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Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate.

ABSTRACT: Detailed examination of the impact of modern space launches on the Earth's atmosphere is crucial, given booming investment in the space industry and an anticipated space tourism era. We develop air pollutant emissions inventories for rocket launches and re-entry of reusable components and debris in 2019 and for a speculative space tourism scenario based on the recent billionaire space race. This we include in the global GEOS-Chem model coupled to a radiative transfer model to determine the influence on stratospheric ozone (O₃) and climate. Due to recent surge in re-entering debris and reusable components, nitrogen oxides from re-entry heating and chlorine from solid fuels contribute equally to all stratospheric O₃ depletion by contemporary rockets. Decline in global stratospheric O₃ is small (0.01%), but reaches 0.15% in the upper stratosphere (∼5 hPa, 40 km) in spring at 60-90°N after a decade of sustained 5.6% a^-1 growth in 2019 launches and re-entries. This increases to 0.24% with a decade of emissions from space tourism rockets, undermining O₃ recovery achieved with the Montreal Protocol. Rocket emissions of black carbon (BC) produce substantial global mean radiative forcing of 8 mW m^-2 after just 3 years of routine space tourism launches. This is a much greater contribution to global radiative forcing (6%) than emissions (0.02%) of all other BC sources, as radiative forcing per unit mass emitted is ∼500 times more than surface and aviation sources. The O₃ damage and climate effect we estimate should motivate regulation of an industry poised for rapid growth.

SUBMITTER: Ryan RG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9287058 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from a subset of the limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980s. The primary SWOOSH products are zonal-mean monthly-mean time series of water vapor and ozone mixing ratio on pressure levels (12 levels per decade from 316 to 1 hPa). The SWOOSH pressure level products are provided on several independent zonal-mean grids (2.5, 5, and 10°), and additional products include two coarse 3-D griddings (30° long × 10° lat, 20° × 5°) as well as a zonal-mean isentropic product. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a "reference" satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous (i.e., with minimal artificial jumps in time) and accurate (i.e., unbiased). This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal timescales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at doi:10.7289/V5TD9VBX.

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Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate.

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