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The twin-beginnings of COVID-19 in Asia and Europe-one prevails quickly.

ABSTRACT: In the spread of SARS-CoV-2, there have been multiple waves of replacement between strains, each of which having a distinct set of mutations. The first wave is a group of four mutations (C241T, C3037T, C14408T and A23403G [this being the amino acid change D614G]; all designated 0 to 1 below). This DG (D614G) group, fixed at the start of the pandemic, is the foundation of all subsequent waves of strains. Curiously, the DG group is absent in early Asian samples but present (and likely common) in Europe from the beginning. European data show that the high fitness of DG1111 requires the synergistic effect of all four mutations. However, the European strains would have had no time to evolve the four DG mutations (0 to 1), had they come directly from the early Asian DG0000 strain. Very likely, the European DG1111 strain had acquired the highly adaptive DG mutations in pre-pandemic Europe and had been spreading in parallel with the Asian strains. Two recent reports further support this twin-beginning interpretation. There was a period of two-way spread between Asia and Europe but, by May 2020, the European strains had supplanted the Asian strains globally. This large-scale replacement of one set of mutations for another has since been replayed many times as COVID-19 progresses.

SUBMITTER: Ruan Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9046579 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:This ecological study investigates the association between smoking prevalence and COVID-19 occurrence and mortality in 38 European nations as of May 30, 2020. METHODS:Data were collected from Our World in Data. Regression analysis was conducted to adjust for potential confounding factors such as economic activity (gross domestic product), the rate of COVID-19 testing, and the stringency of COVID-19 control policies. RESULTS:There was a statistically significant negative association between smoking prevalence and the prevalence of COVID-19 across the 38 European nations after controlling for confounding factors (p = 0.001). A strong association was found between the prevalence of COVID-19 per million people and economic activity (p = 0.002) and the rate of COVID-19 testing (p = 0.0006). Nations with stricter policy enactment showed fewer COVID-19 cases per million people, but the association was not significant (p = 0.122). Delaying policy enactment was associated with a greater prevalence of COVID-19 (p = 0.0535). Evidence of a direct association between smoking prevalence and COVID-19 mortality was not found (p = 0.626). There was a strong positive association between COVID-19 mortality rate and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases (p < 0.0001) as well as the proportion of the population over 65 years of age (p = 0.0034) and a negative association with the rate of COVID-19 testing (p = 0.0023). CONCLUSIONS:We found a negative association between smoking prevalence and COVID-19 occurrence at the population level in 38 European countries. This association may not imply a true or causal relationship, and smoking is not advocated as a prevention or treatment of COVID-19. IMPLICATIONS:Given the evidence of this ecological study, and of several other studies that found an underrepresentation of smoking prevalence in hospitalized cases, it may be worth examining, in laboratory experiments and controlled human trials, if nicotine offers any protection against COVID-19. Most importantly, to date, no study, including this one, supports the view that smoking acts as a treatment intervention or prophylaxis to reduce the impact or ameliorate the negative health impacts of COVID-19.

Project description:The countries around the world are dealing with air quality issues for decades due to their mode of production and energy usages. The outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic and consequent global economic shutdown, for the first time, provided a base for the real-time experiment of the effect of reduced emissions across the globe in abetting the air pollution issue. The present study dealt with the changes in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), a marker of air pollution, because of global economic shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The study considered the countries in south and south-east Asia (SSEA), Europe and the USA for their extended period of lockdown due to coronavirus pandemic. Daily Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and tropospheric column density of NO2 and SO2 from Ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) sensors, including meteorological data such as wind speed (WS) and relative humidity (RH) were analyzed during the pre-lockdown (2017-2019) and lockdown periods (2020). The average AOD, NO2 and SO2 during the lockdown period were statistically compared with their pre-lockdown average using Wilcoxon-signed-paired-rank test. The accuracy of the MODIS-derived AOD, including the changing pattern of AOD due to lockdown was estimated using AERONET data. The weekly anomaly of AOD, NO2 and SO2 was used for analyzing the space-time variation of aerosol load as restrictions were imposed by the concerned countries at the different points of time. Additionally, a random forest-based regression (RF) model was used to examine the effects of meteorological and emission parameters on the spatial variation of AOD. A significant reduction of AOD (-20%) was obtained for majority of the areas in SSEA, Europe and USA during the lockdown period. Yet, the clusters of increased AOD (30-60%) was obtained in the south-east part of SSEA, the western part of Europe and US regions. NO2 reductions were measured up to 20-40%, while SO2 emission increased up to 30% for a majority of areas in these regions. A notable space-time variation was observed in weekly anomaly. We found the evidence of the formation of new particles for causing high AOD under high RH and low WS, aided by the downward vertical wind flow. The RF model showed a distinguishable relative importance of emission and meteorological factors among these regions to account for the spatial variability of AOD. Our findings suggest that the continued lockdown might provide a temporary solution to air pollution; however, to combat persistent air quality issues, it needs switching over to the cleaner mode of production and energy. The findings of this study, thus, advocated for alternative energy policy at the global scale.

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The twin-beginnings of COVID-19 in Asia and Europe-one prevails quickly.

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