Dataset Information

Predicting Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Clinical, MRI, and Plasma Biomarkers via Probabilistic Pattern Classification.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have a substantially increased risk of developing dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this study, we developed a multivariate prognostic model for predicting MCI-to-dementia progression at the individual patient level.

Methods

Using baseline data from 259 MCI patients and a probabilistic, kernel-based pattern classification approach, we trained a classifier to distinguish between patients who progressed to AD-type dementia (n = 139) and those who did not (n = 120) during a three-year follow-up period. More than 750 variables across four data sources were considered as potential predictors of progression. These data sources included risk factors, cognitive and functional assessments, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, and plasma proteomic data. Predictive utility was assessed using a rigorous cross-validation framework.

Results

Cognitive and functional markers were most predictive of progression, while plasma proteomic markers had limited predictive utility. The best performing model incorporated a combination of cognitive/functional markers and morphometric MRI measures and predicted progression with 80% accuracy (83% sensitivity, 76% specificity, AUC = 0.87). Predictors of progression included scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, and Functional Activities Questionnaire, as well as volume/cortical thickness of three brain regions (left hippocampus, middle temporal gyrus, and inferior parietal cortex). Calibration analysis revealed that the model is capable of generating probabilistic predictions that reliably reflect the actual risk of progression. Finally, we found that the predictive accuracy of the model varied with patient demographic, genetic, and clinical characteristics and could be further improved by taking into account the confidence of the predictions.

Conclusions

We developed an accurate prognostic model for predicting MCI-to-dementia progression over a three-year period. The model utilizes widely available, cost-effective, non-invasive markers and can be used to improve patient selection in clinical trials and identify high-risk MCI patients for early treatment.

SUBMITTER: Korolev IO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4762666 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Clinical, MRI, and Plasma Biomarkers via Probabilistic Pattern Classification.

Korolev Igor O IO Symonds Laura L LL Bozoki Andrea C AC

PloS one 20160222 2

<h4>Background</h4>Individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have a substantially increased risk of developing dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this study, we developed a multivariate prognostic model for predicting MCI-to-dementia progression at the individual patient level.<h4>Methods</h4>Using baseline data from 259 MCI patients and a probabilistic, kernel-based pattern classification approach, we trained a classifier to distinguish between patients who progressed to AD-typ ...[more]

PMID: 26901338

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Project description:Effective and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), as well as its prodromal stage (i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI)), has attracted more and more attention recently. So far, multiple biomarkers have been shown to be sensitive to the diagnosis of AD and MCI, i.e., structural MR imaging (MRI) for brain atrophy measurement, functional imaging (e.g., FDG-PET) for hypometabolism quantification, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for quantification of specific proteins. However, most existing research focuses on only a single modality of biomarkers for diagnosis of AD and MCI, although recent studies have shown that different biomarkers may provide complementary information for the diagnosis of AD and MCI. In this paper, we propose to combine three modalities of biomarkers, i.e., MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF biomarkers, to discriminate between AD (or MCI) and healthy controls, using a kernel combination method. Specifically, ADNI baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data from 51AD patients, 99 MCI patients (including 43 MCI converters who had converted to AD within 18 months and 56 MCI non-converters who had not converted to AD within 18 months), and 52 healthy controls are used for development and validation of our proposed multimodal classification method. In particular, for each MR or FDG-PET image, 93 volumetric features are extracted from the 93 regions of interest (ROIs), automatically labeled by an atlas warping algorithm. For CSF biomarkers, their original values are directly used as features. Then, a linear support vector machine (SVM) is adopted to evaluate the classification accuracy, using a 10-fold cross-validation. As a result, for classifying AD from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 93.2% (with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 93.3%) when combining all three modalities of biomarkers, and only 86.5% when using even the best individual modality of biomarkers. Similarly, for classifying MCI from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 76.4% (with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 66%) for our combined method, and only 72% even using the best individual modality of biomarkers. Further analysis on MCI sensitivity of our combined method indicates that 91.5% of MCI converters and 73.4% of MCI non-converters are correctly classified. Moreover, we also evaluate the classification performance when employing a feature selection method to select the most discriminative MR and FDG-PET features. Again, our combined method shows considerably better performance, compared to the case of using an individual modality of biomarkers.

Dataset Information

Predicting Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Clinical, MRI, and Plasma Biomarkers via Probabilistic Pattern Classification.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Clinical, MRI, and Plasma Biomarkers via Probabilistic Pattern Classification.

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