Assessment of COVID-19 intervention strategies in the Nordic countries using genomic epidemiology
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Duchene S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8755353 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundWith no vaccines or specific treatments, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only tools for controlling the human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 disease, which appeared in Wuhan, China last December and has spread globally since. Here we describe and compare the first-wave mitigation strategies and epidemiology of five Asia-Pacific countries that responded rapidly to the epidemic.MethodsFrom January to April 2020, mitigation measures and epidemiological data for Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong were screened from official local government websites and a review of investigational studies was conducted. Daily case reports and mitigation measures information were extracted. Epidemiological estimates were calculated and compared between countries.ResultsAll five countries combined measures, focusing on contact tracing, testing, isolation efforts and healthcare management. Epidemiological data varied temporally and geographically: incubation period ranged 3.9-7.1 days, effective reproduction number at time t (Rt) ranged 0.48-1.5, with intensive care admissions 1-3% of hospitalised patients, and case fatality rates were 0.1-3%. Extrinsic estimates to the virus were lower than global estimates.ConclusionImplemented mitigation strategies in these countries allowed a rapid and successful control or delay of the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. These are valuable examples to inform subsequent waves.
| S-EPMC8505019 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.
| S-EPMC7349853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The emerging SARS-CoV-2 viral disease (COVID-19) has caused a global health alert due to its high rate of infection and mortality in individuals with chronic cardiovascular comorbidities, in addition to generating complex clinical conditions. This has forced the scientific community to explore different strategies that allow combating this viral infection as well as treating life-threatening systemic effect of the infection on the individual. In this work, we have reviewed the most recent scientific evidence to provide a comprehensive panorama regarding the biotechnological strategies that have been proposed to combat this new viral infection. We have focused our analysis on vaccine production, nanotechnology applications, repurposing of know drugs for unrelated pathologies, and the search for bioactive molecules obtained from natural products. The goals include safely use as potential prophylactic or therapeutic treatments, based on in silico and in vivo studies, including clinical trials around the world for the correct and timely diagnosis of the infection. This review aims to highlight the development of new ideas that can decrease the time lines for research output and improve research quality while at the same time, keeping in mind the efficacy and safety aspects of these potential biotechnological strategies.
| S-EPMC7796695 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Analysis of genetic sequence data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can provide insights into epidemic origins, worldwide dispersal, and epidemiological history. With few exceptions, genomic epidemiological analysis has focused on geographically distributed data sets with few isolates in any given location. Here, we report an analysis of 20 whole SARS- CoV-2 genomes from a single relatively small and geographically constrained outbreak in Weifang, People's Republic of China. Using Bayesian model-based phylodynamic methods, we estimate a mean basic reproduction number (R 0) of 3.4 (95% highest posterior density interval: 2.1-5.2) in Weifang, and a mean effective reproduction number (Rt) that falls below 1 on 4 February. We further estimate the number of infections through time and compare these estimates to confirmed diagnoses by the Weifang Centers for Disease Control. We find that these estimates are consistent with reported cases and there is unlikely to be a large undiagnosed burden of infection over the period we studied.
| S-EPMC7955981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries-India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country.
| S-EPMC7144981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to assess the risks in confronting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the United States using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase. METHODS:Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold fast responsiveness, and the ongoing performance until plateau. The Infected Patient Ratio (IPR) tool was developed to measure the number of patients resulting from 1 infector during the incubation period. Both IPR and TRA were used together to forecast inflection points, plateau phases, intensive care units' and ventilators' breakpoints, and the Total Fatality Ratio. RESULTS:In Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the United States, an inflection point is predicted within the first 15 d of April, to arrive at a plateau after another 30 to 80 d. Variations in IPR drop are expected due to variations in lockdown timing by each country, the extent of adherence to it, and the number of performed tests in each. CONCLUSIONS:Both qualitative (TRA) and quantitative (IPR) tools can be used together for assessing and minimizing the pandemic risks and for more precise forecasting.
| S-EPMC7411444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin's maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.Supplementary informationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07235-7.
| S-EPMC8801045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives Most countries have adopted public activity intervention policies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nevertheless, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of different interventions on the containment of the epidemic was inconsistent. Methods We retrieved time-series intervention policy data for 145 countries from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from December 31, 2019, to July 1, 2020, which included 8 containment and closure policies. We investigated the association of timeliness, stringency, and duration of intervention with cumulative infections per million population on July 1, 2020. We introduced a novel counterfactual estimator to estimate the effects of these interventions on COVID-19 time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Results There is some evidence that earlier implementation, longer durations, and more strictness of intervention policies at the early but not middle stage were associated with reduced infections of COVID-19. The counterfactual model proved to have controlled for unobserved time-varying confounders and established a valid causal relationship between policy intervention and Rt reduction. The average intervention effect revealed that all interventions significantly decrease Rt after their implementation. Rt decreased by 30% (22%-41%) in 25 to 32 days after policy intervention. Among the 8 interventions, school closing, workplace closing, and public events cancellation demonstrated the strongest and most consistent evidence of associations. Conclusions Our study provides more reliable evidence of the quantitative effects of policy interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic and suggested that stricter public activity interventions should be implemented at the early stage of the epidemic for improved containment.
| S-EPMC8651490 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceVaccinations are paramount to halt the COVID-19 pandemic, and safety data are essential to determine the risk-benefit ratio of each COVID-19 vaccine.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between the AZD1222, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273 vaccines and subsequent thromboembolic and thrombocytopenic events.Design, setting, and participantsThis self-controlled case series used individual-level data from national registries in Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Participants included individuals with hospital contacts because of coronary artery disease, coagulation disorders, or cerebrovascular disease between January 1, 2020, and May 16, 2021.ExposuresAZD1222, BNT162b2, or mRNA-1273 vaccine.Main outcomes and measureRelative rate (RR) of hospital contacts for coronary artery disease, coagulation disorders, or cerebrovascular disease in a 28-day period following vaccination compared with the control period prior to vaccination.ResultsWe found 265 339 hospital contacts, of whom 112 984 [43%] were for female patients, 246 092 [93%] were for patients born in 1971 or earlier, 116 931 [44%] were for coronary artery disease, 55 445 [21%] were for coagulation disorders, and 92 963 [35%] were for cerebrovascular disease. In the 28-day period following vaccination, there was an increased rate of coronary artery disease following mRNA-1273 vaccination (RR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.25]), but not following AZD1222 vaccination (RR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.82-1.03]) or BNT162b2 vaccination (RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]). There was an observed increased rate of coagulation disorders following all 3 vaccines (AZD1222: RR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.75-2.31]; BNT162b2: RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.07-1.19]; and mRNA-1273: RR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.07-1.47]). There was also an observed increased rate of cerebrovascular disease following all 3 vaccines (AZD1222: RR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.16-1.52]; BNT162b2: RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.05-1.13]; and mRNA-1273: RR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35]). For individual diseases within the main outcomes, 2 notably high rates were observed: 12.04 (95% CI, 5.37-26.99) for cerebral venous thrombosis and 4.29 (95% CI, 2.96-6.20) for thrombocytopenia, corresponding to 1.6 (95% CI, 0.6-2.6) and 4.9 (95% CI, 2.9-6.9) excess events per 100 000 doses, respectively, following AZD1222 vaccination.Conclusions and relevanceIn this self-controlled case series, there was an increased rate of hospital contacts because of coagulation disorders and cerebrovascular disease, especially for thrombocytopenia and cerebral venous thrombosis, following vaccination with AZD1222. Although increased rates of several thromboembolic and thrombocytopenic outcomes following BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccination were observed, these increases were less than the rates observed after AZD1222, and sensitivity analyses were not consistent. Confirmatory analysis on the 2 mRNA vaccines by other methods are warranted.
| S-EPMC9198750 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study, a hesitant fuzzy AHP method is presented to help decision makers (DMs), especially policymakers, governors, and physicians, evaluate the importance of intervention strategy alternatives applied by various countries for the COVID-19 pandemic. In this research, a hesitant fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) method, hesitant fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (hesitant F-AHP), is implemented to make pairwise comparison of COVID-19 country-level intervention strategies applied by various countries and determine relative importance scores. An illustrative study is presented where fifteen intervention strategies applied by various countries in the world during the COVID-19 pandemic are evaluated by seven physicians (a professor of infectious diseases and clinical microbiology, an infectious disease physician, a clinical microbiology physician, two internal medicine physicians, an anesthesiology and reanimation physician, and a family physician) in Turkey who act as DMs in the process.
| S-EPMC7441437 | biostudies-literature