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'Alzheimer's Progression Score': Development of a Biomarker Summary Outcome for AD Prevention Trials.

ABSTRACT: Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention research requires methods for measurement of disease progression not yet revealed by symptoms. Preferably, such measurement should encompass multiple disease markers.Evaluate an item response theory (IRT) model-based latent variable Alzheimer Progression Score (APS) that uses multi-modal disease markers to estimate pre-clinical disease progression.Estimate APS scores in the BIOCARD observational study, and in the parallel PREVENT-AD Cohort and its sister INTREPAD placebo-controlled prevention trial. Use BIOCARD data to evaluate whether baseline and early APS trajectory predict later progression to MCI/dementia. Similarly, use longitudinal PREVENT-AD data to assess test measurement invariance over time. Further, assess portability of the PREVENT-AD IRT model to baseline INTREPAD data, and explore model changes when CSF markers are added or withdrawn.BIOCARD was established in 1995 and participants were followed up to 20 years in Baltimore, USA. The PREVENT-AD and INTREPAD trial cohorts were established between 2011-2015 in Montreal, Canada, using nearly identical entry criteria to enroll high-risk cognitively normal persons aged 60+ then followed for several years.349 cognitively normal, primarily middle-aged participants in BIOCARD, 125 high-risk participants aged 60+ in PREVENT-AD, and 217 similar subjects in INTREPAD. 106 INTREPAD participants donated up to four serial CSF samples.Global cognitive assessment and multiple structural, functional, and diffusion MRI metrics, sensori-neural tests, and CSF concentrations of tau, A?42 and their ratio.Both baseline values and early slope of APS scores in BIOCARD predicted later progression to MCI or AD. Presence of CSF variables strongly improved such prediction. A similarly derived APS in PREVENT-AD showed measurement invariance over time and portability to the parallel INTREPAD sample.An IRT-based APS can summarize multimodal information to provide a longitudinal measure of pre-clinical AD progression, and holds promise as an outcome for AD prevention trials.

SUBMITTER: Leoutsakos JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5639716 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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'Alzheimer's Progression Score': Development of a Biomarker Summary Outcome for AD Prevention Trials.

Leoutsakos J-M JM Gross A L AL Jones R N RN Albert M S MS Breitner J C S JCS

The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease 20160101 4

<h4>Background</h4>Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention research requires methods for measurement of disease progression not yet revealed by symptoms. Preferably, such measurement should encompass multiple disease markers.<h4>Objectives</h4>Evaluate an item response theory (IRT) model-based latent variable Alzheimer Progression Score (APS) that uses multi-modal disease markers to estimate pre-clinical disease progression.<h4>Design</h4>Estimate APS scores in the BIOCARD observational study, and i ...[more]

PMID: 29034223

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Project description:IntroductionAlzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that currently affects 6.2 million people in the United States and is projected to impact 12.7 million worldwide in 2050 with no effective disease-modifying therapeutic or cure. In 2011 as part of the National Alzheimer's Project Act, the National Plan to Address Alzheimer's Disease was signed into law which proposed to effectively prevent AD by 2025, which is rapidly approaching. The preclinical phase of AD can begin 20 years prior to diagnosis, which provides an extended window for preventive measures that would exert a transformative impact on incidence and prevalence of AD.MethodsA novel combination of text-mining and natural language processing strategies to identify (1) AD risk factors, (2) therapeutics that can target risk factor pathways, and (3) studies supporting therapeutics in the PubMed database was conducted. To classify the literature relevant to AD preventive strategies, a relevance score (RS) based on STRING (search tool for the retrieval of interacting genes/proteins) score for protein-protein interactions and a confidence score (CS) on Bayesian inference were developed. To address mechanism of action, network analysis of protein targets for effective drugs was conducted. Collectively, the analytic approach, referred to as a targeted-risk-AD-prevention (TRAP) strategy, led to a ranked list of candidate therapeutics to reduce AD risk.ResultsBased on TRAP mining of 9625 publications, 364 AD risk factors were identified. Based on risk factor indications, 629 Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs were identified. Computation of ranking scores enabled identification of 46 relevant high confidence (RS & CS > 0.7) drugs associated with reduced AD risk. Within these candidate therapeutics, 16 had more than one clinical study supporting AD risk reduction. Top-ranked therapeutics with high confidence emerged within lipid-lowering, anti-inflammatory, hormone, and metabolic-related drug classes.DiscussionOutcomes of our novel bioinformatic strategy support therapeutic targeting of biological mechanisms and pathways underlying relevant AD risk factors with high confidence. Early interventions that target pathways associated with increased risk of AD have the potential to support the goal of effectively preventing AD by 2025.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015. METHODS:We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data. RESULTS:(1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal ?-amyloid deposition (A?+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than A? deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with A? to increase white-matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion-like spreading of A? pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical A? deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by "classic" AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non-Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and surrogate outcome measures using longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging may further reduce clinical trial cost and duration; (11) Advances in machine learning techniques such as neural networks have improved diagnostic and prognostic accuracy especially in challenges involving MCI subjects; and (12) Network connectivity measures and genetic variants show promise in multimodal classification and some classifiers using single modalities are rivaling multimodal classifiers. DISCUSSION:Taken together, these studies fundamentally deepen our understanding of AD progression and its underlying genetic basis, which in turn informs and improves clinical trial design.

Project description:Introduction:Practice effects (PEs) present a potential confound in clinical trials with cognitive outcomes. A single-blind placebo run-in design, with repeated cognitive outcome assessments before randomization to treatment, can minimize effects of practice on trial outcome. Methods:We investigated the potential implications of PEs in Alzheimer's disease prevention trials using placebo arm data from the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study donepezil/vitamin E trial in mild cognitive impairment. Frequent ADAS-Cog measurements early in the trial allowed us to compare two competing trial designs: a 19-month trial with randomization after initial assessment, versus a 15-month trial with a 4-month single-blind placebo run-in and randomization after the second administration of the ADAS-Cog. Standard power calculations assuming a mixed-model repeated-measure analysis plan were used to calculate sample size requirements for a hypothetical future trial designed to detect a 50% slowing of cognitive decline. Results:On average, ADAS-Cog 13 scores improved at first follow-up, consistent with a PE and progressively worsened thereafter. The observed change for a 19-month trial (1.18 points) was substantively smaller than that for a 15-month trial with 4-month run-in (1.79 points). To detect a 50% slowing in progression under the standard design (i.e., a 0.59 point slowing), a future trial would require 3.4 times more subjects than would be required to detect the comparable percent slowing (i.e., 0.90 points) with the run-in design. Discussion:Assuming the improvement at first follow-up observed in this trial represents PEs, the rate of change from the second assessment forward is a more accurate representation of symptom progression in this population and is the appropriate reference point for describing treatment effects characterized as percent slowing of symptom progression; failure to accommodate this leads to an oversized clinical trial. We conclude that PEs are an important potential consideration when planning future trials.

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'Alzheimer's Progression Score': Development of a Biomarker Summary Outcome for AD Prevention Trials.

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'Alzheimer's Progression Score': Development of a Biomarker Summary Outcome for AD Prevention Trials.

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