Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic.
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SUBMITTER: Vilches TN
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8753510 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundData suggest that the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ among U.S. racial/ethnic groups.PurposeTo evaluate racial/ethnic disparities in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection rates and COVID-19 outcomes, factors contributing to disparities, and interventions to reduce them. (PROSPERO: CRD42020187078).Data sourcesEnglish-language articles in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus, searched from inception through 31 August 2020. Gray literature sources were searched through 2 November 2020.Study selectionObservational studies examining SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, or deaths by race/ethnicity in U.S. settings.Data extractionSingle-reviewer abstraction confirmed by a second reviewer; independent dual-reviewer assessment of quality and strength of evidence.Data synthesis37 mostly fair-quality cohort and cross-sectional studies, 15 mostly good-quality ecological studies, and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and APM Research Lab were included. African American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and COVID-19-related mortality compared with non-Hispanic White populations, but not higher case-fatality rates (mostly reported as in-hospital mortality) (moderate- to high-strength evidence). Asian populations experience similar outcomes to non-Hispanic White populations (low-strength evidence). Outcomes for other racial/ethnic groups have been insufficiently studied. Health care access and exposure factors may underlie the observed disparities more than susceptibility due to comorbid conditions (low-strength evidence).LimitationsSelection bias, missing race/ethnicity data, and incomplete outcome assessments in cohort and cross-sectional studies must be considered. In addition, adjustment for key demographic covariates was lacking in ecological studies.ConclusionAfrican American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related mortality but similar rates of case fatality. Differences in health care access and exposure risk may be driving higher infection and mortality rates.Primary funding sourceDepartment of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, Health Services Research & Development.
| S-EPMC7772883 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceVaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.Design, setting, and participantsAn established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population.ExposuresScenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution.Main outcomes and measuresRisks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25% coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75% coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with the worst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13% [1%] and 8% [1%], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceSimulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed.
| S-EPMC8170542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.
| S-EPMC8619872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions.MethodsWe used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021.FindingsA 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9).InterpretationAccelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections.FundingThis study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund. SMM acknowledges the support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [OV4 - 170643, COVID-19 Rapid Research] and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling, MfPH grant. MCF acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health (5 K01 AI141576).
| S-EPMC8714489 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Rotavirus is the leading cause of hospitalizations and deaths from diarrhea. 33 African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines by 2016. We estimate reductions in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths for countries using rotavirus vaccination in national immunization programs and the potential of vaccine introduction across the continent. Areas covered: Regional rotavirus burden data were reviewed to calculate hospitalization rates, and applied to under-5 population to estimate baseline hospitalizations. Rotavirus mortality was based on 2013 WHO estimates. Regional pre-licensure vaccine efficacy and post-introduction vaccine effectiveness studies were used to estimate summary effectiveness, and vaccine coverage was applied to calculate prevented hospitalizations and deaths. Uncertainties around input parameters were propagated using boot-strapping simulations. In 29 African countries that introduced rotavirus vaccination prior to end 2014, 134,714 (IQR 112,321-154,654) hospitalizations and 20,986 (IQR 18,924-22,822) deaths were prevented in 2016. If all African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines at benchmark immunization coverage, 273,619 (47%) (IQR 227,260-318,102) hospitalizations and 47,741 (39%) (IQR 42,822-52,462) deaths would have been prevented. Expert commentary: Rotavirus vaccination has substantially reduced hospitalizations and deaths in Africa; further reductions are anticipated as additional countries implement vaccination. These estimates bolster wider introduction and continued support of rotavirus vaccination programs.
| S-EPMC6829907 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination frequently leads to minor side-effects, that may be more intense after the second dose, but more serious side effects have been reported. We report a case of a 24-year-old man who presented to the hospital with acute substernal chest pain, 4 days after his second COVID-19 Moderna vaccination. Laboratory studies revealed elevated troponins and negative viral serologies. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI) demonstrated edema and delayed gadolinium enhancement of the left ventricle in a midmyocardial and epicardial distribution. The patient was diagnosed with myocarditis following Moderna vaccination. Our case report raises concern that myocarditis is a rare side effect of COVID-19 vaccine. Despite our report, it appears that there is a significantly higher risk of cardiac involvement from COVID-19 infection compared to COVID-19 vaccination.
| S-EPMC8130498 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract Messenger RNA vaccines are the main COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the United States. Side effects are typically minor and transient. We report a case series of four subjects with an acute myocarditis-like illness following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination who were hospitalized at our hospital in Lubbock, Texas. Three patients were young men who presented with acute chest pain after the second dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine. Another patient was a 53-year-old white woman who presented with acute left arm pain 3 days after the first dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine. She was later found to have acute decompensated heart failure, and endomyocardial biopsy revealed eosinophilic injury–mediated myocarditis.
| S-EPMC8607537 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8483649 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundClinical trials of the BNT162b2 vaccine, revealed efficacy and safety. We report six cases of myocarditis, which occurred shortly after BNT162b2 vaccination.MethodsPatients were identified upon presentation to the emergency department with symptoms of chest pain/discomfort. In all study patients, we excluded past and current COVID-19. Routine clinical and laboratory investigations for common etiologies of myocarditis were performed. Laboratory tests also included troponin and C-reactive protein levels. The diagnosis of myocarditis was established after cardiac MRI.FindingsFive patients presented after the second and one after the first dose of the vaccine. All patients were males with a median age of 23 years. Myocarditis was diagnosed in all patients, there was no evidence of COVID-19 infection. Laboratory assays excluded concomitant infection; autoimmune disorder was considered unlikely. All patients responded to the BNT162b2 vaccine. The clinical course was mild in all six patients.InterpretationOur report of myocarditis after BNT162b2 vaccination may be possibly considered as an adverse reaction following immunization. We believe our information should be interpreted with caution and further surveillance is warranted.
| S-EPMC8162819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased burden on healthcare systems with subsequent reductions in non-emergent hospitalizations and procedures. While there are widespread reports of intentional reductions in elective hospitalizations, trends in urgent or emergent hospitalizations including heart failure (HF) hospitalizations have not been adequately characterized. Methods:We evaluated trends of HF hospitalizations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic at the University of Mississippi Medical Center using electronic health records and discharge database. We also compared HF hospitalization trends during the same time frame in 2019 to account for seasonal variation in HF presentations. Results:Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in our medical center, a mean of 30 patients per week were admitted with a principal diagnosis of HF. After the first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Mississippi, there was a sharp 50% decline in the number of HF hospitalizations that declined even further after a "state of emergency" was declared in Mississippi. Conclusions:Based on observations from a large academic medical center, there has been a significant reduction in the number of patients hospitalized for HF during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further investigation of these trends is warranted to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term HF outcomes.
| S-EPMC7219367 | biostudies-literature