Evaluation of the Khorana score for prediction of venous thromboembolism in patients with multiple myeloma.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Guidelines recommend thromboprophylaxis for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at high risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, the optimal risk prediction model for VTE in MM remains unclear. Khorana et al developed a VTE risk score (Khorana score) in ambulatory cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of the Khorana score in patients with MM.Methods
We identified patients with MM within the Veterans Affairs health care system between 2006 and 2013. The Khorana score was calculated before treatment initiation. Using logistic regression, the relationship between risk group and VTE was assessed at 3 and 6 months. We tested model discrimination using the concordance statistic.Results
In the cohort of 2870 patients with MM, there were 1328 at low risk (0 points), 1521 at intermediate risk (1-2 points), and 21 at high risk (≥3 points) for VTE by the Khorana score. The 6-month cumulative incidence of VTE was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0%-6.4%) in low risk, 3.9% (95% CI, 3.0%-5.0%) in intermediate risk, 4.8% (95% CI, 0.3%-20.2%) in high risk. The Khorana score did not strongly discriminate between patients who did and did not develop VTEs at 3 or 6 months (concordance statistic, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.54-0.63; and 0.53, 95% CI, 0.50-0.57, respectively.Conclusions
In conclusion, in this cohort of 2870 patients with MM, the Khorana score did not predict VTE. Our study supports the need to use myeloma-specific risk models to predict VTE risk in patients with MM.
SUBMITTER: Sanfilippo KM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8742966 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the Khorana venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk score (KRS) is well recognized as a simple VTE risk assessment method in patients with cancer, whether it is suitable for Asian populations is unclear.ObjectivesThis study validated KRS for the prediction of VTE and investigated the value of the KRS in predicting mortality in Japanese patients with cancer.MethodsA body mass index value of 25 kg/m2 or more was defined as obesity according to World Health Organization consensus. A total of 27,687 patients with cancer were subdivided into low- (0), intermediate- (1-2), and high-score (3) groups by the KRS. The primary and secondary endpoints were VTE and all-cause mortality, respectively.ResultsThe prevalence of VTE was 1.7%, 7.3%, and 11.0% for low-, intermediate-, and high-score patients, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the KRS significantly predicted VTE (area under the curve, 0.679; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.666-0.692; P < 0.001). The cutoff value for the KRS was 1.0. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the KRS was an independent predictor of VTE (odds ratio 1.766; 95% CI 1.673-1.865; P < 0.01). The cutoff value of the KRS for all-cause mortality determined by ROC analysis was 2.0. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher incidence of mortality in the KRS ≥2 group than in the KRS 0-1 group (log-rank: P < 0.01).ConclusionsThe KRS was useful in Japanese patients with cancer and might be a potentially useful marker for the prediction of mortality. Establishing optimal scores for Japanese subjects is mandatory because of its low diagnostic ability. (KUMAMON Cancer registry; UMIN000047554).
| S-EPMC9627826 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to evaluate the performance of the Khorana score in predicting venous thromboembolic events in ambulatory cancer patients. Embase and MEDLINE were searched from January 2008 to June 2018 for studies which evaluated the Khorana score. Two authors independently screened studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Additional data on the 6-month incidence of venous thromboembolism were sought by contacting corresponding authors. The incidence in each Khorana score risk group was estimated with random effects meta-analysis. A total of 45 articles and eight abstracts were included, comprising 55 cohorts enrolling 34,555 ambulatory cancer patients. For 27,849 patients (81%), 6-month follow-up data were obtained. Overall, 19% of patients had a Khorana score of 0 points, 64% a score of 1 or 2 points, and 17% a score of 3 or more points. The incidence of venous thromboembolism in the first six months was 5.0% (95%CI: 3.9-6.5) in patients with a low-risk Khorana score (0 points), 6.6% (95%CI: 5.6-7.7) in those with an intermediate-risk Khorana score (1 or 2 points), and 11.0% (95%CI: 8.8-13.8) in those with a high-risk Khorana score (3 points or higher). Of the patients with venous thromboembolism in the first six months, 23.4% (95%CI: 18.4-29.4) had been classified as high risk according to the Khorana score. In conclusion, the Khorana score can be used to select ambulatory cancer patients at high risk of venous thromboembolism for thromboprophylaxis; however, most events occur outside this high-risk group.
| S-EPMC6545838 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Khorana score is a validated tool to identify cancer patients at higher risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE).ObjectiveWe compared its predictive performance to that of the clinical PROTECHT and the polygenic 5-SNP scores in patients who participated in the Dutch CPCT-02 study.Patients/methodsData on VTE and its risk factors were retrospectively collected for 2729 patients with advanced stage solid tumors planned for systemic cancer treatment. Patients were followed for 6 months. Overall discriminatory performance of the scores was evaluated by time-dependent c-indices. The scores were additionally evaluated dichotomously in competing risk models.ResultsA total of 160 (5.9%) patients developed VTE during follow-up. Time-dependent c-indices at 6 months for the Khorana, PROTECHT, and 5-SNP scores were 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55-0.60), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.57-0.62), and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.51-0.57), respectively. The dichotomous scores classified 9.6%, 16.8%, and 9.5% as high-risk, respectively. VTE risk was about 2-fold higher among high-risk patients than low-risk patients for the Khorana (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-3.0), PROTECHT (SHR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-3.0), and 5-SNP scores (SHR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.03-2.8). The sensitivity at 6 months was 16.6% (95% CI: 10.5-22.7), 28.9% (95% CI: 21.5-36.3), and 14.9% (95% CI: 8.5-21.2), respectively.ConclusionsPerformance of the PROTECHT or 5-SNP score was not superior to that of the Khorana score. The majority of cancer patients who developed VTE during 6-month follow-up were not identified by these scores. Future directions for studies on cancer-associated VTE prediction may include combined clinical-genetic scores.
| S-EPMC9291564 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Khorana score is recommended for guiding primary venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in cancer patients, but its clinical utility overall and across cancer types remains debatable. Also, some previous validation studies have ignored the competing risk of death, hereby potentially overestimating VTE risk. We identified ambulatory cancer patients initiating chemotherapy without other indications for anticoagulation using Danish health registries and estimated 6-month cumulative incidence of VTE stratified by Khorana levels. Analyses were conducted with and without considering death as a competing risk using the Kaplan-Meier method vs the cumulative incidence function. Analyses were performed overall and stratified by cancer types. Of 40 218 patients, 35.4% were categorized by Khorana as low risk (score 0), 53.6% as intermediate risk (score 1 to 2), and 10.9% as high risk (score ≥3). Considering competing risk of death, the corresponding 6-month risks of VTE were 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.7), 2.8% (95% CI, 2.6-3.1), and 4.1% (95% CI, 3.5-4.7), respectively. Among patients recommended anticoagulation by guidelines (Khorana score ≥2), the 6-month risk was 3.6% (95% CI, 3.3-3.9). Kaplan-Meier analysis overestimated incidence up to 23% compared with competing risk analyses. Using the guideline-recommended threshold of ≥2, the Khorana score did not risk-stratify patients with hepatobiliary or pancreatic cancer, lung cancer, and gynecologic cancer. In conclusion, the Khorana score was able to stratify ambulatory cancer patients according to the risk of VTE, but not for all cancer types. Absolute risks varied by methodology but were lower than in key randomized trials. Thus, although certain limitations with outcome identification using administrative registries apply, the absolute benefit of implementing routine primary thromboprophylaxis in an unselected cancer population may be smaller than seen in randomized trials.
| S-EPMC9131922 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with multiple myeloma (MM). The International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) developed guidelines recommending primary thromboprophylaxis, in those identified at high-risk of VTE by the presence of risk factors. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) has adopted these guidelines; however, they lack validation. We sought to develop and validate a risk prediction score for VTE in MM and to evaluate the performance of the current IMWG/NCCN guidelines. Using 4446 patients within the Veterans Administration Central Cancer Registry, we used time-to-event analyses to develop a risk score for VTE in patients with newly diagnosed MM starting chemotherapy. We externally validated the score using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER)-Medicare database (N = 4256). After identifying independent predictors of VTE, we combined the variables to develop the IMPEDE VTE score (Immunomodulatory agent; Body Mass Index ?25?kg/m2 ; Pelvic, hip or femur fracture; Erythropoietin stimulating agent; Dexamethasone/Doxorubicin; Asian Ethnicity/Race; VTE history; Tunneled line/central venous catheter; Existing thromboprophylaxis). The score showed satisfactory discrimination in the derivation cohort, c-statistic = 0.66. Risk of VTE significantly increased as score increased (hazard ratio 1.20, P =?<.0001). Within the external validation cohort, IMPEDE VTE had a c-statistic of 0.64. For comparison, when evaluating the performance of the IMWG/NCCN guidelines, the c-statistic was 0.55. In summary, the IMPEDE VTE score outperformed the current IMWG/NCCN guidelines and could be considered as the new standard risk stratification for VTE in MM.
| S-EPMC7058359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn multiple myeloma, venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common, and treatments for myeloma, such as lenalidomide, increase the risk of thrombosis while improving survival. The association between VTE and survival is not well known.ObjectivesTo determine the association between VTE and survival in multiple myeloma (MM) while adjusting for known confounders that affect risk of thrombosis and survival, including patient characteristics and treatment in a retrospective cohort of US veterans.Patients/methodsA cohort of patients with newly diagnosed MM treated within Veterans Health Administration between September 1, 1999, and June 30, 2014, was created to assess the association between VTE and mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling while accounting for known prognostic factors and treatments.ResultsThe cohort comprised 4446 patients with myeloma, including 2837 patients diagnosed after lenalidomide approval in July 2006. VTE occurred in 327 (7.4%) patients within 1 year and occurred at a median of 77 days (interquartile range, 37-153) after starting therapy for MM. In all patients, VTE was associated with increased mortality at 6 months (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-2.37). Patients in the post-lenalidomide cohort with VTE had an increased mortality at both 6 months (aHR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.52-3.51) and 12 months (aHR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.19-2.33) after treatment initiation.DiscussionThis study shows that VTE during the first 6-12 months of therapy is associated with increased mortality in patients with MM. Studies evaluating thromboprophylaxis in patients at high risk of thrombosis are needed.
| S-EPMC7590313 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionVTE-BLEED is a validated score for identification of patients at increased risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE). It is unknown whether VTE-BLEED high-risk patients also have an increased risk for recurrent VTE, which would limit the potential usefulness of the score.MethodsThis was a post hoc analysis of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled PADIS-PE trial that randomized patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism (PE) initially treated during 6 months to receive an additional 18-month of warfarin vs. placebo. The primary outcome of this analysis was recurrent VTE during 2-year follow-up after anticoagulant discontinuation, that is, after the initial 6-month treatment in the placebo arm and after 24 months of anticoagulation in the active treatment arm. This rate, adjusted for study treatment allocation, was compared between patients in the high- vs. low-risk VTE-BLEED group.ResultsIn complete case analysis (n = 308; 82.4% of total population), 89 (28.9%) patients were classified as high risk; 44 VTE events occurred after anticoagulant discontinuation during 668 patient-years. The cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE was 16.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.0%-26.1%; 14 events) and 14.6% (95% CI, 10.4%-20.3%; 30 events) in the high-risk and low-risk VTE-BLEED groups, respectively, for an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% CI, 0.62-2.19).ConclusionIn this study, patients with unprovoked PE classified at high risk of major bleeding by VTE-BLEED did not have a higher incidence of recurrent VTE after cessation of anticoagulant therapy, supporting the potential yield of the score for making management decisions on the optimal duration of anticoagulant therapy.
| S-EPMC6611364 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs), including thalidomide, lenalidomide, and pomalidomide, have improved survival of patients with multiple myeloma (MM). However, these therapies are associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Apixaban has been approved for treatment of acute VTE and for risk reduction of recurrent VTE following initial therapy. In this phase IV single-arm study (NCT02958969), we aim to prospectively evaluate the safety and efficacy of apixaban for primary prevention of VTE in patients with MM. The primary efficacy objective of this trial is to determine the rate of symptomatic VTE, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), over 6 months. The primary safety objective is to determine the rate of major bleeding in MM patients receiving apixaban prophylaxis. If proven safe and effective, apixaban will emerge as a promising option for oral VTE prophylaxis in MM patients.
| S-EPMC6401636 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVenous thromboembolism (VTE) is one of the most common and severe complications of multiple myeloma (MM). The aim of this study was to learn about the current awareness regarding MM-associated VTE among Chinese hematologists.MethodsA nationwide, online, questionnaire-based survey was sent to the specialized hematologists in mainland China. The questionnaire investigated respondents' demographic and occupational characteristics, their ability to identify VTE risk factors, and their thromboprophylaxis decisions for different anti-MM regimens. Six clinical vignettes were used to evaluate hematologists' awareness of stratified thromboprophylaxis. The data were analyzed using SPSS software.ResultsA total of 518 valid questionnaires were received. Of the 518 hematologists investigated, only 23.7% of them could identify VTE-related risk factors correctly. Most hematologists could select appropriate thromboprophylaxis for common anti-MM regimens such as VCd (bortezomib, cyclophosphamide, and dexamethasone) and VRd (bortezomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone), but not for uncommon ones such as VTD-PACE (bortezomib, thalidomide, dexamethasone, cisplatin, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and etoposide) and KRd (carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone). The results from the vignettes suggested that only 19.5% of the hematologists could be defined as the 'stratified thromboprophylaxis' group, and the awareness of stratified thromboprophylaxis depended significantly on physicians' age and working seniority.ConclusionThe results of our study showed that a large proportion of Chinese hematologists failed to recognize the VTE risk factors, most of them cannot select appropriate thromboprophylaxis for different MM therapeutic regimens and lack awareness of stratified thromboprophylaxis for MM-associated VTE. A standard VTE prevention guideline is urgently needed for the Chinese myeloma group. Continuous education for new professionals should be encouraged. A VTE collaborative group is supposed to be established in each hospital to enhance the overall medical care for VTE patients.
| S-EPMC10836272 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVenous thromboembolism (VTE) events after hernia surgery influence prognosis and life quality and may be preventable. This study aimed to develop a useful model for predicting in-hospital VTE in Chinese patients after hernia surgery.MethodsPatients after hernia surgery were retrospectively recruited from 58 institutions (n = 14 322). Totally, 36 potential predictors were involved in the regression analysis. Weighted points were assigned to the predictors of in-hospital VTE identified in the multivariate logistic regression analysis and a prediction model was established. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefit between the established and Caprini models.ResultsA total of 11 707 patients were included and five variables were explored as predictors related to in-hospital VTE: varicose veins of lower extremity, history of VTE, family history of thrombosis, interruption of antithrombotic agents, and reducible hernia. The prediction model (the CHAT score) revealed a good performance metrics (c-statistic, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.81]; Nagelkerke R2, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.30]; Brier score, 0.16 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.23]). The rate of in-hospital VTE after hernia surgery at low-risk (-4 points), intermediate-risk (0-1 points), high-risk (4 points) and very high-risk (≥5 points) were 0.05%, 0.39%, 0.73% and 8.62%, respectively. The CHAT score identified a considerable variability (from 0.05% to 8.62%) for in-hospital VTE among the overall population after hernia surgery. Decision curve analysis found a superior net benefit of the established model than the Caprini score.ConclusionsThe CHAT score is likely to be a practical 5-item supporting tool to identify patients at high risk of in-hospital VTE after hernia surgery that might assist in decision making and VTE prevention. Further validated study will strengthen this finding.
| S-EPMC8725045 | biostudies-literature