Dataset Information

Variation in the risk of colorectal cancer in families with Lynch syndrome: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Existing clinical practice guidelines for carriers of pathogenic variants of DNA mismatch repair genes (Lynch syndrome) are based on the mean age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) of colorectal cancer for all carriers of pathogenic variants in the same gene. We aimed to estimate the variation in the penetrance of colorectal cancer between carriers of pathogenic variants in the same gene by sex and continent of residence.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we sourced data from the International Mismatch Repair Consortium, which comprises 273 members from 122 research centres or clinics in 32 countries from six continents who are involved in Lynch syndrome research. Families with at least three members and at least one confirmed carrier of a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant in a DNA mismatch repair gene (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, or PMS2) were included. The families of probands with known de-novo pathogenic variants were excluded. Data were collected on the method of ascertainment of the family, sex, carrier status, cancer diagnoses, and ages at the time of pedigree collection and at last contact or death. We used a segregation analysis conditioned on ascertainment to estimate the mean penetrance of colorectal cancer and modelled unmeasured polygenic factors to estimate the variation in penetrance. The existence of unknown familial risk factors modifying colorectal cancer risk for Lynch syndrome carriers was tested by use of a Wald p value for the null hypothesis that the polygenic SD is zero.

Findings

5585 families with Lynch syndrome from 22 countries were eligible for the analysis. Of these, there were insufficient numbers to estimate penetrance for Asia and South America, and for those with EPCAM variants. Therefore, we used data (collected between July 11, 2014, and Dec 31, 2018) from 5255 families (1829 MLH1, 2179 MSH2, 798 MSH6, and 449 PMS2), comprising 79 809 relatives, recruited in 15 countries in North America, Europe, and Australasia. There was strong evidence of the existence of unknown familial risk factors modifying colorectal cancer risk for Lynch syndrome carriers (p<0·0001 for each of the three three continents). These familial risk factors resulted in a wide within-gene variation in the risk of colorectal cancer for men and women from each continent who all carried pathogenic variants in the same gene or the MSH2 c.942+3A>T variant. The variation was especially prominent for MLH1 and MSH2 variant carriers, depending on gene, sex and continent, with 7-56% of carriers having a colorectal cancer penetrance of less than 20%, 9-44% having a penetrance of more than 80%, and only 10-19% having a penetrance of 40-60%.

Interpretation

Our study findings highlight the important role of risk modifiers, which could lead to personalised risk assessments for precision prevention and early detection of colorectal cancer for people with Lynch syndrome.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia.

SUBMITTER: International Mismatch Repair Consortium

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8934577 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Individuals with pathogenic germline variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes are at increased risk of developing colorectal, endometrial and other cancers (Lynch syndrome, LS). While previous studies have extensively described cancer risks in LS, cancer risks in individuals from families without detectable MMR gene defects despite MMR deficiency (Lynch-like syndrome, LLS), and in individuals from families fulfilling the Amsterdam-II criteria without any signs of MMR deficiency (familial colorectal cancer type X, FCCX) are less well studied. The aim of this prospective study was to characterise the risk for different cancer types in LS, LLS, and FCCX, and to compare these with the cancer risks in the general population. METHODS:Data was taken from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer, where individuals were followed up prospectively within the framework of an intensified surveillance programme at recommended annual examination intervals. A total of 1120 LS, 594 LLS, and 116 FCCX individuals were analysed. From this total sample, eight different cohorts were defined, in which age-dependent cumulative risks and standardised incidence ratios were calculated regarding the first incident occurrence of any, colorectal, stomach, small bowel, urothelial, female breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer, separately for LS, LLS, and FCCX. RESULTS:The number of individuals at risk for first incident cancer ranged from 322 to 1102 in LS, 120 to 586 in LLS, and 40 to 116 in FCCX, depending on the cancer type of interest. For most cancer types, higher risks were observed in LS compared to LLS, FCCX, and the general population. Risks for any, colorectal, stomach, urothelial, and endometrial cancer were significantly higher in LLS compared to the general population. No significantly increased risks could be detected in FCCX compared to LLS patients, and the general population. Colorectal and endometrial cancer risks tended to be higher in LLS than in FCCX. CONCLUSIONS:The characterisation of cancer risks in patients with LLS and FCCX is important to develop appropriate surveillance programmes for these specific intermediate risk groups. Larger prospective studies are needed to obtain more precise risk estimates.

Project description:Lynch syndrome is an inherited cause of colorectal cancer caused by mutations of DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. A number of extracolonic tumors have been associated with the disorder, including pancreatic cancer; however, the risk of pancreatic cancer in Lynch syndrome is uncertain and not quantified.To estimate pancreatic cancer risk in families with germline MMR gene mutations.Cancer histories of probands and their relatives were evaluated in MMR gene mutation carriers in the familial cancer registries of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (n = 80), Boston, Massachusetts, and University of Michigan Comprehensive Cancer Center (n = 67), Ann Arbor, Michigan. Families enrolled before the study start date (June 2008) were eligible. Age-specific cumulative risks and hazard ratio estimates of pancreatic cancer risk were calculated and compared with the general population using modified segregation analysis, with correction for ascertainment.Age-specific cumulative risks and hazard ratio estimates of pancreatic cancer risk.Data on 6342 individuals from 147 families with MMR gene mutations were analyzed. Thirty-one families (21.1%) reported at least 1 case of pancreatic cancer. Forty-seven pancreatic cancers were reported (21 men and 26 women), with no sex-related difference in age of diagnosis (51.5 vs 56.5 years for men and women, respectively). The cumulative risk of pancreatic cancer in these families with gene mutations was 1.31% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31%-2.32%) up to age 50 years and 3.68% (95% CI, 1.45%-5.88%) up to age 70 years, which represents an 8.6-fold increase (95% CI, 4.7-15.7) compared with the general population.Among 147 families with germline MMR gene mutations, the risk of pancreatic cancer was increased compared with the US population. Individuals with MMR gene mutations and a family history of pancreatic cancer are appropriate to include in studies to further define the risk of premalignant and malignant pancreatic neoplasms and potential benefits and limitations of surveillance.

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