Dataset Information

Investigating the utility of previously developed prediction scores in acute ischemic stroke patients in the stroke belt.

ABSTRACT: To assess the utility of previously developed scoring systems, we compared SEDAN, named after the components of the score (baseline blood Sugar, Early infarct signs and (hyper) Dense cerebral artery sign on admission computed tomography scan, Age, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale on admission), Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE), Houston Intra-arterial Therapy (HIAT), and HIAT-2 scoring systems among patients receiving systemic (intravenous [IV] tissue plasminogen activator [tPA]) and endovascular (intra-arterial [IA]) treatments.We retrospectively reviewed all IV tPA and IA patients presenting to our center from 2008-2011. The scores were assessed in patients who were treated with IV tPA only, IA only, and a combination of IV tPA and IA (IV-IA). We tested the ability of THRIVE to predict discharge modified Rankin scale (mRS) 3-6, HIAT and HIAT-2 discharge mRS 4-6, and SEDAN symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH).Of the 366 patients who were included in this study, 243 had IV tPA only, 89 had IA only, and 34 had IV-IA. THRIVE was predictive of mRS 3-6 in the IV-IA (odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-2.91) and the IV group (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.43-2.04), but not in the IA group. HIAT was predictive of mRS 4-6 in the IA (OR, 3.55; 95% CI, 1.65-7.25), IV (OR, 3.47; 95% CI, 2.26-5.33), and IV-IA group (OR, 6.48; 95% CI, 1.41-29.71). HIAT-2 was predictive of mRS 4-6 in the IA (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.03-1.87) and IV group (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.18-1.57), but not in the IV-IA group. SEDAN was not predictive of sICH in the IA or the IV-IA group, but was predictive in the IV group (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.01-2.36).Our study demonstrated that although highly predictive of outcome in the original study design treatment groups, prediction scores may not generalize to all patient samples, highlighting the importance of validating prediction scores in diverse samples.

SUBMITTER: Boehme AK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4780244 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Investigating the utility of previously developed prediction scores in acute ischemic stroke patients in the stroke belt.

Boehme Amelia K AK Rawal Pawan V PV Lyerly Michael J MJ Albright Karen C KC Bavarsad Shahripour Reza R Palazzo Paola P Kapoor Niren N Alvi Mohammad M Houston J Thomas JT Harrigan Mark R MR Cava Luis L Sisson April A Alexandrov Anne W AW Alexandrov Andrei V AV

Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases : the official journal of National Stroke Association 20140810 8

<h4>Background</h4>To assess the utility of previously developed scoring systems, we compared SEDAN, named after the components of the score (baseline blood Sugar, Early infarct signs and (hyper) Dense cerebral artery sign on admission computed tomography scan, Age, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale on admission), Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE), Houston Intra-arterial Therapy (HIAT), and HIAT-2 scoring systems among patients receiving systemic (intravenous [IV] tis ...[more]

PMID: 25113079

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Project description:BackgroundThe beneficial effects of endovascular treatment with new-generation mechanical thrombectomy devices compared with intravenous thrombolysis alone to treat acute large-artery ischemic stroke have been shown in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study aimed to estimate the cost utility of mechanical thrombectomy compared with the established standard of care.MethodsWe developed a Markov decision process analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment with mechanical thrombectomy plus intravenous thrombolysis versus treatment with intravenous thrombolysis alone from the public payer perspective in Canada. We conducted comprehensive literature searches to populate model inputs. We estimated the efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy plus intravenous thrombolysis from a meta-analysis of 5 RCTs, and we used data from the Oxford Vascular Study to model long-term clinical outcomes. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) using a 5-year time horizon.ResultsThe base case analysis showed the cost and effectiveness of treatment with mechanical thrombectomy plus intravenous thrombolysis to be $126?939 and 1.484 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), respectively, and the cost and effectiveness of treatment with intravenous thrombolysis alone to be $124?419 and 1.273 QALYs, respectively. The mechanical thrombectomy plus intravenous thrombolysis strategy was associated with an ICER of $11?990 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of treatment with mechanical thrombectomy plus intravenous thrombolysis being cost-effective was 57.5%, 89.7% and 99.6% at thresholds of $20?000, $50?000 and $100?000 per QALY gained, respectively. The main factors influencing the ICER were time horizon, extra cost of mechanical thrombectomy treatment and age of the patient.InterpretationMechanical thrombectomy as an adjunct therapy to intravenous thrombolysis is cost-effective compared with treatment with intravenous thrombolysis alone for patients with acute large-artery ischemic stroke.

Project description:Background and objectivesVery poor outcome despite intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and mechanical thrombectomy (MT) occurs in about 1 of 4 patients with ischemic stroke and is associated with a high logistic and economic burden. We aimed to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to identify futile recanalization therapies (FRT) in patients undergoing those therapies.Materials and methodsPatients from a prospectively collected observational registry of a single academic stroke center treated with MT and/or IVT were included. The dataset was split into a training (N=1808, 80%) and internal validation (N=453, 20%) cohort. We used gradient boosted decision tree machine-learning models after k-NN imputation of 32 variables available at admission to predict FRT defined as modified Rankin-Scale (mRS) 5-6 at 3 months. We report feature importance, ability for discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis.Results2261 patients with a median (IQR) age 75 years (64-83), 46% female, median NIHSS 9 (4-17), 34% IVT alone, 41% MT alone, 25% bridging were included. Overall 539 (24%) had FRT, more often in MT alone (34%) as compared to IVT alone (11%). Feature importance identified clinical variables (stroke severity, age, active cancer, prestroke disability), laboratory values (glucose, CRP, creatinine), imaging biomarkers (white matter hyperintensities) and onset-to-admission time as the most important predictors. The final model was discriminatory for predicting 3-month FRT (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.87-0.88) and had good calibration (Brier 0.12, 0.11-0.12). Overall performance was moderate (F1-score 0.63 ± 0.004) and decision curve analyses suggested higher mean net benefit at lower thresholds of treatment (up to 0.8).ConclusionsThis FRT prediction model can help inform shared decision making and identify the most relevant features in the emergency setting. While it might be particularly useful in low resource healthcare settings, incorporation of further multifaceted variables is necessary to further increase the predictive performance.

Dataset Information

Investigating the utility of previously developed prediction scores in acute ischemic stroke patients in the stroke belt.

Publications

Investigating the utility of previously developed prediction scores in acute ischemic stroke patients in the stroke belt.

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