Dataset Information

Planning for Outcomes (P4O) Modeling Tool: Estimating the Impact of Changing the Proportion of Injectable Progestins in the Contraceptive Method Mix.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Observational studies raise concern about a potential link between injectable progestin contraceptive use and HIV acquisition risk. This possible link is particularly relevant in sub-Saharan Africa where HIV risk is high and the method mix is skewed toward injectables. We developed the Planning for Outcomes (P4O) model (https://planning4outcomes.ctiexchange.org/) to predict changes in maternal and child health (MCH) and HIV outcomes that could occur if the proportion of injectables in the method mix is changed. METHODS:P4O incorporates evidence-based assumptions to predict yearly changes in unintended pregnancies, morbidity/mortality, HIV infections (women and infants), and anticipated health care costs associated with changing the proportions of injectable users in 22 selected countries. Users of this model designate all countries or a subset and adjust inputs including percentage of injectable users who discontinue, percentage of discontinuers who begin use of an alternative method, hazard ratio for HIV infection with injectable use, method mix used by injectable discontinuers, annual probabilities of method-specific pregnancy and mother-to-child transmission of HIV, condom effectiveness against HIV, risk of HIV during pregnancy, and HIV incidence among women of reproductive age. RESULTS:Illustrative results from all sub-Saharan African countries combined and from selected countries demonstrate the potential of P4O to inform program planning and procurement decisions. In countries with high use of long-acting reversible contraception, the removal of injectables from the method mix is associated with improvement in MCH and HIV indicators if most injectable users switch to more effective methods (e.g., implants). In countries with high use of short-acting methods (e.g., condoms), the model predicts mostly negative MCH outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Policy makers and program planners may use P4O to inform programming and policy decisions. In all scenarios, programmatic preparation to accommodate changes to the contraceptive method mix, considerations of how the individual desires of women will be addressed, and potential burden of anticipated MCH-related costs warrant advanced consideration.

SUBMITTER: Lebetkin E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6641814 | biostudies-other | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Planning for Outcomes (P<sub>4</sub>O) Modeling Tool: Estimating the Impact of Changing the Proportion of Injectable Progestins in the Contraceptive Method Mix.

Lebetkin Elena E Gao Xiaoming X Taylor Douglas D Maldonado Lauren Y LY Saad Abdulmumin A Steiner Markus J MJ Dorflinger Laneta J LJ Nanda Kavita K Mastro Timothy D TD

Global health, science and practice 20190627 2

<h4>Background</h4>Observational studies raise concern about a potential link between injectable progestin contraceptive use and HIV acquisition risk. This possible link is particularly relevant in sub-Saharan Africa where HIV risk is high and the method mix is skewed toward injectables. We developed the Planning for Outcomes (P<sub>4</sub>O) model (https://planning4outcomes.ctiexchange.org/) to predict changes in maternal and child health (MCH) and HIV outcomes that could occur if the proportio ...[more]

PMID: 31189699

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Project description:ContextImproving contraceptive method choice is a goal of international family planning. Method mix-the percentage distribution of total contraceptive use across various methods-reflects both supply (availability of affordable methods) and demand (client preferences). We analyze changes in method mix, regional contrasts, and the relationship of the mix to contraceptive prevalence.MethodsWe use 789 national surveys from the 1960s through 2019, from 113 developing countries with at least 1 million people and with data on use of 8 contraceptive methods. Two measures assess the "evenness" of the mix: method skew (more than 50% use is by 1 method), and the average deviation (AD) of the 8 methods' shares from their mean value. Population weighted and unweighted results are compared because they can differ substantially.ResultsUse of traditional methods has declined but still represents 11% of all use (population weighted) or 17% (unweighted country average). Vasectomy's share was historically low with the exception of a few countries but is now even lower. The previous trend toward greater overall evenness in the mix has slowed recently. Sub-Saharan Africa shows a hormonal method progression from oral contraceptives to injectables to implants in a substantial number of countries. In some countries with high HIV prevalence, the condom share has increased. The leading method's share differs by region: female sterilization in Asia (39%) and in Latin America (31%), the pill in the Middle East/North Africa (32%), and the injectable in sub-Saharan Africa (36%). Method skew persists in 30% of countries. "Evenness" of mix is not related to contraceptive prevalence.ConclusionThe marked diversity in predominant methods underscores the conclusion that no single method mix is ideal or appropriate everywhere. But that diversity across countries, coupled with the persisting high degree of extreme skewness in many of them, argues for continued concerted efforts for programs to increase method choice.

Project description:BackgroundYouth ages 15 to 24, who comprise a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa, face a higher burden of unmet contraceptive need than adults. Despite increased international and national commitments to improving young people's access to contraception, significant barriers impede their access to a full range of methods. To further explore these barriers among youth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, we conducted a qualitative study to capture the challenges that affect contraceptive method decisionmaking and complicate youth access to the full method mix.MethodsTo understand factors that impact young people's contraceptive decisionmaking process across all three countries, we conducted a total of 35 focus group discussions with 171 youth ages 15 to 24 and 130 in-depth interviews with key stakeholders working in youth family planning. Questionnaires aligned with the High Impact Practices in Family Planning's elements of adolescent-friendly contraceptive services. Data were coded with MAXQDA and analyzed using a framework for contraceptive decisionmaking to identify relevant patterns and themes.ResultsIn all three countries, youth reported that condoms are the most commonly sought contraceptive method because they are easiest to access and because youth have limited knowledge of other methods. Youth from diverse settings shared uncertainty and concern about the safety and side effects of many methods other than condoms, complicating their ability to take full advantage of other available methods. While most youth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda reported at least moderate confidence in obtaining the information needed to help choose a method, and only a few youth reported that they are completely unable to access contraceptives, other barriers still present a major deterrent for youth, including cost, inconvenient facility hours and long wait times, and stigma from family, community members, and providers.ConclusionsYoung people's ability to fully exercise their method choice remains limited despite availability of services, leading them to take the path of least resistance. Program implementers and policymakers should consider the diverse and often interconnected barriers that youth face in attempting to enjoy the benefits of a full spectrum of contraceptive methods and design multi-level interventions to mitigate such barriers.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. METHODS:We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. RESULTS:We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. CONCLUSIONS:Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.

Project description:IntroductionSome observational data suggest that the progestogen injectable contraceptive depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) may increase a woman's risk of HIV acquisition but a randomized clinical trial did not find a statistically significant increase in HIV risk for women using DMPA compared to two other methods. However, it could not rule out up to 30% increased HIV risk for DMPA users. We evaluate changes to contraceptive method mix in South Africa under different assumptions about the existence and strength of a possible undetected relationship between DMPA use and HIV risk.MethodsA mathematical model was developed to simulate the ongoing HIV epidemic and contraceptive method mix in South Africa to estimate how changes in method mix could impact HIV- and reproductive health-related outcomes. We made different assumptions about the relationship between DMPA use and HIV risk, from no relationship to a 30% increase in HIV risk for women using DMPA. Scenario analyses were used to investigate the impact of switching away from DMPA predominance to new patterns of contraceptive use.ResultsIn South Africa, the HIV-related benefits of reduced DMPA use could be as great as the harms of increased adverse reproductive health outcomes over 20 years, if DMPA did increase the risk of HIV acquisition by a relative hazard of infection of 1.1 or greater. A reduction in DMPA use among HIV-positive women would have no benefit in terms of HIV infections, but would incur additional negative reproductive health outcomes. The most important driver of adverse reproductive health outcomes is the proportion of women who switch away from DMPA to no contraceptive method.ConclusionsIf there is any real increased HIV risk for DMPA users that has not been detected by the recent randomized trial, a reduction in DMPA use could reduce the ongoing number of new HIV infections. However, such a change would place more women at risk of adverse reproductive health effects. It is imperative that these effects are minimized by focusing on expanding access to safe, effective and acceptable alternative contraceptive methods for all women.

Project description:SEE STEPHAN ET AL DOI101093/AWW120 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS WORK: Real world information is often abstract, dynamic and imprecise. Deciding if changes represent random fluctuations, or alterations in underlying contexts involve challenging probability estimations. Dysfunction may contribute to erroneous beliefs, such as delusions. Here we examined brain function during inferences about context change from noisy information. We examined cortical-subcortical circuitry engaging anterior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and midbrain. We hypothesized that schizophrenia-related deficits in prefrontal function might overestimate context change probabilities, and that this more chaotic worldview may subsequently gain familiarity and be over-reinforced, with implications for delusions. We then examined these opposing information processing biases against less expected versus familiar information patterns in relation to genetic risk for schizophrenia in unaffected siblings. In one experiment, 17 patients with schizophrenia and 24 normal control subjects were presented in 3 T magnetic resonance imaging with numerical information varying noisily about a context integer, which occasionally shifted up or down. Subjects were to indicate when the inferred numerical context had changed. We fitted Bayesian models to estimate probabilities associated with change inferences. Dynamic causal models examined cortical-subcortical circuitry interactions at context change inference, and at subsequent reduced uncertainty. In a second experiment, genetic risk for schizophrenia associated with similar cortical-subcortical findings were explored in an independent sample of 36 normal control subjects and 35 unaffected siblings during processing of intuitive number sequences along the number line, or during the inverse, less familiar, sequence. In the first experiment, reduced Bayesian models fitting subject behaviour suggest that patients with schizophrenia overestimated context change probabilities. Here, patients engaged anterior prefrontal cortex relatively less than healthy controls, in part driven by reduced effective connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to anterior prefrontal cortex. In processing subsequent information indicating reduced uncertainty of their predictions, patients engaged relatively increased mid-brain activation, driven in part by increased dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to midbrain connectivity. These dissociable reduced and exaggerated prefrontal and subcortical circuit functions were accentuated in patients with delusions. In the second experiment, analogous dissociable reduced anterior prefrontal cortex and exaggerated midbrain engagement occurred in unaffected siblings when processing less expected versus more familiar number sequences. In conclusion, patients overestimated ambiguous context change probabilities with relatively reduced anterior frontal engagement. Subsequent reduced uncertainty about contextual state appeared over-reinforced, potentially contributing to confirmation bias and a cascade of aberrant belief processing about a more chaotic world relevant to delusions. These opposing cortical-subcortical effects relate in part to genetic risk for schizophrenia, with analogous imbalances in neural processing of less expected versus familiar information patterns.

Dataset Information

Planning for Outcomes (P4O) Modeling Tool: Estimating the Impact of Changing the Proportion of Injectable Progestins in the Contraceptive Method Mix.

Publications

Planning for Outcomes (P<sub>4</sub>O) Modeling Tool: Estimating the Impact of Changing the Proportion of Injectable Progestins in the Contraceptive Method Mix.

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