Dataset Information

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

ABSTRACT: Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

SUBMITTER: Dowdy AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4750006 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Dowdy Andrew J AJ

Scientific reports 20160211

Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout ...[more]

PMID: 26865431

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Project description:Accurate estimates of tree mortality are essential for the development of mechanistic forest dynamics models, and for estimating carbon storage and cycling. However, identifying agents of tree mortality is difficult and imprecise. Although lightning kills thousands of trees each year and is an important agent of mortality in some forests, the frequency and distribution of lightning-caused tree death remain unknown for most forests. Moreover, because all evidence regarding the effects of lightning on trees is necessarily anecdotal and post hoc, rigorous tests of hypotheses regarding the ecological effects of lightning are impossible. We developed a combined electronic sensor/camera-based system for the location and characterization of lightning strikes to the forest canopy in near real time and tested the system in the forest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Cameras mounted on towers provided continuous video recordings of the forest canopy that were analyzed to determine the locations of lightning strikes. We used a preliminary version of this system to record and locate 18 lightning strikes to the forest over a 3-year period. Data from field surveys of known lightning strike locations (obtained from the camera system) enabled us to develop a protocol for reliable, ground-based identification of suspected lightning damage to tropical trees. In all cases, lightning damage was relatively inconspicuous; it would have been overlooked by ground-based observers having no knowledge of the event. We identified three types of evidence that can be used to consistently identify lightning strike damage in tropical forests: (1) localized and directionally biased branch mortality associated with flashover among tree and sapling crowns, (2) mortality of lianas or saplings near lianas, and (3) scorched or wilting epiphytic and hemiepiphytic plants. The longitudinal trunk scars that are typical of lightning-damaged temperate trees were never observed in this study. Given the prevalence of communications towers worldwide, the lightning detection system described here could be implemented in diverse forest types. Data from multiple systems would provide an outstanding opportunity for comparative research on the ecological effects of lightning. Such comparative data are increasingly important given expected increases in lightning frequency with climatic change.

Dataset Information

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Publications

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

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