Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kirkegaard JB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8677763 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundNovel coronaviruses have emerged and caused major epidemics and pandemics in the past 2 decades, including SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2, which led to the current COVID-19 pandemic. These coronaviruses are marked by their potential to produce disproportionally large transmission clusters from superspreading events (SSEs). As prompt action is crucial to contain and mitigate SSEs, real-time epidemic size estimation could characterize the transmission heterogeneity and inform timely implementation of control measures.ObjectiveThis study aimed to estimate the epidemic size of SSEs to inform effective surveillance and rapid mitigation responses.MethodsWe developed a statistical framework based on back-calculation to estimate the epidemic size of ongoing coronavirus SSEs. We first validated the framework in simulated scenarios with the epidemiological characteristics of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 SSEs. As case studies, we retrospectively applied the framework to the Amoy Gardens SARS outbreak in Hong Kong in 2003, a series of nosocomial MERS outbreaks in South Korea in 2015, and 2 COVID-19 outbreaks originating from restaurants in Hong Kong in 2020.ResultsThe accuracy and precision of the estimation of epidemic size of SSEs improved with longer observation time; larger SSE size; and more accurate prior information about the epidemiological characteristics, such as the distribution of the incubation period and the distribution of the onset-to-confirmation delay. By retrospectively applying the framework, we found that the 95% credible interval of the estimates contained the true epidemic size after 37% of cases were reported in the Amoy Garden SARS SSE in Hong Kong, 41% to 62% of cases were observed in the 3 nosocomial MERS SSEs in South Korea, and 76% to 86% of cases were confirmed in the 2 COVID-19 SSEs in Hong Kong.ConclusionsOur framework can be readily integrated into coronavirus surveillance systems to enhance situation awareness of ongoing SSEs.
| S-EPMC10863650 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Timely detection of an evolving event of an infectious disease with superspreading potential is imperative for territory-wide disease control as well as preventing future outbreaks. While the reproduction number (R) is a commonly-adopted metric for disease transmissibility, the transmission heterogeneity quantified by dispersion parameter k, a metric for superspreading potential is seldom tracked. In this study, we developed an estimation framework to track the time-varying risk of superspreading events (SSEs) and demonstrated the method using the three epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Epidemiological contact tracing data of the confirmed COVID-19 cases from 23 January 2020 to 30 September 2021 were obtained. By applying branching process models, we jointly estimated the time-varying R and k. Individual-based outbreak simulations were conducted to compare the time-varying assessment of the superspreading potential with the typical non-time-varying estimate of k over a period of time. We found that the COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong exhibited substantial superspreading during the initial phase of the epidemics, with only 1 % (95 % Credible interval [CrI]: 0.6-2 %), 5 % (95 % CrI: 3-7 %) and 10 % (95 % CrI: 8-14 %) of the most infectious cases generated 80 % of all transmission for the first, second and third epidemic waves, respectively. After implementing local public health interventions, R estimates dropped gradually and k estimates increased thereby reducing the risk of SSEs to approaching zero. Outbreak simulations indicated that the non-time-varying estimate of k may overlook the possibility of large outbreaks. Hence, an estimation of the time-varying k as a compliment of R as a monitoring of both disease transmissibility and superspreading potential, particularly when public health interventions were relaxed is crucial for minimizing the risk of future outbreaks.
| S-EPMC9872564 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In recent studies such bursty behavior has been characterized by a fat-tailed inter-event time distribution, while temporal correlations were measured by the autocorrelation function. However, these characteristic functions are not capable to fully characterize temporally correlated heterogenous behavior. Here we show that the distribution of the number of events in a bursty period serves as a good indicator of the dependencies, leading to the universal observation of power-law distribution for a broad class of phenomena. We find that the correlations in these quite different systems can be commonly interpreted by memory effects and described by a simple phenomenological model, which displays temporal behavior qualitatively similar to that in real systems.
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Project description:Cells in isogenic populations may differ substantially in their molecular make up because of the stochastic nature of molecular processes. Stochastic bursts in process activity have a great potential for generating molecular noise. They are characterized by (short) periods of high process activity followed by (long) periods of process silence causing different cells to experience activity periods varying in size, duration, and timing. We present an analytically solvable model of bursts in molecular networks, originally developed for the analysis of telecommunication networks. We define general measures for model-independent characterization of bursts (burst size, significance, and duration) from stochastic time series. Inspired by the discovery of bursts in mRNA and protein production by others, we use those indices to investigate the role of stochastic motion of motor proteins along biopolymer chains in determining burst properties. Collisions between neighboring motor proteins can attenuate bursts introduced at the initiation site on the chain. Pausing of motor proteins can give rise to bursts. We investigate how these effects are modulated by the length of the biopolymer chain and the kinetic properties of motion. We discuss the consequences of those results for transcription and translation.
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Project description:Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in the observed data at different spatial and temporal scales, generate estimates of key kinetic parameters, assess the impact of interventions, optimize the impact of control strategies, and generate forecasts. We review and illustrate a simple data assimilation framework for calibrating mathematical models based on ordinary differential equation models to time series data describing the temporal progression of case counts relating to population growth or infectious disease transmission dynamics. In contrast to Bayesian estimation approaches that always raise the question of how to set priors for the parameters, this frequentist approach relies on modeling the error structure in the data. We discuss issues related to parameter identifiability, uncertainty quantification and propagation as well as model performance and forecasts along examples based on phenomenological and mechanistic models parameterized using simulated and real datasets.
| S-EPMC5726591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million. Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age: 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the final cumulative infection incidence was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9). Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.
| S-EPMC7444586 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bursts of nascent mRNA have been shown to lead to substantial cell-cell variation in unicellular organisms, facilitating diverse responses to environmental challenges. It is unknown whether similar bursts and gene-expression noise occur in mammalian tissues. To address this, we combine single molecule transcript counting with dual-color labeling and quantification of nascent mRNA to characterize promoter states, transcription rates, and transcript lifetimes in the intact mouse liver. We find that liver gene expression is highly bursty, with promoters stochastically switching between transcriptionally active and inactive states. Promoters of genes with short mRNA lifetimes are active longer, facilitating rapid response while reducing burst-associated noise. Moreover, polyploid hepatocytes exhibit less noise than diploid hepatocytes, suggesting a possible benefit to liver polyploidy. Thus, temporal averaging and liver polyploidy dampen the intrinsic variability associated with transcriptional bursts. Our approach can be used to study transcriptional bursting in diverse mammalian tissues.
| S-EPMC4500162 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Elderly people had suffered disproportional burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. METHODS:Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were fitted with generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored with interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. RESULTS:A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. Interaction between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p?<?0.001), but not with gender group. People aged 20-39 years led the epidemic processes in the society with two peaks: one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above was trailing behind that of younger people with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations of case counts among young adults. CONCLUSIONS:Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic in the whole society with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from virus infection after the peak of epidemic.
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Project description:Influenza B viruses have circulated in humans for over 80 y, causing a significant disease burden. Two antigenically distinct lineages ("B/Victoria/2/87-like" and "B/Yamagata/16/88-like," termed Victoria and Yamagata) emerged in the 1970s and have cocirculated since 2001. Since 2015 both lineages have shown unusually high levels of epidemic activity, the reasons for which are unclear. By analyzing over 12,000 influenza B virus genomes, we describe the processes enabling the long-term success and recent resurgence of epidemics due to influenza B virus. We show that following prolonged diversification, both lineages underwent selective sweeps across the genome and have subsequently taken alternate evolutionary trajectories to exhibit epidemic dominance, with no reassortment between lineages. Hemagglutinin deletion variants emerged concomitantly in multiple Victoria virus clades and persisted through epistatic mutations and interclade reassortment-a phenomenon previously only observed in the 1970s when Victoria and Yamagata lineages emerged. For Yamagata viruses, antigenic drift of neuraminidase was a major driver of epidemic activity, indicating that neuraminidase-based vaccines and cross-reactivity assays should be employed to monitor and develop robust protection against influenza B morbidity and mortality. Overall, we show that long-term diversification and infrequent selective sweeps, coupled with the reemergence of hemagglutinin deletion variants and antigenic drift of neuraminidase, are factors that contributed to successful circulation of diverse influenza B clades. Further divergence of hemagglutinin variants with poor cross-reactivity could potentially lead to circulation of 3 or more distinct influenza B viruses, further complicating influenza vaccine formulation and highlighting the urgent need for universal influenza vaccines.
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