Dataset Information

Evaluation of Continuous Tumor-Size-Based End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Randomized Clinical Trials in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Importance:Tumor measurements can be used to estimate time to nadir and depth of nadir as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS). Objective:To assess time to nadir and depth of nadir as surrogates for OS in metastatic colorectal cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants:Pooled analysis of 20 randomized clinical trials within the Aide et Recherche en Cancerologie Digestive database, which contains academic and industry-sponsored trials, was conducted. Three sets of comparisons were performed: chemotherapy alone, antiangiogenic agents, and anti-epidermal growth factor receptor agents in first-line treatment for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures:Surrogacy of time to nadir and depth of nadir was assessed at the trial level based on joint modeling of relative tumor-size change vs baseline and OS. Treatment effects on time to nadir and on depth of nadir were defined in terms of between-arm differences in time to nadir and in depth of nadir, and both were assessed in linear regressions for their correlation with treatment effects (hazard ratios) on OS within each set. The strengths of association were quantified using sample-size-weighted coefficients of determination (R2), with values closer to 1.00 indicating stronger association. At the patient level, the correlation was assessed between modeled relative tumor-size change and OS. Results:For 14 chemotherapy comparisons in 4289 patients, the R2 value was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.30-0.96) for the association between treatment effects on time to nadir and OS and 0.08 (95% CI, 0-0.37) for depth of nadir and OS. For 11 antiangiogenic agent comparisons (4854 patients), corresponding values of R2 were 0.25 (95% CI, 0-0.72) and 0.06 (95% CI, 0-0.35). For 8 anti-epidermal growth factor receptor comparisons (2684 patients), corresponding values of R2 were 0.24 (95% CI, 0-0.83) and 0.21 (95% CI, 0-0.78). Conclusions and Relevance:In contrast with early reports favoring depth of response as a surrogate, these results suggest that neither time to nadir nor depth of nadir is an acceptable surrogate for OS in the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer.

SUBMITTER: Burzykowski T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6755539 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluation of Continuous Tumor-Size-Based End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Randomized Clinical Trials in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

Burzykowski Tomasz T Coart Elisabeth E Saad Everardo D ED Shi Qian Q Sommeijer Dirkje W DW Bokemeyer Carsten C Díaz-Rubio Eduardo E Douillard Jean-Yves JY Falcone Alfredo A Fuchs Charles S CS Goldberg Richard M RM Hecht J Randolph JR Hoff Paulo M PM Hurwitz Herbert H Kabbinavar Fairooz F FF Koopman Miriam M Maughan Timothy S TS Punt Cornelis J A CJA Saltz Leonard L Schmoll Hans-Joachim HJ Seymour Matthew T MT Tebbutt Niall C NC Tournigand Christophe C Van Cutsem Eric E de Gramont Aimery A Zalcberg John R JR Buyse Marc M

JAMA network open 20190904 9

<h4>Importance</h4>Tumor measurements can be used to estimate time to nadir and depth of nadir as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS).<h4>Objective</h4>To assess time to nadir and depth of nadir as surrogates for OS in metastatic colorectal cancer.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Pooled analysis of 20 randomized clinical trials within the Aide et Recherche en Cancerologie Digestive database, which contains academic and industry-sponsored trials, was conducted. Three sets of c ...[more]

PMID: 31539075

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Project description:Importance:Surrogate end points in oncology trade the advantage of reducing the time needed to conduct clinical trials for the disadvantage of greater uncertainty regarding the treatment effect on patient-centered end points, such as overall survival (OS) and quality of life. Objective:To quantify the amount of time saved through the acceptance of surrogate end points, including response rate (RR) and progression-free survival (PFS). Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective study of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) oncology approvals and their drug registration trials based on actual publication analyzed the original and updated clinical trials data that led to FDA-approved drug indications in oncology from 2006 to 2017 by using existing publications, conference abstracts, and package inserts from the FDA. Data related to cancer type, line of therapy (first-line, second-line, and third- or later-line treatment of advanced or metastatic disease), FDA approval type, end point basis for approval (RR, PFS, or OS/quality of life), sample size, accrual rate, and drug RR were extracted by March 23, 2018. All data were analyzed by July 13, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:The main outcome was the study duration needed to complete the primary end point analysis used for each drug indication approval. This was estimated from reported enrollment dates, analysis cutoff dates, time to response, median duration of response, median PFS, and median OS. Results:In total, 188 distinct indications among 107 cancer drugs were identified. The RR was more often used for FDA approval in subsequent lines of therapy (17 of 71 drug indications [24%] in first-line therapy vs 34 of 77 drug indications [44%] in second-line therapy vs 19 of 24 drug indications [79%] in third- or later-line therapy, P < .001). Study duration for PFS (median, 31 [range, 10-104] months) was similar to that for OS (median, 33 [range, 12-117] months; P = .31), whereas study duration for RR (median, 25 [range, 11-54] months) was shorter than that for OS (P = .001). In multivariate analysis, compared with using OS, use of PFS as the end point was associated with study durations that were shorter by a mean of 11 months (95% CI, 5-17 months), and the use of RR as the end point was associated with study durations that were shorter by a mean of 19 months (95% CI, 13-25 months). Conclusions and Relevance:From the findings of this study, an estimated 11 months appeared to be needed (ie, approximately 12% longer in the drug development cycle) to assess the OS benefit of a cancer drug. This study's findings suggest that this must be weighed against the downside of increased uncertainty of clinical benefit arising from using surrogate end points.

Project description:ImportancePredictive genetic testing in Huntington disease (HD) enables therapeutic trials in HTT gene expansion mutation carriers prior to a motor diagnosis. Progression-free survival (PFS) is the composite of a motor diagnosis or a progression event, whichever comes first.ObjectiveTo determine if PFS provides feasible sample sizes for trials with mutation carriers who have not yet received a motor diagnosis.Design, setting, and participantsThis study uses data from the 2-phase, longitudinal cohort studies called Track and from a longitudinal cohort study called the Cooperative Huntington Observational Research Trial (COHORT). Track had 167 prediagnosis mutation carriers and 156 noncarriers, whereas COHORT had 366 prediagnosis mutation carriers and noncarriers. Track studies were conducted at 4 sites in 4 countries (Canada, France, England, and the Netherlands) from which data were collected from January 17, 2008, through November 17, 2014. The COHORT was conducted at 38 sites in 3 countries (Australia, Canada, and the United States) from which data were collected from February 14, 2006, through December 31, 2009. Results from the Track data were externally validated with data from the COHORT. The required sample size was estimated for a 2-arm prediagnosis clinical trial. Data analysis took place from May 1, 2016, to June 10, 2017.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point is PFS. Huntington disease progression events are defined for the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale total motor score, total functional capacity, symbol digit modalities test, and Stroop word test.ResultsOf Track's 167 prediagnosis mutation carriers, 93 (55.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 40.06 (8.92) years; of the 156 noncarriers, 87 (55.7%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 45.58 (10.30) years. Of the 366 COHORT participants, 229 (62.5%) were women and the mean (SD) age was 42.21 (12.48) years. The PFS curves of the Track mutation carriers showed good external validity with the COHORT mutation carriers after adjusting for initial progression. For required sample size, PFS with a motor diagnosis or total motor score progression required about 4 times fewer participants than a motor diagnosis alone. Including additional cognitive progression events further reduced the number. For example, a 3-year trial with 10% attrition and a treatment effect of 50% requires a total of 661 with motor diagnosis as the survival end point but only 177 with a total motor score PFS.Conclusions and relevanceReasonably sized prediagnosis Huntington disease trials can be planned with PFS, and there is evidence of generalizability of this approach.

Project description:ImportanceContemporary observational cancer research requires associating genomic biomarkers with reproducible end points; overall survival (OS) is a key end point, but interpretation can be challenging when multiple lines of therapy and prolonged survival are common. Progression-free survival (PFS), time to treatment discontinuation (TTD), and time to next treatment (TTNT) are alternative end points, but their utility as surrogates for OS in real-world clinicogenomic data sets has not been well characterized.ObjectiveTo measure correlations between candidate surrogate end points and OS in a multi-institutional clinicogenomic data set.Design, setting, and participantsA retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) whose tumors were genotyped at 4 academic centers from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017, and who initiated systemic therapy for advanced disease. Patients were followed up through August 31, 2020 (NSCLC), and October 31, 2020 (CRC). Statistical analyses were conducted on January 5, 2021.ExposuresCandidate surrogate end points included TTD; TTNT; PFS based on imaging reports only; PFS based on medical oncologist ascertainment only; PFS based on either imaging or medical oncologist ascertainment, whichever came first; and PFS defined by a requirement that both imaging and medical oncologist ascertainment have indicated progression.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the correlation between candidate surrogate end points and OS.ResultsThere were 1161 patients with NSCLC (648 women [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 63 [11] years) and 1150 with CRC (647 men [56.3%]; mean [SD] age, 54 [12] years) identified for analysis. Progression-free survival based on both imaging and medical oncologist documentation was most correlated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; CRC: ρ = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.69-0.75). Time to treatment discontinuation was least associated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.40-0.50; CRC: ρ = 0.13; 95% CI, 0.06-0.19). Time to next treatment was modestly associated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.60; 0.55-0.64; CRC: ρ = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.32-0.46).Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study suggests that PFS based on both a radiologist and a treating oncologist determining that a progression event has occurred was the surrogate end point most highly correlated with OS for analysis of observational clinicogenomic data.

Project description:BackgroundMetastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a highly heterogeneous disease from a clinical, molecular, and immunological perspective. Current predictive models rely primarily in tissue based genetic analysis, which not always correlate with inflammatory response. Here we evaluated the role of a circulating inflammatory signature as a prognostic marker in mCRC.MethodsTwo hundred eleven newly diagnosed patients with mCRC were enrolled in the study. One hundred twenty-one patients had unresectable metastases, whereas ninety patients had potentially resectable liver metastases at presentation. Analysis of miR-21, IL-6, and IL-8 in the plasma of peripheral blood was performed at baseline. Patients with high circulating levels of ≥2 of the three inflammation markers (miR-21, IL-6, and IL-8) were considered to have the "Inflammation phenotype-positive CISIG".ResultsPositive CISIG was found in 39/90 (43%) and 50/121 (45%) patients in the resectable and unresectable cohort, respectively. In the resectable population the median relapse-free survival was 18.4 compared to 31.4 months (p = 0.001 HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.2-3.67) for positive vs. negative CISIG. In contrast, the individual components were not significant. In the same population the median overall survival was 46.2 compared to 66.0 months (p = 0.0003, HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26-5.27) for positive vs. negative CISIG, but not significant for the individual components. In the unresectable population, the median overall survival was 13.5 compared to 25.0 months (p = 0.0008, HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.46-4.22) for positive vs. negative CISIG. IL-6 was independently prognostic with overall survival of 16.2 compared to 27.0 months (p = 0.004, HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.24-3.11) for high vs. low IL-6, but not the other components. Using a Cox regression model, we demonstrated that CISIG is an independent predictive marker of survival in patients with unresectable disease (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2, 2.8, p < 0.01).ConclusionIn two different cohorts, we demonstrated that CISIG is a strong prognostic factor of relapse-free and overall survival of patients with mCRC. Based on these data, analysis of circulating inflammatory signaling can be complimentary to traditional molecular testing.

Dataset Information

Evaluation of Continuous Tumor-Size-Based End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Randomized Clinical Trials in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

Publications

Evaluation of Continuous Tumor-Size-Based End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Randomized Clinical Trials in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

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