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FRAX and the assessment of fracture probability in men and women from the UK.

ABSTRACT: A fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) is developed based on the use of clinical risk factors with or without bone mineral density tests applied to the UK.The aim of this study was to apply an assessment tool for the prediction of fracture in men and women with the use of clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture with and without the use of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). The clinical risk factors, identified from previous meta-analyses, comprised body mass index (BMI, as a continuous variable), a prior history of fracture, a parental history of hip fracture, use of oral glucocorticoids, rheumatoid arthritis and other secondary causes of osteoporosis, current smoking, and alcohol intake 3 or more units daily.Four models were constructed to compute fracture probabilities based on the epidemiology of fracture in the UK. The models comprised the ten-year probability of hip fracture, with and without femoral neck BMD, and the ten-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture, with and without BMD. For each model fracture and death hazards were computed as continuous functions.Each clinical risk factor contributed to fracture probability. In the absence of BMD, hip fracture probability in women with a fixed BMI (25 kg/m(2)) ranged from 0.2% at the age of 50 years for women without CRF's to 22% at the age of 80 years with a parental history of hip fracture (approximately 100-fold range). In men, the probabilities were lower, as was the range (0.1 to 11% in the examples above). For a major osteoporotic fracture the probabilities ranged from 3.5% to 31% in women, and from 2.8% to 15% in men in the example above. The presence of one or more risk factors increased probabilities in an incremental manner. The differences in probabilities between men and women were comparable at any given T-score and age, except in the elderly where probabilities were higher in women than in men due to the higher mortality of the latter.The models provide a framework which enhances the assessment of fracture risk in both men and women by the integration of clinical risk factors alone and/or in combination with BMD.

SUBMITTER: Kanis JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2267485 | biostudies-other | 2008 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients.PurposeThe burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1-2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population.MethodsAdministrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ≥ 67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget's disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals.ResultsAmong 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (> 80%), recent prior fracture (> double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications.ConclusionsDemographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.

Project description:ImportanceAdvanced age is associated with lower use of drug treatment to prevent fractures, but concerns about comorbidities and prognosis increase the complexity of managing osteoporosis in this age group.ObjectiveTo determine the association of disease definition, number of comorbidities, and prognosis with 5-year hip fracture probabilities among women who are 80 years and older.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study (4 US sites) included 1528 community-dwelling women identified as potential candidates for initiation of osteoporosis drug treatment.Main outcomes and measuresWomen were contacted every 4 months to ascertain vital status and hip fracture. Five-year hip fracture probability was calculated accounting for competing mortality risk. Participants were classified into 2 distinct groups based on disease definition criteria proposed by the National Bone Health Alliance: with osteoporosis (n = 761) and without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk (n = 767). Comorbid conditions were assessed by self-report. Prognosis was estimated using a mortality prediction index. All analysis was performed between March 2018 and January 2019.ResultsThe study had 1528 participants, all of whom were women, with a mean (SD) age of 84.1 (3.4) years. During follow-up, 125 (8.0%) women experienced a hip fracture and 287 (18.8%) died before experiencing this event. Five-year mortality probability was 24.9% (95% CI, 21.8-28.1) among women with osteoporosis and 19.4% (95% CI, 16.6-22.3) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk. In both groups, mortality probability similarly increased with more comorbidities and poorer prognosis. In contrast, 5-year hip fracture probability was 13.0% (95% CI, 10.7-15.5) among women with osteoporosis and 4.0% (95% CI, 2.8-5.6) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk. The difference was most pronounced among women with more comorbidities or worse prognosis. For example, among women with 3 or more comorbid conditions, hip fracture probability was 18.1% (95% CI, 12.3-24.9) among women with osteoporosis vs 2.5% (95% CI, 1.3-4.2) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk.Conclusions and relevanceWomen 80 years and older who have osteoporosis, including those with more comorbidities or poorer prognosis, have a high 5-year probability of hip fracture despite accounting for competing mortality risk. In contrast, among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk, competing mortality risk far outweighs hip fracture probability, especially among those with more comorbidities or worse prognosis.

Project description:To examine the degree of trauma in major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) in men versus women, we used data from 15,698 adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study (5994 men) and the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) (9704 women). Participants were contacted tri-annually to ascertain incident fractures, which were confirmed by radiographic reports and coded according to degree of self-reported trauma. Trauma was classified as low (fall from ≤ standing height; fall on stairs, steps, or curb; minimal trauma other than fall [coughing, turning over]); moderate (collisions with objects during normal activity without associated fall); or high (fall from > standing height; severe trauma [motor vehicle accident, assault]). MOF included hip, clinical vertebral, wrist, and humerus fractures. Mean fracture follow-up was 9.1 years in SOF and 8.7 years in MrOS. A total of 14.6% of the MOF in men versus 6.3% of the MOF in women were classified as high trauma (p < 0.001); men versus women more often experienced fractures resulting from severe trauma as well as from fall > standing height. High-trauma fractures were more significantly common in men versus women at the hip (p = 0.002) and wrist (p < 0.001) but not at the spine or humerus. Among participants with MOF, the odds ratio of a fracture related to high-trauma fracture among men versus women was 3.12 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-5.71) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Findings were similar in analyses limited to participants with hip fractures (odds ratio [OR] = 3.34, 95% CI 1.04-10.67) and those with wrist fracture (OR = 5.68, 95% CI 2.03-15.85). Among community-dwelling older adults, MOF are more likely to be related to high trauma in men than in women. These findings are not explained by sex differences in conventional risk factors and may reflect a greater propensity among men to engage in risky behavior. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

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FRAX and the assessment of fracture probability in men and women from the UK.

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