Dataset Information

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

ABSTRACT: Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

SUBMITTER: Dowdy AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4750006 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Dowdy Andrew J AJ

Scientific reports 20160211

Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout ...[more]

PMID: 26865431

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Project description:We studied avian development in 49 to 153 species of temperate and tropical New World passerine birds to determine how growth rates, and incubation and nestling periods, varied in relation to other life-history traits. We collected growth data and generated unbiased mass and tarsus growth rate estimates (mass n = 92 species, tarsus n = 49 species), and measured incubation period (n = 151) and nestling period (n = 153), which we analyzed with respect to region, egg mass, adult mass, clutch size, parental care type, nest type, daily nest predation rate (DMR), and nest height. We investigated covariation of life-history and natural-history attributes with the four development traits after controlling for phylogeny. Species in our lowland tropical sample grew 20% (incubation period), 25% (mass growth rate), and 26% (tarsus growth rate) more slowly than in our temperate sample. Nestling period did not vary with respect to latitude, which suggests that tropical songbirds fledge in a less well-developed state than temperate species. Suboscine species typically exhibited slower embryonic and post-embryonic growth than oscine passerines regardless of their breeding region. This pattern of slow development in tropical species could reflect phylogenetic effects based on unknown physiological attributes. Time-dependent nest mortality was unrelated to nestling mass growth rate, tarsus growth rate, and incubation period, but was significantly associated with nestling period. This suggests that nest predation, the predominant cause of nest loss in songbirds, does not exert strong selection on physiologically constrained traits, such as embryonic and post-embryonic growth, among our samples of temperate and lowland tropical songbird species. Nestling period, which is evolutionarily more labile than growth rate, was significantly shorter in birds exposed to higher rates of nest loss and nesting at lower heights, among other traits. Differences in life-history variation across latitudes provide insight into how unique ecological characteristics of each region influence physiological processes of passerines, and thus, how they can shape the evolution of life histories. While development traits clearly vary with respect to latitude, trait distributions overlap broadly. Life-history and natural history associations differ for each development trait, which suggests that unique selective pressures or constraints influence the evolution of each trait.

Dataset Information

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Publications

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Similar Datasets

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