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SARS-CoV-2 phase I transmission and mutability linked to the interplay of climatic variables: a global observation on the pandemic spread.

ABSTRACT: The study aims to determine the impact of global meteorological parameters on SARS-COV-2, including population density and initiation of lockdown in twelve different countries. The daily trend of these parameters and COVID-19 variables from February 15th to April 25th, 2020, were considered. Asian countries show an increasing trend between infection rate and population density. A direct relationship between the time-lapse of the first infected case and the period of suspension of movement controls the transmissivity of COVID-19 in Asian countries. The increase in temperature has led to an increase in COVID-19 spread, while the decrease in humidity is consistent with the trend in daily deaths during the peak of the pandemic in European countries. Countries with 65°F temperature and 5 mm rainfall have a negative impact on COVID-19 spread. Lower oxygen availability in the atmosphere, fine droplets of submicron size together with infectious aerosols, and low wind speed have contributed to the increase in total cases and mortality in Germany and France. The onset of the D614G mutation and subsequent changes to D614 before March, later G614 in mid-March, and S943P, A831V, D839/Y/N/E in April were observed in Asian and European countries. The results of the correlation and factor analysis show that the COVID-19 cases and the climatic factors are significantly correlated with each other. The optimum meteorological conditions for the prevalence of G614 were identified. It was observed that the complex interaction of global meteorological factors and changes in the mutational form of CoV-2 phase I influenced the daily mortality rate along with other comorbid factors. The results of this study could help the public and policymakers to create awareness of the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Sabarathinam C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8758228 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Globally, since the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been recognized as a severe infectious disease. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the linkage between climatic variables and COVID-19 particularly in National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT of Delhi), India. For this, daily data of COVID-19 has been used for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020, (90 days). Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. To study the relationship among different climatic variables and COVID-19 spread, Karl Pearson’s correlation analysis has been performed. The Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s slope estimator have been used to detect the direction and magnitude of COVID-19 trends, respectively. The results have shown that out of eight selected climatic variables, six variables, viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed are positively associated with coronavirus disease cases (statistically significant at 95 and 99% confidence levels). No association of coronavirus disease has been found with bright sunshine hours and rainfall. Besides, COVID-19 cases and deaths have shown increasing trends, significant at 99% confidence level. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. This is the only study which has presented the analysis of COVID-19 spread in relation to several climatic variables for the most densely populated and rapidly growing city of India. Thus, considering the results obtained, effective policies and actions are necessary especially by identifying the areas where the spread rate is increasing rapidly in this megacity. The prevention and protection measures should be adopted aiming at to reduce the further transmission of disease in the city.

Dataset Information

SARS-CoV-2 phase I transmission and mutability linked to the interplay of climatic variables: a global observation on the pandemic spread.

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