Six-year trajectories of post-traumatic stress and severe psychological distress symptoms and associations with timing of trauma exposure, ongoing adversity and sense of injustice: a latent transition analysis of a community cohort in conflict-affected Timor-Leste.
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ABSTRACT: To identify the 6-year trajectories of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and psychological distress symptoms, and examine for associations with timing of trauma exposure, ongoing adversity and with the sense of injustice in conflict-affected Timor-Leste.A whole-of-household survey was conducted in 2004 and 2010 in Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste.1022 adults were followed up over 6 years (retention rate 84.5%). Interviews were conducted by field workers applying measures of traumatic events (TEs), ongoing adversity, a sense of injustice, PTS symptoms and psychological distress.Latent transition analysis supported a 3-class longitudinal model (psychological distress, comorbid symptoms and low symptoms). We derived 4 composite trajectories comprising recovery (20.8%), a persisting morbidity trajectory (7.2%), an incident trajectory (37.2%) and a low-symptom trajectory (34.7%). Compared with the low-symptom trajectory, the persistent and incident trajectories reported greater stress arising from poverty and family conflict, higher TE exposure for 2 historical periods, and a sense of injustice for 2 historical periods. The persistent trajectory was unique in reporting greater TE exposure in the Indonesian occupation, whereas the incident trajectory reported greater TE exposure during the later internal conflict that occurred between baseline and follow-up. Compared with the low-symptom trajectory, the incident trajectory reported a greater sense of injustice relating to the periods of the Indonesian occupation and independence. The persistent trajectory was characterised by a sense of injustice relating to the internal conflict and contemporary times. The recovery trajectory was characterised by the absence of these risk factors, the only difference from the low-symptom trajectory being that the former reported a sense of injustice for the period surrounding independence.Our findings suggest that the timing of both TE exposure and the focus of a sense of injustice may differentiate those with persisting and new-onset mental health morbidity in settings of recurrent conflict.
Project description:BackgroundThe Syrian conflict has dramatically changed the public health landscape of Syria since its onset in March of 2011. Depleted resources, fractured health systems, and increased security risks have disrupted many routine services, including vaccinations, across several regions in Syria. Improving our understanding of infectious disease transmission in conflict-affected communities is imperative, particularly in the Syrian conflict. We utilize surveillance data from the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) database managed by the Assistance Coordination Unit (ACU) to explore trends in the incidence of measles in conflict-affected northern Syria and analyze two consecutive epidemics in 2017 and 2018.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective time-series analysis of the incidence of clinically suspected cases of measles using EWARN data between January 2015 and June 2019. We compared regional and temporal trends to assess differences between geographic areas and across time.ResultsBetween January 2015 and June 2019, there were 30,241 clinically suspected cases of measles reported, compared to 3193 cases reported across the whole country in the decade leading up to the conflict. There were 960 regional events that met the measles outbreak threshold and significant differences in the medians of measles incidence across all years (p-value < 0.001) and in each pairwise comparison of years as well as across all geographic regions (p-value < 0.001). Although most governorates faced an elevated burden of cases in every year of the study, the measles epidemics of 2017 and 2018 in the governorates of Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ez-Zor, and Idlib accounted for over 71% of the total suspected cases over the entire study period.ConclusionsThe 2017 and 2018 measles epidemics were the largest since Syria eliminated the disease in 1999. The regions most affected by these outbreaks were areas of intense conflict and displacement between 2014 and 2018, including districts in Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ez-Zor, and Idlib. The spread of measles in northern Syria serves as an indicator of low immunization coverage and limited access to care and highlights the Syrian peoples' vulnerability to infectious diseases and vaccine preventable diseases in the setting of the current conflict.
Project description:BackgroundThere are substantial risk factors for somatic distress (SD) among civilian populations affected by armed conflict in low and middle income countries. However, the evidence is very limited. Our aim was to examine patterns of SD among conflict-affected persons in the Republic of Georgia, which has over 200,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the wars over separatists regions in the 1990s and with Russia in 2008.MethodsA cross-sectional household survey was conducted with 3600 randomly selected IDPs and former IDPs (returnees). SD was measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-15). Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, and disability were measured using the Trauma Screening Questionnaire, Patient Health Questionnaire 9, Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7, and WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0, respectively. Descriptive, tetrachoric and multivariate regression analyses were used.ResultsForty-two percent of respondents (29% men; 48% women) were recorded as at risk of SD (PHQ-15 score >5). In tetrachoric analysis, SD scores were highly correlated with depression (r = 0.60; p < 0.001), PTSD (r = 0.54; p < 0.001), and anxiety (r = 0.49; p < 0.001). Factors significantly associated with SD in the multivariate regression analysis were depression, PTSD, anxiety, individual trauma event exposure, cumulative trauma exposure, female gender, older age, bad household economic status, and being a returnee compared to an IDP. SD was also associated with increased levels of functional disability (b = 6.73; p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe high levels of SD among IDPs and returnees in Georgia indicate significant suffering. The findings have implications for both mental and physical health services in Georgia.
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has escalated the use of telemedicine in both high and low resource settings however its use has preceded this, particularly in conflict-affected settings. Several countries in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean (EMR) region are affected by complex, protracted crises. Though telemedicine has been used in such settings, there has been no comprehensive assessment of what interventions are used, their efficacy, barriers, or current research gaps.Main bodyA systematic search of ten academic databases and 3 grey literature sources from January 1st 2000 to December 31st 2020 was completed, identifying telemedicine interventions in select EMR conflict-affected settings and relevant enablers and barriers to their implementation. Included articles reported on telemedicine use in six conflict-affected EMR countries (or territories) graded as WHO Health Emergencies: Afghanistan, Gaza, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. Data were extracted and narratively synthesised due to heterogeneity in study design and outcomes. Of 3419 articles identified, twenty-one peer-reviewed and three grey literature sources met the inclusion criteria. We analysed these by context, intervention, and evaluation.Contexteight related to Afghanistan, eight to Syria and seven to Iraq with one each in Yemen and Gaza. Most were implemented by humanitarian or academic organisations with projects mostly initiated in the United States or Europe and mostly by physicians. The in-country links were mostly health professionals rather than patients seeking specialist inputs for specialities not locally available.Interventionsthese included both SAF (store and forward) and RT (real-time) with a range of specialities represented including radiology, histopathology, dermatology, mental health, and intensive care.Evaluationmost papers were observational or descriptive with few describing quality measures of interventions.ConclusionsTelemedicine interventions are feasible in conflict-affected settings in EMR using low-cost, accessible technologies. However, few implemented interventions reported on evaluation strategies or had these built in. The ad hoc nature of some of the interventions, which relied on volunteers without sustained financial or academic investment, could pose challenges to quality and sustainability. There was little exploration of confidentiality, ethical standards, data storage or local healthcare worker and patient acceptability.
Project description:This is the 1st longitudinal examination of trajectories of resilience and resistance (rather than ill-being) among a national sample under ongoing threat of mass casualty. The authors interviewed a nationally representative sample of Jews and Arabs in Israel (N = 709) at 2 times during a period of terrorist and rocket attacks (2004-2005). The resistance trajectory, exhibiting few or no symptoms of traumatic stress and depression at both time points, was substantially less common (22.1%) than has previously been documented in studies following single mass casualty events. The resilience trajectory, exhibiting initial symptoms and becoming relatively nonsymptomatic, was evidenced by 13.5% of interviewees. The chronic distress trajectory was documented among a majority of participants (54.0%), and a small proportion of persons were initially relatively symptom-free but became distressed (termed delayed distress trajectory; 10.3%). Less psychosocial resource loss and majority status (Jewish) were the most consistent predictors of resistance and resilience trajectories, followed by greater socioeconomic status, greater support from friends, and less report of posttraumatic growth.
Project description:The global health community has set itself the task of eliminating tuberculosis (TB) as a public health problem by 2050. Although progress has been made in global TB control, the current decline in incidence of 2% yr(-1) is far from the rate needed to achieve this. If we are to succeed in this endeavour, new strategies to reduce the reservoir of latently infected persons (from which new cases arise) would be advantageous. However, ascertainment of the extent and risk posed by this group is poor. The current diagnostics tests (tuberculin skin test and interferon-gamma release assays) poorly predict who will develop active disease and the therapeutic options available are not optimal for the scale of the intervention that may be required. In this article, we outline a basis for our current understanding of latent TB and highlight areas where innovation leading to development of novel diagnostic tests, drug regimens and vaccines may assist progress. We argue that the pool of individuals at high risk of progression may be significantly smaller than the 2.33 billion thought to be immune sensitized by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and that identifying and targeting this group will be an important strategy in the road to elimination.
Project description:BackgroundOlder persons are often unable to leave conflict areas; however, little is known about the mental and physical health among this population. Our objective was to determine the prevalence of and whether there was an association between psychological distress and disability among older persons affected by conflict in eastern Ukraine.MethodsWe conducted a cluster-randomized cross-sectional household survey of persons aged ≥60 years in government and non-government controlled areas (GCA and NGCA) of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in January-March 2016. Psychological distress and dependency (degree of disability) were measured using the Kessler K6 Psychological Distress Scale and Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living, respectively. Association between psychological distress and dependency was assessed using logistic regression adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.ResultsFinal sample included 758 and 418 persons in GCA and NGCA, respectively. Prevalence of serious psychological distress was 33.6% (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 28.0-39.7%) in GCA and 42.5% (95%CI, 36.1-49.2%) in NGCA. Overall, 32.2% (95%CI, 27.9-36.7%) of independent persons and 74.0% (95%CI, 65.2-81.2%) of moderately/severely dependent persons reported serious psychological distress (P < .0001). Being dependent, a woman, and having a chronic disease were all significantly associated with psychological distress in a logistic regression model.ConclusionsPrevalence of serious psychological distress was very high compared with rates reported from developed countries and was highly associated with disability. Health services for the disabled, including psychological as well as physical support, could help in reducing the proportion of people needing mental health services not normally identified.
Project description:Cancer has become the leading cause of premature death in many counties in recent decades. Previous studies showed plenty of evidence that control of modifiable risk factors would reduce the cancer burden. Since modifiable risk factors could be eliminated by changing the lifestyles of individuals, a greater uptake of modifiable risk factors is critical to reducing cancer burden and inequality in cancer survival. However, climate change will widen cancer inequities through its complex connections with modifiable risk factors. In this perspective, complex connections between climate change and cancer risks via modifiable risk factors, including abnormal temperature, UV, air pollution, natural disasters, food (diet), water, infections, and inefficient physical activities, have been summarized. The associations between climate change and modifiable risk factors have no doubt expanded the inequities. People who face overlapping modifiable risk factors, but who are unable to change or adapt, are at the highest risk in the climate change-cancer linkage. Though individual actions to avoid exposure to modifiable risk factors have been recommended, limited benefits would be achieved unless the nations strive to ensure the basic needs of the people. No choice makes avoiding exposure to risk factors an empty phrase. Thus, government actions should be taken to reduce the expanded inequities in cancer risks.
Project description:The endosperm of the flowering plant mediates the supply of maternal resources for embryogenesis. An endosperm formed in sexual reproduction between diploid parents is typically triploid, with a 2 : 1 ratio of maternal genetic material (denoted as 2m : 1p). Variation from this ratio affects endosperm size, indicating parent-specific expression of genes involved in endosperm growth and development. The presence of paternally or maternally imprinted genes can be explained by parental conflict over the transfer of nutrients from maternal to offspring tissue. Genomic imprinting can, for example, provide the male parent of an embryo in a mixed-paternity seed pod, with an opportunity for expressing its preference for a disproportionate allocation of resources to its embryo. It has been argued that a diploid 1m : 1p endosperm was ancestral and the 2m : 1p endosperm evolved after parental conflict, to improve maternal control over seed provisioning. We present a population genetic model, which instead places the origin of triploidy early in the parental conflict over resource allocation. We find that there is an advantage to having a triploid endosperm as the parental conflict continues. This advantage can help to explain why the 2m : 1p endosperm prevails among flowering plants.
Project description:Violence and other antisocial behaviors, including fighting and weapon carrying, are highly prevalent among adolescents but usually decrease in young adulthood. Childhood adversities, including exposure to abuse, intimate partner violence, and household substance use and mental health problems, have been linked to violent behaviors in adolescence and adulthood. However, few studies of childhood adversity as determinants of persistent violent behavior among community-based samples have been conducted. Furthermore, the effects of adversity timing and duration on subsequent violent behaviors are unclear. We examined the association between five childhood adversity trajectories (representing stable-low, stable-mild, decreasing, increasing, and stable-high adversity from birth through age 11.5 years) and physical fighting and weapon carrying at ages 13-20 years among a sample of young adults followed continuously since birth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 9,665). The prevalence of violent behaviors declined sharply as participants aged (e.g., whereas 42.8% reported engaging in physical fighting in the past year at ages 13-15 years, this dropped to 10.4% at ages 17-20 years). Childhood adversity trajectories exhibited a strong dose-response relation with physical fighting and weapon carrying, with particularly pronounced relations for violent behaviors persisting across both adolescence and early adulthood (e.g., for physical fighting at both ages 13-15 years and 17-20 years compared to no fighting at either period, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31-2.00 for stable-mild; aOR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.64-3.33 for decreasing; aOR = 3.18, 95% CI = 2.20-4.60 for increasing; and aOR = 3.73, 95% CI = 2.13-6.52 for stable-high adversity, compared to stable-low adversity). This work highlights the substantial implications of exposure to childhood adversity for youth violence prevention.