Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Novel strategies are needed to make vaccine efficacy trials more robust given uncertain epidemiology of infectious disease outbreaks, such as arboviruses like Zika. Spatially resolved mathematical and statistical models can help investigators identify sites at highest risk of future transmission and prioritize these for inclusion in trials. Models can also characterize uncertainty in whether transmission will occur at a site, and how nearby or connected sites may have correlated outcomes. A structure is needed for how trials can use models to address key design questions, including how to prioritize sites, the optimal number of sites, and how to allocate participants across sites.

Methods

We illustrate the added value of models using the motivating example of Zika

SUBMITTER: Madewell ZJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8478719 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature