Statistical Deconvolution for Inference of Infection Time Series.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Miller AC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9148632 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Statistical Deconvolution for Inference of Infection Time Series.
Miller Andrew C AC Hannah Lauren A LA Futoma Joseph J Foti Nicholas J NJ Fox Emily B EB D'Amour Alexander A Sandler Mark M Saurous Rif A RA Lewnard Joseph A JA
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20220510 4
Accurate measurement of daily infection incidence is crucial to epidemic response. However, delays in symptom onset, testing, and reporting obscure the dynamics of transmission, necessitating methods to remove the effects of stochastic delays from observed data. Existing estimators can be sensitive to model misspecification and censored observations; many analysts have instead used methods that exhibit strong bias. We develop an estimator with a regularization scheme to cope with stochastic dela ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundComparing metabolic profiles under different biological perturbations has become a powerful approach to investigating the functioning of cells. The profiles can be taken as single snapshots of a system, but more information is gained if they are measured longitudinally over time. The results are short time series consisting of relatively sparse data that cannot be analyzed effectively with standard time series techniques, such as autocorrelation and frequency domain methods. In this work, we study longitudinal time series profiles of glucose consumption in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae under different temperatures and preconditioning regimens, which we obtained with methods of in vivo nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. For the statistical analysis we first fit several nonlinear mixed effect regression models to the longitudinal profiles and then used an ANOVA likelihood ratio method in order to test for significant differences between the profiles.ResultsThe proposed methods are capable of distinguishing metabolic time trends resulting from different treatments and associate significance levels to these differences. Among several nonlinear mixed-effects regression models tested, a three-parameter logistic function represents the data with highest accuracy. ANOVA and likelihood ratio tests suggest that there are significant differences between the glucose consumption rate profiles for cells that had been--or had not been--preconditioned by heat during growth. Furthermore, pair-wise t-tests reveal significant differences in the longitudinal profiles for glucose consumption rates between optimal conditions and heat stress, optimal and recovery conditions, and heat stress and recovery conditions (p-values <0.0001).ConclusionWe have developed a nonlinear mixed effects model that is appropriate for the analysis of sparse metabolic and physiological time profiles. The model permits sound statistical inference procedures, based on ANOVA likelihood ratio tests, for testing the significance of differences between short time course data under different biological perturbations.
| S-EPMC3114728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In many applications we are interested in making inference on latent time series from indirect measurements, which are often low-dimensional projections resulting from mixing or aggregation. Positron emission tomography, super-resolution, and network traffic monitoring are some examples. Inference in such settings requires solving a sequence of ill-posed inverse problems, yt = Axt , where the projection mechanism provides information on A. We consider problems in which A specifies mixing on a graph of times series that are bursty and sparse. We develop a multilevel state-space model for mixing times series and an efficient approach to inference. A simple model is used to calibrate regularization parameters that lead to efficient inference in the multilevel state-space model. We apply this method to the problem of estimating point-to-point traffic flows on a network from aggregate measurements. Our solution outperforms existing methods for this problem, and our two-stage approach suggests an efficient inference strategy for multilevel models of multivariate time series.
| S-EPMC4190096 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGuyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria.MethodsWe used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable.FindingsThe proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84-0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73-0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission.InterpretationOur analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices.FundingRamón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.
| S-EPMC8515511 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Time course single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) enables researchers to probe genome-wide expression dynamics at the the single cell scale. However, when gene expression is affected jointly by time and cellular identity, analyzing such data - including conducting cell type annotation and modeling cell type-dependent dynamics - becomes challenging. To address this problem, we propose SNOW (SiNgle cell flOW map), a deep learning algorithm to deconvolve single cell time series data into time-dependent and time-independent contributions. SNOW has a number of advantages. First, it enables cell type annotation based on the time-independent dimensions. Second, it yields a probabilistic model that can be used to discriminate between biological temporal variation and batch effects contaminating individual timepoints, and provides an approach to mitigate batch effects. Finally, it is capable of projecting cells forward and backward in time, yielding time series at the individual cell level. This enables gene expression dynamics to be studied without the need for clustering or pseudobulking, which can be error prone and result in information loss. We describe our probabilistic framework in detail and demonstrate SNOW using data from three distinct time course scRNA-seq studies. Our results show that SNOW is able to construct biologically meaningful latent spaces, remove batch effects, and generate realistic time-series at the single-cell level. By way of example, we illustrate how the latter may be used to enhance the detection of cell type-specific circadian gene expression rhythms, and may be readily extended to other time-series analyses.
| S-EPMC11384007 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Estimation of the period length of time-course data from cyclical biological processes, such as those driven by the circadian pacemaker, is crucial for inferring the properties of the biological clock found in many living organisms. We propose a methodology for period estimation based on spectrum resampling (SR) techniques. Simulation studies show that SR is superior and more robust to non-sinusoidal and noisy cycles than a currently used routine based on Fourier approximations. In addition, a simple fit to the oscillations using linear least squares is available, together with a non-parametric test for detecting changes in period length which allows for period estimates with different variances, as frequently encountered in practice. The proposed methods are motivated by and applied to various data examples from chronobiology.
| S-EPMC3988453 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Inferring dynamics from time series is an important objective in data analysis. In particular, it is challenging to infer stochastic dynamics given incomplete data. We propose an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that iterates between alternating two steps: E-step restores missing data points, while M-step infers an underlying network model from the restored data. Using synthetic data of a kinetic Ising model, we confirm that the algorithm works for restoring missing data points as well as inferring the underlying model. At the initial iteration of the EM algorithm, the model inference shows better model-data consistency with observed data points than with missing data points. As we keep iterating, however, missing data points show better model-data consistency. We find that demanding equal consistency of observed and missing data points provides an effective stopping criterion for the iteration to prevent going beyond the most accurate model inference. Using the EM algorithm and the stopping criterion together, we infer missing data points from a time-series data of real neuronal activities. Our method reproduces collective properties of neuronal activities such as correlations and firing statistics even when 70% of data points are masked as missing points.
| S-EPMC9531145 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sequencing ancient DNA can offer direct probing of population history. Yet, such data are commonly analyzed with standard tools that assume DNA samples are all contemporary. We present DyStruct, a model and inference algorithm for inferring shared ancestry from temporally sampled genotype data. DyStruct explicitly incorporates temporal dynamics by modeling individuals as mixtures of unobserved populations whose allele frequencies drift over time. We develop an efficient inference algorithm for our model using stochastic variational inference. On simulated data, we show that DyStruct outperforms the current state of the art when individuals are sampled over time. Using a dataset of 296 modern and 80 ancient samples, we demonstrate DyStruct is able to capture a well-supported admixture event of steppe ancestry into modern Europe. We further apply DyStruct to a genome-wide dataset of 2,067 modern and 262 ancient samples used to study the origin of farming in the Near East. We show that DyStruct provides new insight into population history when compared with alternate approaches, within feasible run time.
| S-EPMC6698887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a high-performance programming language designed for facile technical computing. Our software package, CauseMap, is platform-independent and freely available as an official Julia package. Conclusions. CauseMap is an efficient implementation of a state-of-the-art algorithm for detecting causality from time series data. We believe this tool will be a valuable resource for biomedical research and personalized medicine.
| S-EPMC4359046 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The ability to measure the properties of proteins at the single-molecule level offers an unparalleled glimpse into biological systems at the molecular scale. The interpretation of single-molecule time series has often been rooted in statistical mechanics and the theory of Markov processes. While existing analysis methods have been useful, they are not without significant limitations including problems of model selection and parameter nonidentifiability. To address these challenges, we introduce the use of nonparametric Bayesian inference for the analysis of single-molecule time series. These methods provide a flexible way to extract structure from data instead of assuming models beforehand. We demonstrate these methods with applications to several diverse settings in single-molecule biophysics. This approach provides a well-constrained and rigorously grounded method for determining the number of biophysical states underlying single-molecule data.
| S-EPMC4317543 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The study of binding kinetics via the analysis of fluorescence time traces is often confounded by measurement noise and photophysics. Although photoblinking can be mitigated by using labels less likely to photoswitch, photobleaching generally cannot be eliminated. Current methods for measuring binding and unbinding rates are therefore limited by concurrent photobleaching events. Here, we propose a method to infer binding and unbinding rates alongside photobleaching rates using fluorescence intensity traces. Our approach is a two-stage process involving analyzing individual regions of interest (ROIs) with a Hidden Markov Model to infer the fluorescence intensity levels of each trace. We then use the inferred intensity level state trajectory from all ROIs to infer kinetic rates. Our method has several advantages, including the ability to analyze noisy traces, account for the presence of photobleaching events, and provide uncertainties associated with the inferred binding kinetics. We demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our method through simulations and data from DNA origami binding experiments.
| S-EPMC11838460 | biostudies-literature