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Generating a robust prediction model for stage I lung adenocarcinoma recurrence after surgical resection.

ABSTRACT: Lung cancer mortality remains high even after successful resection. Adjuvant treatment benefits stage II and III patients, but not stage I patients, and most studies fail to predict recurrence in stage I patients. Our study included 211 lung adenocarcinoma patients (stages I-IIIA; 81% stage I) who received curative resections at Taipei Veterans General Hospital between January 2001 and December 2012. We generated a prediction model using 153 samples, with validation using an additional 58 clinical outcome-blinded samples. Gene expression profiles were generated using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples and microarrays. Data analysis was performed using a supervised clustering method. The prediction model generated from mixed stage samples successfully separated patients at high vs. low risk for recurrence. The validation tests hazard ratio (HR = 4.38) was similar to that of the training tests (HR = 4.53), indicating a robust training process. Our prediction model successfully distinguished high- from low-risk stage IA and IB patients, with a difference in 5-year disease-free survival between high- and low-risk patients of 42% for stage IA and 45% for stage IB (p < 0.05). We present a novel and effective model for identifying lung adenocarcinoma patients at high risk for recurrence who may benefit from adjuvant therapy. Our prediction performance of the difference in disease free survival between high risk and low risk groups demonstrates more than two fold improvement over earlier published results.

SUBMITTER: Wu YC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5668084 | biostudies-other | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Generating a robust prediction model for stage I lung adenocarcinoma recurrence after surgical resection.

Wu Yu-Chung YC Wei Nien-Chih NC Hung Jung-Jyh JJ Yeh Yi-Chen YC Su Li-Jen LJ Hsu Wen-Hu WH Chou Teh-Ying TY

Oncotarget 20170711 45

Lung cancer mortality remains high even after successful resection. Adjuvant treatment benefits stage II and III patients, but not stage I patients, and most studies fail to predict recurrence in stage I patients. Our study included 211 lung adenocarcinoma patients (stages I-IIIA; 81% stage I) who received curative resections at Taipei Veterans General Hospital between January 2001 and December 2012. We generated a prediction model using 153 samples, with validation using an additional 58 clinic ...[more]

PMID: 29108351

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Project description:ImportanceRecommendations for adjuvant therapy after surgical resection of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) are based solely on TNM classification but are agnostic to genomic and high-risk clinicopathologic factors. Creation of a prediction model that integrates tumor genomic and clinicopathologic factors may better identify patients at risk for recurrence.ObjectiveTo identify tumor genomic factors independently associated with recurrence, even in the presence of aggressive, high-risk clinicopathologic variables, in patients with completely resected stages I to III LUAD, and to develop a computational machine-learning prediction model (PRecur) to determine whether the integration of genomic and clinicopathologic features could better predict risk of recurrence, compared with the TNM system.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study included 426 patients treated from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017, at a single large cancer center and selected in consecutive samples. Eligibility criteria included complete surgical resection of stages I to III LUAD, broad-panel next-generation sequencing data with matched clinicopathologic data, and no neoadjuvant therapy. External validation of the PRecur prediction model was performed using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Data were analyzed from 2014 to 2018.Main outcomes and measuresThe study end point consisted of relapse-free survival (RFS), estimated using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Associations among clinicopathologic factors, genomic alterations, and RFS were established using Cox proportional hazards regression. The PRecur prediction model integrated genomic and clinicopathologic factors using gradient-boosting survival regression for risk group generation and prediction of RFS. A concordance probability estimate (CPE) was used to assess the predictive ability of the PRecur model.ResultsOf the 426 patients included in the analysis (286 women [67%]; median age at surgery, 69 [interquartile range, 62-75] years), 318 (75%) had stage I cancer. Association analysis showed that alterations in SMARCA4 (clinicopathologic-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.44; 95% CI, 1.03-5.77; P = .042) and TP53 (clinicopathologic-adjusted HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.09-2.73; P = .02) and the fraction of genome altered (clinicopathologic-adjusted HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.10-1.04; P = .005) were independently associated with RFS. The PRecur prediction model outperformed the TNM-based model (CPE, 0.73 vs 0.61; difference, 0.12 [95% CI, 0.05-0.19]; P < .001) for prediction of RFS. To validate the prediction model, PRecur was applied to the TCGA LUAD data set (n = 360), and a clear separation of risk groups was noted (log-rank statistic, 7.5; P = .02), confirming external validation.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that integration of tumor genomics and clinicopathologic features improves risk stratification and prediction of recurrence after surgical resection of early-stage LUAD. Improved identification of patients at risk for recurrence could enrich and enhance accrual to adjuvant therapy clinical trials.

Project description:ObjectiveThe proportion of patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) has dramatically increased with the prevalence of low-dose computed tomography use for screening. Up to 30% of patients with stage I LUAD experience recurrence within 5 years after curative surgery. A robust risk stratification tool is urgently needed to identify patients who might benefit from adjuvant treatment.MethodsIn this first investigation of the relationship between metabolic reprogramming and recurrence in stage I LUAD, we developed a recurrence-associated metabolic signature (RAMS). This RAMS was based on metabolism-associated genes to predict cancer relapse and overall prognoses of patients with stage I LUAD. The clinical significance and immune landscapes of the signature were comprehensively analyzed.ResultsBased on a gene expression profile from the GSE31210 database, functional enrichment analysis revealed a significant difference in metabolic reprogramming that distinguished patients with stage I LUAD with relapse from those without relapse. We then identified a metabolic signature (i.e., RAMS) represented by 2 genes (ACADM and RPS8) significantly related to recurrence-free survival and overall survival times of patients with stage I LUAD using transcriptome data analysis of a training set. The training set was well validated in a test set. The discriminatory power of the 2 gene metabolic signature was further validated using protein values in an additional independent cohort. The results indicated a clear association between a high risk score and a very poor patient prognosis. Stratification analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the RAMS was an independent prognostic factor. We also found that the risk score was positively correlated with inflammatory response, the antigen-presenting process, and the expression levels of many immunosuppressive checkpoint molecules (e.g., PD-L1, PD-L2, B7-H3, galectin-9, and FGL-1). These results suggested that high risk patients had immune response suppression. Further analysis revealed that anti-PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy did not have significant benefits for high risk patients. However, the patients could respond better to chemotherapy.ConclusionsThis study is the first to highlight the relationship between metabolic reprogramming and recurrence in stage I LUAD, and is the first to also develop a clinically feasible signature. This signature may be a powerful prognostic tool and help further optimize the cancer therapy paradigm.

Project description:BackgroundAfter curative surgical resection, about 30-75% lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients suffer from recurrence with dismal survival outcomes. Identification of patients with high risk of recurrence to impose intense therapy is urgently needed.Materials and methodsGene expression data of LUAD were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were calculated by comparing the recurrent and primary tissues. Prognostic genes associated with the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of LUAD patients were identified using univariate analysis. LASSO Cox regression and multivariate Cox analysis were applied to extract key genes and establish the prediction model.ResultsWe detected 37 DEGs between primary and recurrent LUAD tumors. Using univariate analysis, 31 DEGs were found to be significantly associated with RFS. We established the RFS prediction model including thirteen genes using the LASSO Cox regression. In the training cohort, we classified patients into high- and low-risk groups and found that patients in the high-risk group suffered from worse RFS compared to those in the low-risk group (P < 0.01). Concordant results were confirmed in the internal and external validation cohort. The efficiency of the prediction model was also confirmed under different clinical subgroups. The high-risk group was significantly identified as the risk factor of recurrence in LUAD by the multivariate Cox analysis (HR = 13.37, P = 0.01). Compared to clinicopathological features, our prediction model possessed higher accuracy to identify patients with high risk of recurrence (AUC = 96.3%). Finally, we found that the G2M checkpoint pathway was enriched both in recurrent tumors and primary tumors of high-risk patients.ConclusionsOur recurrence-specific gene-based prognostic prediction model provides extra information about the risk of recurrence in LUAD, which is conducive for clinicians to conduct individualized therapy in clinic.

Project description:Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a disease with a very unfavorable prognosis. Surgical resection represents the only potentially curative treatment option, but recurrence after complete resection is almost certain. In an exploratory attempt we here aimed at identifying preoperative plasma protein biomarkers with the potential to predict early recurrence after resection of PDAC. Peripheral blood samples from 14 PDAC patients divided into three groups according to their time to tumor recurrence after curatively intended resection (early: < 6 months, medium: 6-12 months, late: > 12 months) underwent targeted proteome analysis. Proteins most strongly discriminating early and late recurrence were then examined in a number of established PDAC cell lines and their culture supernatants. Finally, PDAC organoid lines from primary tumors of patients with early and late recurrence were analyzed for confirmation and validation of results. In total, 23 proteins showed differential abundance in perioperative plasma from PDAC patients with early recurrence when compared to patients with late recurrence. Following confirmation of expression on a transcriptional and translational level in PDAC cell lines we further focused on three upregulated (MAEA, NT5E, AZU1) and two downregulated proteins (ATP6AP2, MICA). Increased expression of NT5E was confirmed in a subset of PDAC organoid cultures from tumors with early recurrence. MICA expression was heterogeneous and ATP6AP2 levels were very similar in both organoids from early and late recurrent tumors. Most strikingly, we observed high MAEA expression in all tested PDAC (n = 7) compared to a non-cancer ductal organoid line. MAEA also demonstrated potential to discriminate early recurrence from late recurrence PDAC organoids. Our study suggests that identification of plasma protein biomarkers released by tumor cells may be feasible and of value to predict the clinical course of patients. Prediction of recurrence dynamics would help to stratify up-front resectable PDAC patients for neoadjuvant chemotherapy approaches in an individualized fashion. Here, MAEA and NT5E were the most promising candidates for further evaluation.

Dataset Information

Generating a robust prediction model for stage I lung adenocarcinoma recurrence after surgical resection.

Publications

Generating a robust prediction model for stage I lung adenocarcinoma recurrence after surgical resection.

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