronic health record data.Study design and settingretrospective cohort study. Development and internal validation cohorts were established using a randomly split sample of the ResearchOne primary care database. External validation cohort established using THIN database.Participantspatients aged 65-95, registered with a ResearchOne or THIN practice on 14 October 2008.Predictorswe constructed the eFI using the cumulative deficit frailty model as our theoretical framework. The eFI score is calculated by the presence or absence of individual deficits as a proportion of the total possible. Categories of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty were defined using population quartiles.Outcomesoutcomes were 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission.Statistical analysishazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration was assessed using pseudo-R(2) estimates.Resultswe include data from a total of 931,541 patients. The eFI incorporates 36 deficits constructed using 2,171 CTV3 codes. One-year adjusted HR for mortality was 1.92 (95% CI 1.81-2.04) for mild frailty, 3.10 (95% CI 2.91-3.31) for moderate frailty and 4.52 (95% CI 4.16-4.91) for severe frailty. Corresponding estimates for hospitalisation were 1.93 (95% CI 1.86-2.01), 3.04 (95% CI 2.90-3.19) and 4.73 (95% CI 4.43-5.06) and for nursing home admission were 1.89 (95% CI 1.63-2.15), 3.19 (95% CI 2.73-3.73) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.92-5.77), with good to moderate discrimination but low calibration estimates.Conclusionsthe eFI uses routine data to identify older people with mild, moderate and severe frailty, with robust predictive validity for outcomes of mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission. Routine implementation of the eFI could enable delivery of evidence-based interventions to improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.
| S-EPMC4846793 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Phenotyping algorithms applied to electronic health record (EHR) data enable investigators to identify large cohorts for clinical and genomic research. Algorithm development is often iterative, depends on fallible investigator intuition, and is time- and labor-intensive. We developed and evaluated 4 types of phenotyping algorithms and categories of EHR information to identify hypertensive individuals and controls and provide a portable module for implementation at other sites. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We reviewed the EHRs of 631 individuals followed at Vanderbilt for hypertension status. We developed features and phenotyping algorithms of increasing complexity. Input categories included International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD9) codes, medications, vital signs, narrative-text search results, and Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts extracted using natural language processing (NLP). We developed a module and tested portability by replicating 10 of the best-performing algorithms at the Marshfield Clinic. RESULTS:Random forests using billing codes, medications, vitals, and concepts had the best performance with a median area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.976. Normalized sums of all 4 categories also performed well (0.959 AUC). The best non-NLP algorithm combined normalized ICD9 codes, medications, and blood pressure readings with a median AUC of 0.948. Blood pressure cutoffs or ICD9 code counts alone had AUCs of 0.854 and 0.908, respectively. Marshfield Clinic results were similar. CONCLUSION:This work shows that billing codes or blood pressure readings alone yield good hypertension classification performance. However, even simple combinations of input categories improve performance. The most complex algorithms classified hypertension with excellent recall and precision.
| S-EPMC5201185 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.
| S-EPMC4859766 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Use of the electronic health record (EHR) is expected to increase rapidly in the near future, yet little research exists on whether analyzing internal EHR data using flexible, adaptive statistical methods could improve clinical risk prediction. Extensive implementation of EHR in the Veterans Health Administration provides an opportunity for exploration.To compare the performance of various approaches for predicting risk of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular (CCV) death, using traditional risk predictors versus more comprehensive EHR data.Retrospective cohort study. We identified all Veterans Health Administration patients without recent CCV events treated at 12 facilities from 2003 to 2007, and predicted risk using the Framingham risk score, logistic regression, generalized additive modeling, and gradient tree boosting.The outcome was CCV-related death within 5 years. We assessed each method's predictive performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, plots of estimated risk, and reclassification tables, using cross-validation to penalize overfitting.Regression methods outperformed the Framingham risk score, even with the same predictors (AUC increased from 71% to 73% and calibration also improved). Even better performance was attained in models using additional EHR-derived predictor variables (AUC increased to 78% and net reclassification improvement was as large as 0.29). Nonparametric regression further improved calibration and discrimination compared with logistic regression.Despite the EHR lacking some risk factors and its imperfect data quality, health care systems may be able to substantially improve risk prediction for their patients by using internally developed EHR-derived models and flexible statistical methodology.
| S-EPMC4081533 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSjögren's disease (SD) is an autoimmune disease that is difficult to diagnose early due to its wide spectrum of clinical symptoms and overlap with other autoimmune diseases. SD potentially presents through early oral manifestations prior to showing symptoms of clinically significant dry eyes or dry mouth. We examined the feasibility of utilizing a linked electronic dental record (EDR) and electronic health record (EHR) dataset to identify factors that could be used to improve early diagnosis prediction of SD in a matched case-control study population.MethodsEHR data, including demographics, medical diagnoses, medication history, serological test history, and clinical notes, were retrieved from the Indiana Network for Patient Care database and dental procedure data were retrieved from the Indiana University School of Dentistry EDR. We examined EHR and EDR history in the three years prior to SD diagnosis for SD cases and the corresponding period in matched non-SD controls. Two conditional logistic regression (CLR) models were built using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression. One used only EHR data and the other used both EHR and EDR data. The ability of these models to predict SD diagnosis was assessed using a concordance index designed for CLR.ResultsWe identified a sample population of 129 cases and 371 controls with linked EDR-EHR data. EHR factors associated with an increased risk of SD diagnosis were the usage of lubricating throat drugs with an odds ratio (OR) of 14.97 (2.70-83.06), dry mouth (OR = 6.19, 2.14-17.89), pain in joints (OR = 2.54, 1.34-4.76), tear film insufficiency (OR = 27.04, 5.37-136.), and rheumatoid factor testing (OR = 6.97, 1.94-25.12). The addition of EDR data slightly improved model concordance compared to the EHR only model (0.834 versus 0.811). Surgical dental procedures (OR = 2.33, 1.14-4.78) were found to be associated with an increased risk of SD diagnosis while dental diagnostic procedures (OR = 0.45, 0.20-1.01) were associated with decreased risk.ConclusionUtilizing EDR data alongside EHR data has the potential to improve prediction models for SD. This could improve the early diagnosis of SD, which is beneficial to slowing or preventing complications of SD.
| S-EPMC10854092 | biostudies-literature