Dataset Information

Prediction Model of in-Hospital Venous Thromboembolism in Chinese Adult Patients after Hernia Surgery: The CHAT Score.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) events after hernia surgery influence prognosis and life quality and may be preventable. This study aimed to develop a useful model for predicting in-hospital VTE in Chinese patients after hernia surgery.

Methods

Patients after hernia surgery were retrospectively recruited from 58 institutions (n = 14 322). Totally, 36 potential predictors were involved in the regression analysis. Weighted points were assigned to the predictors of in-hospital VTE identified in the multivariate logistic regression analysis and a prediction model was established. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefit between the established and Caprini models.

Results

A total of 11 707 patients were included and five variables were explored as predictors related to in-hospital VTE: varicose veins of lower extremity, history of VTE, family history of thrombosis, interruption of antithrombotic agents, and reducible hernia. The prediction model (the CHAT score) revealed a good performance metrics (c-statistic, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.81]; Nagelkerke R², 0.27 [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.30]; Brier score, 0.16 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.23]). The rate of in-hospital VTE after hernia surgery at low-risk (-4 points), intermediate-risk (0-1 points), high-risk (4 points) and very high-risk (≥5 points) were 0.05%, 0.39%, 0.73% and 8.62%, respectively. The CHAT score identified a considerable variability (from 0.05% to 8.62%) for in-hospital VTE among the overall population after hernia surgery. Decision curve analysis found a superior net benefit of the established model than the Caprini score.

Conclusions

The CHAT score is likely to be a practical 5-item supporting tool to identify patients at high risk of in-hospital VTE after hernia surgery that might assist in decision making and VTE prevention. Further validated study will strengthen this finding.

SUBMITTER: Gu ZC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8725045 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveVenous thromboembolism (VTE) is reported to occur in up to 33% of patients undergoing major vascular surgery. Despite this high incidence, patients inconsistently receive timely VTE chemoprophylaxis. The true incidence of VTE among patients receiving delayed VTE chemoprophylaxis is unknown. We sought to identify the association of VTE chemoprophylaxis timing on VTE risk, postoperative transfusion rates, and 30-day mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing major open vascular surgery.MethodsPatients undergoing major open vascular surgery (open abdominal aortic aneurysm [oAAA] repair, aortofemoral bypass, and lower extremity infrainguinal bypass [LEB]) were identified using the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative (MSQC) between July 2012 and June 2015. The VTE rate was compared between patients receiving early versus delayed VTE chemoprophylaxis. VTE chemoprophylaxis delay was defined as therapy initiation more than 24 hours after surgery. The risk-adjusted association of the chemoprophylaxis timing and VTE development was determined using multivariable logistic regression. Blood transfusion rates, 30-day mortality, and postoperative complications were compared across groups.ResultsA total of 2421 patients underwent major open vascular surgery, including 196 oAAA repair, 259 aortofemoral bypass, and 1966 LEB. The overall incidence of 30-day VTE was 1.40%, ranging from 1.12% for LEB to 3.57% for oAAA repair. Among patients receiving early VTE chemoprophylaxis, the rate of VTE was 0.78% versus 2.26% among those with a delay in VTE chemoprophylaxis (P = .002). When accounting for the preoperative risk of VTE, delayed chemoprophylaxis was associated with a significantly higher risk of VTE (odds ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-5.06; P = .024). The early VTE chemoprophylaxis group was associated with a significantly decreased risk of bleeding compared with those with a delay (14.31% vs 18.90%; P = .002). Overall 30-day mortality and postoperative complications were similar with the exception of an associated higher rate of infectious complications in the delayed VTE chemoprophylaxis group, including superficial surgical site infection (6.00% vs 4.06%; P = .028), pneumonia (3.25% vs 1.85%; P = .028), urinary tract infection (2.95% vs 1.57%; P = .020), and severe sepsis (3.05% vs 1.71%; P = .029).ConclusionsAlthough patients undergoing major open vascular surgery have a low risk of VTE at baseline, there is a significantly greater risk of developing VTE among patients who have a delay in the administration of VTE chemoprophylaxis. Postoperative transfusion rates were significantly lower among patients receiving early chemoprophylaxis. There were no differences in the 30-day mortality and postoperative complications, except for infectious complications. Given these findings, surgeons should consider early chemoprophylaxis in the postoperative setting after major open vascular surgery without contraindication.

Project description:ImportanceThe size of the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) after surgery in patients with a history of VTE is not well known.ObjectivesTo estimate the risk of and to identify the factors associated with recurrent VTE in patients undergoing surgery who have a history of VTE.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based, follow-up cohort study includes patients with VTE who participated in the Multiple Environment and Genetic Assessment (MEGA) study. Original data were collected from March 1999 to April 2010. Data analysis began in June 1999 and ended in April 2010.ExposuresSurgery following a first VTE.Main outcomes and measurementsKaplan-Meier analyses were used to estimate cumulative incidences of recurrent VTE. Cox regression with a time-dependent covariate (surgery) was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for developing recurrent VTE after surgery compared with no surgery.ResultsOverall, 3741 patients (mean [SD] age, 48.4 [12.8] years; 2020 [54.0%] women) with a history of VTE were included in the analysis, amounting to 18?899 person-years, with a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.7 (3.0-7.2) years. Of the 3741 patients, 580 (15.5%) underwent surgery and 601 (16.1%) developed a recurrent thrombotic event. The 1-month cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE for all surgery types was 2.1% (95% CI, 1.2%-3.6%), which increased to 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1%-5.1%) at 3 months and 4.6% (95% CI, 3.1%-6.6%) at 6 months. At 6 months, risk of recurrent VTE ranged from 2.3% to 9.3%, depending on surgery type. In addition to surgery type, factor V Leiden mutation (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.6-7.4) and male sex (HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3-5.8) were associated with increased risk of recurrent VTE.Conclusions and relevanceSurgery was associated with an increased risk of recurrent VTE in patients with a history of VTE; risk remained high for up to 6 months after the procedure. This study suggests that high-risk individuals may be identified based on surgery type, sex, and the presence of factor V Leiden mutation. These findings stress the need for revision of the current thromboprophylactic approach to prevent recurrence in these patients.

Project description:BackgroundVenous thromboembolism (VTE) has been associated with a higher risk of developing malignancy and mortality, and patients with VTE may therefore benefit from increased surveillance. We aimed to construct a clinical predictive score that could classify patients with VTE according to their risk for developing these outcomes.MethodsObservational cohort study using an existing clinical registry in a tertiary academic teaching hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 1264 adult patients greater than 17 years of age presented new VTE between June 2006 and December 2011 and were included in the registry. We excluded patients with previous or incident cancer, those who died during the first month, and those with less than one year of follow up (< 5%). 540 patients were included. Primary outcome was new cancer diagnosis during one year of follow-up, secondary composite outcome was any new cancer diagnosis or death. The score was developed using a multivariable logistic regression model to predict cancer or death.ResultsDuring follow-up, one-quarter (26.4%) of patients developed cancer (9.2%) or died (23.7%). Patients with the primary outcome had more comorbidities, were more likely to have previous thromboembolism and less likely to have recent surgery. The final score developed for predicting cancer alone included previous episode of VTE, recent surgery and comorbidity (Charlson comorbidity score), [AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.66-0.84) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.63-0.95) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively]. The version of this score developed to predict cancer or death included age, albumin level, comorbidity, previous episode of VTE, and recent surgery [AUC = 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.78) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively].ConclusionsA simple clinical predictive score accurately estimates patients' risk of developing cancer or death following newly diagnosed VTE. This tool could be used to help reassure low risk patients, or to identify high-risk patients that might benefit from closer surveillance and additional investigations.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01372514.