Project description:Policies to improve air quality need to be based on effective plans for reducing anthropogenic emissions. In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant reductions of anthropogenic pollutant emissions, offering an unexpected opportunity to observe their consequences on ambient concentrations. Taking the national lockdown occurred in Italy between March and May 2020 as a case study, this work tries to infer if and what lessons may be learnt concerning the impact of emission reduction policies on air quality. Variations of NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were calculated from numerical model simulations obtained with business as usual and lockdown specific emissions. Both simulations were performed at national level with a horizontal resolution of 4 km, and at local level on the capital city Rome at 1 km resolution. Simulated concentrations showed a good agreement with in-situ observations, confirming the modelling systems capability to reproduce the effects of emission reductions on ambient concentration variations, which differ according to the individual air pollutant. We found a general reduction of pollutant concentrations except for ozone, that experienced an increase in Rome and in the other urban areas, and a decrease elsewhere. The obtained results suggest that acting on precursor emissions, even with sharp reductions like those experienced during the lockdown, may lead to significant, albeit complex, reduction patterns for secondary pollutant concentrations. Therefore, to be more effective, reduction measures should be carefully selected, involving more sectors than those related to mobility, such as residential and agriculture, and integrated on different scales. Graphical abstract Image 1
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has been characterized by unprecedented rates of spatio-temporal spread. Here, we summarize the main events in the pandemic's timeline and evaluate what has been learnt by the public health community. We also discuss the implications for future public health policy and, specifically, the practice of epidemic control. We critically analyze this ongoing pandemic's timeline and contrast it with the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak. We identify specific areas (e.g., pathogen identification and initial reporting) wherein the international community learnt valuable lessons from the SARS outbreak. However, we also identify the key areas where international public health policy failed leading to the exponential spread of the pandemic. We outline a clear agenda for improved pandemic control in the future.
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis. Many countries have implemented restrictions on population movement to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and prevent health systems from becoming overwhelmed; some have instituted full or partial lockdowns. However, lockdowns and other extreme restrictions cannot be sustained for the long term in the hope that there will be an effective vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Governments worldwide now face the common challenge of easing lockdowns and restrictions while balancing various health, social, and economic concerns. To facilitate cross-country learning, this Health Policy paper uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by nine high-income countries and regions that have started to ease COVID-19 restrictions: five in the Asia Pacific region (ie, Hong Kong [Special Administrative Region], Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) and four in Europe (ie, Germany, Norway, Spain, and the UK). This comparative analysis presents important lessons to be learnt from the experiences of these countries and regions. Although the future of the virus is unknown at present, countries should continue to share their experiences, shield populations who are at risk, and suppress transmission to save lives.
Project description:(1) Background: Outcomes with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been worse in those with comorbidities and amongst minorities. In our study, we describe outcomes amongst cancer patients in Detroit, a major COVID-19 hotspot with a predominant inner-city population. (2) Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 85 patients with active invasive cancers who were infected with COVID-19. The primary outcome was death or transition to hospice. (3) Results: The majority were males (55.3%, n = 47), ≤70 years old (58.5%, n = 50), and African Americans (65.5%, n = 55). The most common primary site was prostate (18.8%, n = 16). Inpatient admission was documented in 85.5% (n = 73), ICU admission in 35.3% (n = 30), and primary outcome in 43.8% (n = 32) of hospitalized patients. On a multivariate analysis, factors associated with increased odds of a primary outcome included an age of >70 years versus ≤70 years (OR 4.7, p = 0.012) and of male gender (OR 4.8, p = 0.008). Recent cancer-directed therapy was administered in 66.7% (n = 20) of ICU admissions versus 39.5% (n = 17) of general floor admissions (Chi-square p-value of 0.023). (4) Conclusions: High rates of mortality/transition to hospice and ICU utilization were noted amongst our patients with active invasive cancer, following a COVID-19 infection. Men and those of >70 years of age had a greater than four-fold increase in odds of death or transition to hospice.
Project description:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.
Project description:Respiratory infections with newly emerging zoonotic viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, the etiological agent of COVID-19, often lead to the perturbation of the human innate and adaptive immune responses causing severe disease with high mortality. The responsible mechanisms are commonly virus-specific and often include either over-activated or delayed local interferon responses, which facilitate efficient viral replication in the primary target organ, systemic viral spread, and rapid onset of organ-specific and harmful inflammatory responses. Despite the distinct replication strategies, human infections with SARS-CoV-2 and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses demonstrate remarkable similarities and differences regarding the mechanisms of immune induction, disease dynamics, as well as the long-term sequelae, which will be discussed in this review. In addition, we will highlight some important lessons about the effectiveness of antiviral and immunomodulatory therapeutic strategies that this pandemic has taught us.
Project description:Carbon neutrality, sustainable development and reducing our impact on the environment is the top priority in future measures. The COVID-19 pandemic brought challenges to every sector at a global scale but can provide valuable insight to reach these goals. The main objective of this work is to provide an integrated analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, focused on energy and its related aspects, i.e., environment and costs. Mainland Portugal was used as a case study and two years were analysed, one pre pandemic (2019) and another post pandemic (2020). In 2020, the majority of sectors - Transport, Services, Industry and Agriculture & Fisheries - show a reduction of energy consumption, atmospheric emissions, carbon footprint and related monetary and social costs. In contrast, the Domestic sector presents an overall increase, with maximums of 25.4% in electricity consumption (during Spring), 0.72% in the PM10 (particulate matter) and NOx (nitrogen dioxides) emissions (in Summer), and 2.9% in carbon footprint (in Spring). The integrated analysis proposed in this work was crucial to identify the paths to a post pandemic world focused on the different aspects of sustainability - new concepts of mobility and workplace, as well as increased investment in energy performance and renewable energy sources. This study showed that changing our energy consumption patterns could significantly affect future greenhouse gas emissions, and contribute to the sustainable growth of the economy, while maintaining good progress towards climate-neutral goals.
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic dramatically influenced the delivery of healthcare. In line with the UK Royal Colleges' advice the management of acute appendicitis (AA) changed with greater consideration for non-operative management (NOM) or open appendicectomy when operative management (OM) was sought. We describe our experience of the presentation, management and outcomes for these patients to inform care for future viral pandemics.MethodsThis retrospective, cohort study compared patients diagnosed with AA between March and July 2019 with those during the pandemic period of March to July 2020. Medical records were reviewed to obtain demographics, inflammatory markers, imaging, severity, management, histology, length of stay (LOS) and 90-day outcomes.ResultsThere were 149 and 125 patients in the 2019 and 2020 cohorts respectively. 14 patients (9.4%) had NOM in 2019 versus 31 (24.8%) in 2020 (p = 0.001). In the 2019 operative management (OM) group 125 patients (92.6%) had laparoscopic appendicectomy versus 65 (69.1%) in 2020. 59 patients (39.6%) had a CT in 2019 versus 70 (56%) in 2020. The median LOS was 4 days in 2019 and 3 days in 2020 (p = 0.03). Two patients in each year who received NOM had treatment failure (14.3% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020). Three patients in 2019 who received OM had treatment failure (2.2%). Of 95 patients tested for COVID-19 all but one tested negative.ConclusionDuring the COVID-19 pandemic there was no observed increase in severity of AA, patients had a shorter LOS and were more likely to have imaging. NOM proportionally increased with no observed change in outcomes.
Project description:BackgroundDisease control involves multiple actions overtime to halt the spread of COVID-19. The role of a country's governance in slowing the spread of COVID-19 has not yet been well investigated.ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate the association between governance and the trend of COVID-19 incidence in countries with the highest prevalence. We hypothesized that countries with better governance are more likely to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 than countries with worse governance.MethodsWe analyzed 62 most prevalent countries with at least 10,000 accumulative confirmed cases from January 22 to June 15, 2020. Countries were further grouped into three different levels of governance (25 better governance, 24 fair governance, and 13 worse governance), identified outbreak and mitigation periods using the joinpoint regression model, and compared the number of days and average daily percent change in incidence in two periods by governance level using the one-way analysis of variance.FindingsThe average outbreak period in the 62 countries lasted 84.0 days. Sixty percent of countries (N = 37) had experienced outbreak periods, followed by a mitigation period. In contrast, the rest forty percent of countries (N = 25) still had a rising trend. In the outbreak period, better governance countries had a more rapid increase but a shorter outbreak period (71.2 days) than countries with fair (93.5 days) and worse (90.8 days) governance. Most countries with better governance (84.0%) revealed a declining trend in COVID-19 incidence, while such a trend was less than half of fair and worse governance countries (38.5%-41.7%).ConclusionsCountries with better governance are more resilient during the COVID-19 crisis. While the mitigation of COVID-19 is observed in most better governance countries, the incidence of COVID-19 is still surging in most fair and worse governance countries, and the possibility of a recurring epidemic of COVID-19 in countries cannot be ignored.