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Survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: a reappraisal of the NIH risk stratification equation.

ABSTRACT: The aim of the present study was to determine contemporary survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to investigate whether or not the National Institutes of Health (NIH) equation remains an accurate predictor of survival. In 576 patients with PAH referred during 1991-2007, observed survival was described using the Kaplan-Meier method. In patients with idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH (n = 247), observed versus NIH equation predicted survival was compared. A new survival prediction equation was developed using exponential regression analysis. The observed 1-, 3- and 5-yr survival in the total cohort were 86, 69 and 61%, respectively. In patients with idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH, the observed 1-, 3- and 5-yr survival (92, 75 and 66%, respectively) were significantly higher than the predicted survival (65, 43 and 32%, respectively). The new equation (P(t) = e(-A(x,y,z)t), where P(t) is probability of survival, t the time interval in years, A(x,y,z) = e((-1.270-0.0148x+0.0402y-0.361z)), x the mean pulmonary artery pressure, y the mean right atrial pressure and z the cardiac index) performed well when applied to published contemporary studies of survival in PAH. Contemporary survival in the PAH cohort was better than that predicted by the NIH registry equation. The NIH equation underestimated survival in idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH. Once prospectively validated, the new equation may be used to determine prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Thenappan T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8782564 | biostudies-literature | 2010 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: a reappraisal of the NIH risk stratification equation.

Thenappan T T Shah S J SJ Rich S S Tian L L Archer S L SL Gomberg-Maitland M M

The European respiratory journal 20091223 5

The aim of the present study was to determine contemporary survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to investigate whether or not the National Institutes of Health (NIH) equation remains an accurate predictor of survival. In 576 patients with PAH referred during 1991-2007, observed survival was described using the Kaplan-Meier method. In patients with idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH (n = 247), observed versus NIH equation predicted survival was compared. A new su ...[more]

PMID: 20032020

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Project description:BackgroundPrognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is closely related to indexes of right ventricular function. A better understanding of their relationship may provide important implications for risk stratification in PAH.Research questionCan clinical network graphs inform risk stratification in PAH?Study design and methodsThe study cohort consisted of 231 patients with PAH followed up for a median of 7.1 years. An undirected, correlation network was used to visualize the relationship between clinical features in PAH. This network was enriched for right heart parameters and included N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), comprehensive echocardiographic parameters, and hemodynamics, as well as 6-min walk distance (6MWD), vital signs, laboratory data, and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Connectivity was assessed by using eigenvector and betweenness centrality to reflect global and regional connectivity, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model event-free survival for the combined end point of death or lung transplantation.ResultsA network of closely intertwined features centered around NT-proBNP with 6MWD emerging as a secondary hub were identified. Less connected nodes included Dlco, systolic BP, albumin, and sodium. Over the follow-up period, death or transplantation occurred in 92 patients (39.8%). A strong prognostic model was achieved with a Harrell's C-index of 0.81 (0.77-0.85) when combining central right heart features (NT-proBNP and right ventricular end-systolic remodeling index) with 6MWD and less connected nodes (Dlco, systolic BP, albumin, sodium, sex, connective tissue disease etiology, and prostanoid therapy). When added to the baseline risk model, serial change in NT-proBNP significantly improved outcome prediction at 5 years (increase in C-statistic of 0.071 ± 0.024; P = .003).InterpretationNT-proBNP emerged as a central hub in the intertwined PAH network. Connectivity analysis provides explainability for feature selection and combination in outcome models.

Project description:Background: Given the morbidity and mortality associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), risk stratification approaches that guide therapeutic management have been previously employed. However, most patients remain in the intermediate-risk category despite initial therapy. Herein, we sought to determine whether echocardiographic parameters could improve the risk stratification of intermediate-risk patients. Methods: Prevalent PAH patients previously enrolled in observational studies at 3 pulmonary hypertension centers were included in this study. A validated PAH risk stratification approach was used to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Right ventricular echocardiographic parameters were used to further stratify intermediate-risk patients into intermediate-low- and intermediate-high-risk groups based on transplant-free survival. Results: From a total of 146 patients included in our study, 38 patients died over a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Patients with intermediate-/high-risk had worse echocardiographic parameters. Tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and the degree of tricuspid regurgitation (TR) were highly associated with survival (p < 0.01, p = 0.04, respectively) and were subsequently used to further stratify intermediate-risk patients. Among intermediate-risk patients, survival was worse for patients with TAPSE < 19 mm compared to those with TAPSE ≥ 19 mm (estimated one-year survival 74% vs. 96%, p < 0.01) and for patients with moderate/severe TR compared to those with no/trace/mild TR (estimated one-year survival 70% vs. 93%, p < 0.01). Furthermore, among intermediate-risk patients, those with both TAPSE < 19 mm and moderate/severe TR had an estimated one-year survival (56%) similar to that of high-risk patients (56%), and those with both TAPSE ≥ 19 mm and no/trace/mild TR had an estimated one-year survival (97%) similar to that of low-risk patients (95%). Conclusions: Echocardiography, a routinely performed, non-invasive imaging modality, plays a pivotal role in discriminating distinct survival phenotypes among prevalent intermediate-risk PAH patients using TAPSE and degree of TR. This can potentially help guide subsequent therapy.

Project description:Rationale: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a life-shortening condition. The European Society of Cardiology and European Respiratory Society and the REVEAL (North American Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management) risk score calculator (REVEAL 2.0) identify thresholds to predict 1-year mortality.Objectives: This study evaluates whether cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) thresholds can be identified and used to aid risk stratification and facilitate decision-making.Methods: Consecutive patients with PAH (n = 438) undergoing cardiac MRI were identified from the ASPIRE (Assessing the Spectrum of Pulmonary Hypertension Identified at a Referral Center) MRI database. Thresholds were identified from a discovery cohort and evaluated in a test cohort.Measurements and Main Results: A percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index threshold of 227% or a left ventricular end-diastolic volume index of 58 ml/m2 identified patients at low (<5%) and high (>10%) risk of 1-year mortality. These metrics respectively identified 63% and 34% of patients as low risk. Right ventricular ejection fraction >54%, 37-54%, and <37% identified 21%, 43%, and 36% of patients at low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively, of 1-year mortality. At follow-up cardiac MRI, patients who improved to or were maintained in a low-risk group had a 1-year mortality <5%. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index independently predicted outcome and, when used in conjunction with the REVEAL 2.0 risk score calculator or a modified French Pulmonary Hypertension Registry approach, improved risk stratification for 1-year mortality.Conclusions: Cardiac MRI can be used to risk stratify patients with PAH using a threshold approach. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index can identify a high percentage of patients at low-risk of 1-year mortality and, when used in conjunction with current risk stratification approaches, can improve risk stratification. This study supports further evaluation of cardiac MRI in risk stratification in PAH.

Project description:Adrenomedullin is a potent vasodilatory peptide, linked to pulmonary arterial hypertension pathology. Proximity extension assays were utilized to study plasma biomarkers related to vasoregulation, with focus on adrenomedullin peptides and precursor levels, collectively referred to as ADM. ADM was measured in 48 treatment-naïve pulmonary arterial hypertension patients at diagnosis, and in 31 of them at an early treatment follow-up. Plasma ADM was additionally assessed in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (n = 20) and pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved (HFpEF(PH)) (n = 33) or reduced (HFrEF(PH)) (n = 36) ejection fraction, as well as healthy controls (n = 16). ADM was studied in relation to pulmonary arterial hypertension hemodynamics, risk assessment, prognosis, treatment response, and differentiation. Plasma ADM levels in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients at diagnosis were higher than in healthy controls (p < 0.001), similar as in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension patients (p = ns), but lower compared to HFpEF(PH) (p < 0.03) and HFrEF(PH) (p < 0.001). In pulmonary arterial hypertension, specifically, plasma ADM at diagnosis correlated mainly to mean right atrial pressure (r = 0.73, p < 0.001), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (r = 0.75, p < 0.001), six-minute walking distance (r = -0.57, p < 0.001), and venous oxygen saturation (r = -0.57, p < 0.001). ADM also correlated to the ECS/ERS- (r = 0.74, p < 0.001) and REVEAL risk scores (r = 0.54, p < 0.001) at pulmonary arterial hypertension diagnosis. Plasma ADM in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients was unaltered at early treatment follow-up compared to baseline (p = ns). Pulmonary arterial hypertension patients with supra-median ADM at diagnosis showed worse overall survival than those with infra-median levels (median survival 34 versus 66 months, p = 0.0077). In conclusion, the present results suggest that baseline plasma ADM levels mirror disease severity, correlating to both ECS/ERS- and the REVEAL risk scores.

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Survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: a reappraisal of the NIH risk stratification equation.

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Survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: a reappraisal of the NIH risk stratification equation.

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