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The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Recent evidence suggests that sexual contact may give rise to transmission of Ebola virus long after infection has been cleared from blood. We develop a simple mathematical model that incorporates contact transmission and sexual transmission parametrized from data relating to the 2013-2015 West African Ebola epidemic. The model explores scenarios where contact transmission is reduced following infection events, capturing behaviour change, and quantifies how these actions reducing transmission may be compromised by sexual transmission in terms of increasing likelihood, size and duration of outbreaks. We characterize the extent to which sexual transmission operates in terms of the probability of initial infection resolving to sexual infectiousness and the sexual transmission rate, and relate these parameters to the overall case burden. We find that sexual transmission can have large effects on epidemic dynamics (increasing attack ratios from 25% in scenarios without sexual transmission but with contact-transmission-reducing behaviour, up to 80% in equivalent scenarios with sexual transmission).

SUBMITTER: Vinson JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4938036 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

Vinson John E JE Drake John M JM Rohani Pejman P Park Andrew W AW

Biology letters 20160608 6

Recent evidence suggests that sexual contact may give rise to transmission of Ebola virus long after infection has been cleared from blood. We develop a simple mathematical model that incorporates contact transmission and sexual transmission parametrized from data relating to the 2013-2015 West African Ebola epidemic. The model explores scenarios where contact transmission is reduced following infection events, capturing behaviour change, and quantifies how these actions reducing transmission ma ...[more]

PMID: 27277951

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Project description:BackgroundSexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors.Methodology/principal findingsWe devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated.Conclusions/significanceOur results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Project description:Ebola virus (EBOV) has been responsible for sporadic outbreaks in Central Africa since 1976 and has the potential of causing social disruption and public panic as illustrated by the 2013-2016 epidemic in West Africa. Transmission of EBOV has been described to occur via contact with infected bodily fluids, supported by data indicating that infectious EBOV could be cultured from blood, semen, saliva, urine, and breast milk. Parameters influencing transmission of EBOV are, however, largely undefined in part due to the lack of an established animal model to study mechanisms of pathogen spread. Here, we investigated EBOV transmissibility in male and female ferrets. After intranasal challenge, an infected animal was placed in direct contact with a naive ferret and in contact with another naive ferret (separated from the infected animal by a metal mesh) that served as the indirect-contact animal. All challenged animals, male direct contacts, and one male indirect contact developed disease and died. The remaining animals were not viremic and remained asymptomatic but developed EBOV-glycoprotein IgM and/or IgG specific antibodies-indicative of virus transmission. EBOV transmission via indirect contact was frequently observed in this model but resulted in less-severe disease compared to direct contact. Interestingly, these observations are consistent with the detection of specific antibodies in humans living in areas of EBOV endemicity.IMPORTANCE Our knowledge regarding transmission of EBOV between individuals is vague and is mostly limited to spreading via direct contact with infectious bodily fluids. Studying transmission parameters such as dose and route of infection is nearly impossible in naturally acquired cases-hence the requirement for a laboratory animal model. Here, we show as a proof of concept that ferrets can be used to study EBOV transmission. We also show that transmission in the absence of direct contact is frequent, as all animals with indirect contact with the infected ferrets had detectable antibodies to the virus, and one succumbed to infection. Our report provides a new small-animal model for studying EBOV transmission that does not require adaptation of the virus, providing insight into virus transmission among humans during epidemics.

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The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

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The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

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