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The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. SIGNIFICANCE: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

SUBMITTER: Nabe-Nielsen J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2812489 | biostudies-other | 2010

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

Nabe-Nielsen Jacob J Sibly Richard M RM Forchhammer Mads C MC Forbes Valery E VE Topping Christopher J CJ

PloS one 20100128 1

<h4>Background</h4>The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four spe ...[more]

PMID: 20126614

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Project description:The foodborne bacterium Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) causes a range of diseases, from mild gastroenteritis to invasive infections that have high fatality rate in vulnerable individuals. Understanding the population genomic structure of invasive Lm is critical to informing public health interventions and infection control policies that will be most effective especially in local and regional communities. We sequenced the whole draft genomes of 936 Lm isolates from human clinical samples obtained in a two-decade active surveillance program across 58 counties in New York State, USA. Samples came mostly from blood and cerebrospinal fluid. We characterized the phylogenetic relationships, population structure, antimicrobial resistance genes, virulence genes, and mobile genetic elements. The population is genetically heterogenous, consisting of lineages I-IV, 89 clonal complexes, 200 sequence types, and six known serogroups. In addition to intrinsic antimicrobial resistance genes (fosX, lin, norB, and sul), other resistance genes tetM, tetS, ermG, msrD, and mefA were sparsely distributed in the population. Within each lineage, we identified clusters of isolates with ≤ 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the core genome alignment. These clusters may represent isolates that share a most recent common ancestor, e.g., they are derived from the same contamination source or demonstrate evidence of transmission or outbreak. We identified 38 epidemiologically linked clusters of isolates, confirming eight previously reported disease outbreaks and the discovery of cryptic outbreaks and undetected chains of transmission, even in the rarely reported Lm lineage III (ST3171). The presence of animal-associated lineages III and IV may suggest a possible spillover of animal-restricted strains to humans. Many transmissible clones persisted over several years and traversed distant sites across the state. Our findings revealed the bacterial determinants of invasive listeriosis, driven mainly by the diversity of locally circulating lineages, intrinsic and mobile antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes, and persistence across geographical and temporal scales. Our findings will inform public health efforts to reduce the burden of invasive listeriosis, including the design of food safety measures, source traceback, and outbreak detection.

Project description:UnlabelledLong-term persistence with anti-osteoporosis drugs and determinants for discontinuation among fracture patients were examined. Persistence was 75.0 and 45.3 % after 1 and 5 years, respectively. Those aged ≥80 years were at increased risk of early discontinuation. Within 1 year after discontinuation, 24.3 % restarted therapy, yet 47.0 % persisted for 1 year.IntroductionThe risk of osteoporotic fracture can effectively be reduced with use of anti-osteoporosis drugs. However, little is known about persistence with these drugs after fracture where subsequent fracture risk is high. The aims were to determine long-term persistence with anti-osteoporosis drugs among fracture patients, including its determinants, and to describe restart and subsequent persistence.MethodsA cohort study was conducted within the Dutch PHARMO Database Network. Patients aged ≥50 years (n = 961) who received anti-osteoporosis drugs within 1 year after fracture, but not in the preceding year, were included (2002-2011). Persistence (defined as the proportion on treatment) and the proportion restarting after discontinuation were estimated using Kaplan-Meier analyses. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to identify determinants of non-persistence including age, sex, initial dosage regime, fracture type, comorbidities, and drug use.ResultsPersistence with anti-osteoporosis drugs was 75.0 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 72.0-77.7) and 45.3 % (95 % CI 40.4-50.0) after 1 and 5 years, respectively. A significant determinant of non-persistence was age ≥80 years (reference 50-59 years: adjusted hazard ratio [adj. HR] 1.65; 95 % CI 1.15-2.38). This effect was not constant over time (≤360 days following initiation: adj. HR 2.07; 95 % CI 1.27-3.37; >360 days: adj. HR 1.08; 95 % CI 0.62-1.88). Within 1 year after discontinuation, 24.3 % (95 % CI 20.1-29.2) restarted therapy, yet 47.0 % persisted for 1 year.ConclusionsThis study identified suboptimal persistence with anti-osteoporosis drugs among fracture patients. Major target groups for measures aimed to improve persistence may be those aged >80 years and those restarting therapy.

Dataset Information

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

Publications

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

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