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Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission.

ABSTRACT: HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections are sexually transmitted and propagate in sexual networks. Using mathematical modeling, we aimed to quantify effects of key network statistics on infection transmission, and extent to which HSV-2 prevalence can be a proxy of HIV prevalence.An individual-based simulation model was constructed to describe sex partnering and infection transmission, and was parameterized with representative natural history, transmission, and sexual behavior data. Correlations were assessed on model outcomes (HIV/HSV-2 prevalences) and multiple linear regressions were conducted to estimate adjusted associations and effect sizes.HIV prevalence was one-third or less of HSV-2 prevalence. HIV and HSV-2 prevalences were associated with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.69). Collinearities among network statistics were detected, most notably between concurrency versus mean and variance of number of partners. Controlling for confounding, unmarried mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency) were the strongest predictors of HIV prevalence. Meanwhile, unmarried/married mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency), and clustering coefficient were the strongest predictors of HSV-2 prevalence. HSV-2 prevalence was a strong predictor of HIV prevalence by proxying effects of network statistics.Network statistics produced similar and differential effects on HIV/HSV-2 transmission, and explained most of the variation in HIV and HSV-2 prevalences. HIV prevalence reflected primarily mean and variance of number of partners, but HSV-2 prevalence was affected by a range of network statistics. HSV-2 prevalence (as a proxy) can forecast a population's HIV epidemic potential, thereby informing interventions.

SUBMITTER: Omori R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5508852 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission.

Omori Ryosuke R Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

AIDS (London, England) 20170701 12

<h4>Objectives</h4>HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections are sexually transmitted and propagate in sexual networks. Using mathematical modeling, we aimed to quantify effects of key network statistics on infection transmission, and extent to which HSV-2 prevalence can be a proxy of HIV prevalence.<h4>Design/methods</h4>An individual-based simulation model was constructed to describe sex partnering and infection transmission, and was parameterized with representative natural histo ...[more]

PMID: 28514276

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Project description:BackgroundMeasuring effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions is challenged by bias when using self-reported knowledge, attitude or behavior change. HIV incidence is an objective marker to measure effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions, however, because new infection rates are relatively low, prevention studies require large sample sizes. Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is similarly transmitted and more prevalent and could thus serve as a proxy marker for sexual risk behavior and therefore HIV infection.MethodsHSV-2 antibodies were assessed in a sub-study of 70,000 students participating in an education intervention in Western Province, Kenya. Feasibility of testing for HSV-2 antibodies was assessed comparing two methods using Fisher's exact test. Three hundred and ninety four students (aged 18 to 22 years) were randomly chosen from the cohort and tested for HIV, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis. Out of these, 139 students were tested for HSV-2 with ELISA and surveyed for sexual risk behavior and 89 students were additionally tested for HSV-2 with a point-of-contact (POC) test.ResultsPrevalence rates were 0.5%, 1.8%, 0.3% and 2.3% for HIV, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis, respectively. Prevalence of HSV-2 antibodies was 3.4 % as measured by POC test (n=89) and 14.4 % by ELISA (n=139). Specificity of the POC test compared with ELISA was 100%, and the sensitivity only 23.1%. Associations between self-reported sexual behavior and HSV-2 serostatus could not be shown.ConclusionsAssociations between self-reported sexual risk behavior and HSV-2 serostatus could not be shown, probably due to social bias in interviews since its transmission is clearly linked. HSV-2 antibody testing is feasible in resource-poor settings and shows higher prevalence rates than other sexually transmitted diseases thus representing a potential biomarker for evaluation of HIV prevention interventions.

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Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission.

Publications

Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission.

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