Dataset Information

Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (+/-0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.

SUBMITTER: Cori A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2717369 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

Cori Anne A Boëlle Pierre-Yves PY Thomas Guy G Leung Gabriel M GM Valleron Alain-Jacques AJ

PLoS computational biology 20090821 8

The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infecti ...[more]

PMID: 19696879

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Project description:BackgroundGuided internet-based psychological interventions show substantial promise for expanding access to evidence-based mental health care. However, this can only be achieved if results of tightly controlled studies from the treatment developers can also be achieved in other independent settings. This dissemination depends critically on developing efficient and effective ways to train professionals to deliver these interventions. Unfortunately, descriptions of therapist training and its evaluation are often limited or absent within dissemination studies.ObjectiveThis study aimed to describe and evaluate a program of therapist training to deliver internet-based Cognitive Therapy for social anxiety disorder (iCT-SAD). As this treatment was developed in the United Kingdom and this study was conducted in Hong Kong with local therapists, an additional objective was to examine the feasibility, acceptability, and initial efficacy of iCT-SAD in this cultural context, based on data from a pilot case series.MethodsTraining in iCT-SAD was provided to 3 therapists and included practice of the face-to-face format of therapy under clinical supervision, training workshops, and treating 6 patients with the iCT-SAD program. Training progress was evaluated using standardized and self-report measures and by reviewing patient outcomes. In addition, feedback from patients and therapists was sought regarding the feasibility and acceptability of the program.ResultsThe training program was effective at increasing therapists' iCT-SAD knowledge and skills, resulting in levels of competence expected of a specialist Cognitive Behavioral Therapy practitioner. The 6 patients treated by the trainees all completed their treatment and achieved a mean pre- to posttreatment change of 53.8 points (SD 39.5) on the primary patient outcome measure, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale. The within-group effect size (Cohen d) was 2.06 (95% CI 0.66-3.46). There was evidence to suggest that the patients' clinical outcomes were sustained at 3-month follow-up. These clinical results are comparable to those achieved by UK patients treated by the developers of the internet program. Patient and therapist feedback did not identify any major cultural barriers to implementing iCT-SAD in Hong Kong; some modest language suggestions were made to assist understanding.ConclusionsThe therapist training implemented here facilitated the successful dissemination of an effective UK-developed internet intervention to Hong Kong. The treatment appeared feasible and acceptable in this setting and showed highly promising initial efficacy. A randomized controlled trial is now required to examine this more robustly. As therapist training is critical to the successful dissemination of internet interventions, further research to develop, describe, and evaluate therapist training procedures is recommended.

Dataset Information

Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

Publications

Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

Similar Datasets

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