Association between treatment effects on disease progression end points and overall survival in clinical studies of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Delea TE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3461161 | biostudies-other | 2012 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Renal-cell carcinoma (RCC) affects over 330,000 new patients every year, of whom 1/3 present with metastatic RCC (mRCC) at diagnosis. Most mRCC patients treated with a first-line agent relapse within 1 year and need second-line therapy. The present study aims to compare overall survival (OS) between nivolumab and cabozantinib from two recent pivotal studies comparing, respectively, each one of the two emerging treatments against everolimus in patients who relapse following first-line treatment. Comparison is traditionally carried out using the Bucher method, which assumes proportional hazard. Since OS curves intersected in one of the pivotal studies, models not assuming proportional hazards were also considered to refine the comparison. Four Bayesian parametric survival network meta-analysis models were implemented on overall survival (OS) data digitized from the Kaplan-Meier curves reported in the studies. Three models allowing hazard ratios (HR) to vary over time were assessed against a fixed-HR model. The Bucher method favored cabozantinib, with a fixed HR for OS vs. nivolumab of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: [0.77, 1.54]). However, all models with time-varying HR showed better fits than the fixed-HR model. The log-logistic model fitted the data best, exhibiting a HR for OS initially favoring cabozantinib, the trend inverting to favor nivolumab after month 5 (95% credible interval <1 from 10 months). The initial probability of cabozantinib conferring superior OS was 54%, falling to 41.5% by month 24. Numerical differences in study-adjusted OS estimates between the two treatments remained small. This study evidences that HR for OS of nivolumab vs. cabozantinib varies over time, favoring cabozantinib in the first months of treatment but nivolumab afterwards, a possible indication that patients with poor prognosis benefit more from cabozantinib in terms of survival, nivolumab benefiting patients with better prognosis. More evidence, including real-world observational data, is needed to compare effectiveness between cabozantinib and nivolumab.
| S-EPMC4894561 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: The debate surrounding the acceptance of progression-free survival (PFS) as an intermediate endpoint to overall survival (OS) has grown in recent years, due to the challenges in demonstrating an OS benefit within clinical trials today. PFS is generally a good predictor of OS for cases where survival post-progression (SPP) is short, and less so when SPP is long. SPP depends on multiple factors, including residual effect from experimental treatment and effect from crossover or other subsequent therapies, posing unique challenges into the translation of PFS benefit into OS. METHODS: The objective of this analysis was to conduct simulations investigating how increasing SPP impacts PFS translation to OS, utilizing data from the AXIS (axitinib versus sorafenib in advanced metastatic renal cell carcinoma) trial. The underlying assumption was a treatment benefit in PFS (the PFS distribution parameters were chosen to be equal to median PFS in the AXIS trial) but no treatment effect on SPP, implying that PFS improvement is directly reflected in OS improvement. RESULTS: The probability of a statistically significant difference between arms for OS decreased from 54.7% to 6.1% when median SPP was increased from one to 20 months. The probability of the hazard ratio of OS being ≥0.9 was similarly increased from 24.3% to 72.6%, even though the hazard ratio for PFS was 0.69. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that when simulated SPP is added to trial PFS data, the existing PFS benefit is diluted. Knowing that the AXIS treatment arms are well balanced with respect to post-trial treatments, we conclude that the PFS to OS benefit translation is primarily obscured by random variability largely unrelated to the true outcomes. The implications for drug development are not insignificant, as there would be a need to include more patients in studies or utilize a longer follow-up time to overcome the SPP variability issue.
| S-EPMC4179830 | biostudies-other
Project description:INTRODUCTION:The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. RESULTS:There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. CONCLUSIONS:In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis.
| S-EPMC4839992 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and objectivesInvestigations of the prognosis are vital for better patient management and decision-making in patients with advanced metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capacity of emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies to predict three- and five-year overall survival (OS) for mRCC patients starting their first-line of systemic treatment.Patients and methodsThe retrospective study included 322 Italian patients with mRCC who underwent systemic treatment between 2004 and 2019. Statistical analysis included the univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazard model and the Kaplan-Meier analysis for the prognostic factors' investigation. The patients were split into a training cohort to establish the predictive models and a hold-out cohort to validate the results. The models were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. We assessed the clinical benefit of the models using decision curve analysis (DCA). Then, the proposed AI models were compared with well-known pre-existing prognostic systems.ResultsThe median age of patients in the study was 56.7 years at RCC diagnosis and 78% of participants were male. The median survival time from the start of systemic treatment was 29.2 months; 95% of the patients died during the follow-up that finished by the end of 2019. The proposed predictive model, which was constructed as an ensemble of three individual predictive models, outperformed all well-known prognostic models to which it was compared. It also demonstrated better usability in supporting clinical decisions for 3- and 5-year OS. The model achieved (0.786 and 0.771) AUC and (0.675 and 0.558) specificity at sensitivity 0.90 for 3 and 5 years, respectively. We also applied explainability methods to identify the important clinical features that were found to be partially matched with the prognostic factors identified in the Kaplan-Meier and Cox analyses.ConclusionsOur AI models provide best predictive accuracy and clinical net benefits over well-known prognostic models. As a result, they can potentially be used in clinical practice for providing better management for mRCC patients starting their first-line of systemic treatment. Larger studies would be needed to validate the developed model.
| S-EPMC9978529 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Our objective was to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in randomized trials of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPCs). Individual patient data were obtained from 19 trials of the updated Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) plus one additional trial (total = 5144 patients). Surrogacy was evaluated at the individual level using a rank correlation coefficient ρ and at the trial level using a correlation coefficient R2 between treatment effects on the surrogate end point and OS. A sensitivity analysis was performed with two-year PFS/DMFS and five-year OS. PFS was strongly correlated with OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.94) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.47 to 1.00). For DMFS, too, the individual-level correlation with OS was strong (ρ = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98 to 0.98); at trial level, the correlation was high but the regression adjusted for measurement error could not be computed (unadjusted R2 = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.99). In the sensitivity analysis, two-year PFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.90) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.00); two-year DMFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.95) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.33 to 1.00). PFS and DMFS are valid surrogate end points for OS to assess treatment effect of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced NPC, while PFS can be measured earlier.
| S-EPMC6059121 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Tumor measurements can be used to estimate time to nadir and depth of nadir as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS). Objective:To assess time to nadir and depth of nadir as surrogates for OS in metastatic colorectal cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants:Pooled analysis of 20 randomized clinical trials within the Aide et Recherche en Cancerologie Digestive database, which contains academic and industry-sponsored trials, was conducted. Three sets of comparisons were performed: chemotherapy alone, antiangiogenic agents, and anti-epidermal growth factor receptor agents in first-line treatment for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures:Surrogacy of time to nadir and depth of nadir was assessed at the trial level based on joint modeling of relative tumor-size change vs baseline and OS. Treatment effects on time to nadir and on depth of nadir were defined in terms of between-arm differences in time to nadir and in depth of nadir, and both were assessed in linear regressions for their correlation with treatment effects (hazard ratios) on OS within each set. The strengths of association were quantified using sample-size-weighted coefficients of determination (R2), with values closer to 1.00 indicating stronger association. At the patient level, the correlation was assessed between modeled relative tumor-size change and OS. Results:For 14 chemotherapy comparisons in 4289 patients, the R2 value was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.30-0.96) for the association between treatment effects on time to nadir and OS and 0.08 (95% CI, 0-0.37) for depth of nadir and OS. For 11 antiangiogenic agent comparisons (4854 patients), corresponding values of R2 were 0.25 (95% CI, 0-0.72) and 0.06 (95% CI, 0-0.35). For 8 anti-epidermal growth factor receptor comparisons (2684 patients), corresponding values of R2 were 0.24 (95% CI, 0-0.83) and 0.21 (95% CI, 0-0.78). Conclusions and Relevance:In contrast with early reports favoring depth of response as a surrogate, these results suggest that neither time to nadir nor depth of nadir is an acceptable surrogate for OS in the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer.
| S-EPMC6755539 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical parameters and the overall survival (OS) of Japanese patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). The medical records of 59 consecutive mRCC patients receiving molecular-targeted therapy were retrospectively assessed. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analyses were used to evaluate the progression-free survival (PFS) and OS, and a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the clinical parameters for their prognostic relevance. The median OS for all patients was 23.7 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 17.9-30 months], and the median OS stratified by the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center risk classification was 28.5, 20.9 and 8.1 months for the favorable-, intermediate- and poor-risk groups, respectively (P=0.137; degree of freedom: 2). Univariate analyses identified prior nephrectomy, number of metastatic sites, anemia, best response to first-line treatment and PFS with first-line treatment as prognostic variables. Multivariate analyses identified number of metastatic sites [2: hazard ratio (HR)=3.351, 95% CI: 1.460-8.201, P=0.004; ≥3: HR=6.397, 95% CI: 1.939-20.209, P=0.003], time from diagnosis to therapy (≥1 year: HR=0.334, 95% CI: 0.137-0.755, P=0.008), PFS with first-line treatment (≥5.1 months: HR=0.353, 95% CI: 0.156-0.766, P=0.008) and number of lines of molecular-targeted agents (≥3: HR=0.248, 95% CI: 0.091-0.664, P=0.006) as independent prognostic factors. The results indicated that the PFS of first-line treatment may be a meaningful intermediate endpoint for OS in patients with mRCC who received treatment with molecular-targeted therapy.
| S-EPMC5530302 | biostudies-other
Project description:The relationship between overall survival (OS) and disease progression end points has been demonstrated in colorectal, colon, and non-small cell lung cancers. We assessed the association between OS and time-to-progression (TTP) or progression-free survival (PFS) in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) studies. A literature search retrieved all randomised controlled trials since 1994 in patients with MBC in which OS and either TTP or PFS were reported. Summary data on trial and patient characteristics were abstracted. Study effect sizes were derived as the ratio of median progression (or survival) times, which approximates the hazard ratio. Effects were centred at zero for regression analyses weighted by sample size. Numerous treatments were represented in 67 studies (17 081 patients). Modeling showed a positive association between outcomes for progression and survival (R(2)=0.30) with a slope of 0.32 (P<0.001) and a non-significant intercept. Thus, a treatment effect on TTP/PFS translated into a concordant effect on OS, but with attenuated effect size. Similar results were found in models of subsets and sensitivity analyses. These results demonstrate that treatment effects on progression end points in MBC trials are expected to result in treatment differences on OS that are smaller yet consistently in the same direction.
| S-EPMC2584937 | biostudies-other
Project description:With 15 drugs currently approved for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and even more combination regimens with immunotherapy on the horizon, there remains a distinct lack of molecular biomarkers for therapeutic efficacy. Our study reports on real-world clinical outcomes of mRCC patients from a tertiary academic medical center treated with empirically selected standard-of-care therapy. We utilized the Stanford Renal Cell Carcinoma Database (RCCD) to report on various outcome measures, including overall survival (OS) and the median number of lines of targeted therapies received from the time of metastatic diagnosis. We found that most metastatic patients did not survive long enough to attempt even half of the available targeted therapies. We also noted that patients who failed to receive a clinical benefit within the first two lines of therapy could still go on to experience clinical benefit in later lines of therapy. The term, "clinical benefit" was assigned to a line of therapy if a patient remained on drug treatment for three months or longer. Moreover, patients with clinical benefit in at least one line of therapy experienced significantly longer OS compared to those who did not have clinical benefit in at least one line of therapy. Developing biomarkers that identify patients who will receive clinical benefit in individual lines of therapy is one potential strategy for achieving rational drug sequencing in mRCC.
| S-EPMC6678132 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this study was to compare progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between metachronous and synchronous metastatic renal cell carcinomas treated with VEGF-targeted therapy.Between 2005 and 2014, 93 (78.8%) intermediate- and 25 (21.2%) poor-Heng-risk patients, including 32 (27.1%) patients with metachronous and 86 (72.9%) patients with synchronous renal cell carcinoma, were enrolled retrospectively. PFS and OS values were compared according to the number of risk factors and treatment-free interval using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The prognostic risk factors were also evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model, with a p-value < 0.05 indicating statistical significance.During a median 5.0-month treatment and 59.3-month follow-up, analysis of the PFS/OS of SM (5.2/9.6 months) and MM (9.6/20.1 months) yielded a significant difference in OS (p = 0.010). However, there was no significant difference when Heng risk groups and treatment-free interval were considered (p > 0.05). There was a significant difference in PFS (hazard ratio: 1.81) and OS (hazard ratio: 2.19) with increasing number of Heng risk factors among patients with synchronous renal cell carcinoma and a treatment-free interval <1 year. Metastatic type, anemia, and neutrophilia were significant predictive factors for OS in multivariable analysis (p < 0.05).The metastatic type of renal cell carcinoma (synchronous or metachronous) significantly affects survival; metachronous type is associated with more favorable outcomes than synchronous type. However, after stratification according to Heng risk factors and treatment-free interval, the differences in survival between metachronous and synchronous type were insignificant.
| S-EPMC5706824 | biostudies-other