Uncertainty assessment of PM2.5 contamination mapping using spatiotemporal sequential indicator simulations and multi-temporal monitoring data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yang Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4828716 | biostudies-other | 2016 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Although fine particulate matter with a diameter of <2.5 μm (PM2.5) has a greater negative impact on human health than particulate matter with a diameter of <10 μm (PM10), measurements of PM2.5 have only recently been performed, and the spatial coverage of these measurements is limited. Comprehensively assessing PM2.5 pollution levels and the cumulative health effects is difficult because PM2.5 monitoring data for prior time periods and certain regions are not available. In this paper, we propose a promising approach for robustly predicting PM2.5 concentrations. In our approach, a generalized additive model is first used to quantify the non-linear associations between predictors and PM2.5, the bagging method is used to sample the dataset and train different models to reduce the bias in prediction, and the variogram for the daily residuals of the ensemble predictions is then simulated to improve our predictions. Shandong Province, China, is the study region, and data from 96 monitoring stations were included. To train and validate the models, we used PM2.5 measurement data from 2014 with other predictors, including PM10 data, meteorological parameters, remote sensing data, and land-use data. The validation results revealed that the R² value was improved and reached 0.89 when PM10 was used as a predictor and a kriging interpolation was performed for the residuals. However, when PM10 was not used as a predictor, our method still achieved a CV R² value of up to 0.86. The ensemble of spatial characteristics of relevant factors explained approximately 32% of the variance and improved the PM2.5 predictions. The spatiotemporal modeling approach to estimating PM2.5 concentrations presented in this paper has important implications for assessing PM2.5 exposure and its cumulative health effects.
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Project description:Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5 (particulate matter ? 2.5 ?m) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data.We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1° resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations.We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations.The overall model cross-validation R(2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM2.5 concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(2) = 0.73, regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(2) = 0.79, regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 ?g/m(3) between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 ?g/m(3) between 2008 and 2013.Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite evidence suggesting that air pollution-related health effects differ by emissions source, epidemiologic studies on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) infrequently differentiate between particles from different sources. Those that do rarely account for the uncertainty of source apportionment methods. METHODS:For each day in a 12-year period (1998-2010) in Atlanta, GA, we estimated daily PM2.5 source contributions from a Bayesian ensemble model that combined four source apportionment methods including chemical transport and receptor-based models. We fit Poisson generalized linear models to estimate associations between source-specific PM2.5 concentrations and cardiorespiratory emergency department visits (n = 1,598,117). We propagated uncertainty in the source contribution estimates through analyses using multiple imputation. RESULTS:Respiratory emergency department visits were positively associated with biomass burning and secondary organic carbon. For a 1 µg/m increase in PM2.5 from biomass burning during the past 3 days, the rate of visits for all respiratory outcomes increased by 0.4% (95% CI 0.0%, 0.7%). There was less evidence for associations between PM2.5 sources and cardiovascular outcomes, with the exception of ischemic stroke, which was positively associated with most PM2.5 sources. Accounting for the uncertainty of source apportionment estimates resulted, on average, in an 18% increase in the standard error for rate ratio estimates for all respiratory and cardiovascular emergency department visits, but inflation varied across specific sources and outcomes, ranging from 2% to 39%. CONCLUSIONS:This study provides evidence of associations between PM2.5 sources and some cardiorespiratory outcomes and quantifies the impact of accounting for variability in source apportionment approaches.
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Project description:Predicting long-term spatiotemporal characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is important in China to understand historical levels of PM2.5, to support health effects research of both long-term and short-term exposures to PM2.5, and to evaluate the efficacy of air pollution control policies. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) provides a unique opportunity to characterize the long-term trends of ground-level PM2.5 at high spatial resolution. However, the missing rate of AOD in Northeastern China (NEC) is very high, especially in winter, and challenges the accuracy of long-term predictions of PM2.5 if left unresolved. Using random forest algorithms, this study developed a gap-filling approach combing satellite AOD, meteorological data, land use parameters, population and visibility in the NEC during 2005-2016. The model, including all predictors, combined with a model without AOD was able to fill the gap of PM2.5 predictions caused by missing AOD at 1-km resolution. The R2 (RMSE) of the full-coverage predictions was 0.81 (18.5 μg/m3) at the daily level. Gap-filled PM2.5 predictions on days with missing AOD reduced the relative prediction error from 28% to 2.5% in winter. The leave-one-year-out-cross-validation R2 (RMSE) of the full-coverage predictions was 0.65 (16.3 μg/m3) at the monthly level, indicating relatively high accuracy of predicted historical PM2.5 concentrations. Our results suggested that AOD helped increase the reliability of historical PM2.5 prediction when ground PM2.5 measurements were unavailable, even though predictions from the AOD model only accounted for approximate 37% of the whole dataset. Predicted PM2.5 level in NEC have increased since 2005, reached its peak during 2013-2015, then saw a major decline in 2016. Our high-resolution predictions also showed a south to north gradient and many pollution hot spots in the city clusters surrounding provincial capitals, as well as within large cities. Overall, by combining predictions from the AOD model with higher accuracy and predictions from the non-AOD model to achieve full coverage, our modeling approach could produce long-term, full-coverage historical PM2.5 levels in high-latitude areas in China, despite the widespread and persistent AOD missingness.
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Project description:To identify the sources of PM2.5 - bound carbonaceous species and examine the spatial variability of source contributions in the Denver metropolitan area, positive matrix factorization (PMF) was applied to one year of every sixth day ambient PM2.5 compositional data, including elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and 32 organic molecular markers, from four sites (two residential and two near-traffic). Statistics (median, inner quantiles and 5th - 95th percentiles range) of factor contributions, expressed as reconstructed carbonaceous mass (EC + OC), were estimated from PMF solutions of replicate datasets generated by using a stationary block bootstrap technique. A seven-factor solution was resolved for a set of data pooled across the four sites, as it gave the most interpretable results and had the highest rate of neural network factor matching (76.9%). Identified factors were primarily associated with high plant wax, summertime emission, diesel vehicle emission, fossil fuel combustion, motor vehicle emission, lubricating oil combustion and wood burning. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and coefficients of divergence (COD) were used to assess spatial variability of factor contributions. The summertime emission factor exhibited the highest spatial correlation (r = 0.74 - 0.88) and lowest CODs (0.32 - 0.38) among all resolved factors; while the three traffic dominated factors (diesel vehicle emission, motor vehicle emission and lubricating oil combustion) showed lower correlations (r = 0.47 - 0.55) and higher CODs (0.41 - 0.53) on average. Average total EC and OC mass were apportioned to each factor and showed a similar distribution across the four sites. Modeling uncertainties were defined as the 5th - 95th percentile range of the factor contributions derived from valid bootstrap PMF solutions, and were highly correlated with the median factor contribution in each factor (r = 0.77 - 0.98). Source apportionment was also performed on site specific datasets; the results exhibited similar factor profiles and temporal variation in factor contribution as those obtained for the pooled dataset, indicating that the four sites are primarily influenced by similar types of sources. On the other hand, differences were observed in absolute factor contributions between PMF solutions for the pooled versus site-specific datasets, likely due to the large uncertainties in EC and OC factor profiles derived from the site specific datasets with limited numbers of observations.
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