Dataset Information

Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

ABSTRACT: eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).

SUBMITTER: Kovesdy CP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4978053 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

Kovesdy Csaba P CP Coresh Josef J Ballew Shoshana H SH Woodward Mark M Levin Adeera A Naimark David M J DM Nally Joseph J Rothenbacher Dietrich D Stengel Benedicte B Iseki Kunitoshi K Matsushita Kunihiro K Levey Andrew S AS

Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN 20151211 8

eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calcula ...[more]

PMID: 26657867

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:The natural history of kidney disease among blacks who carry the APOL1 high-risk variants varies, with only a subgroup progressing to ESRD. We aimed to determine whether the APOL1 risk variants are associated with incident proteinuria in the context of hypertension-attributed CKD, and whether subsequent kidney function decline after the onset of proteinuria differs by APOL1 risk status. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:Using Cox models, we studied the association between APOL1 risk status and incident proteinuria (defined as a doubling of urine protein-to-creatinine ratio to a level ?0.22 g/g creatinine) among African-American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) trial participants with APOL1 genotyping and without proteinuria at baseline. RESULTS:Of the 480 participants in our study, 82 (17%) had the high-risk genotypes (2 alleles), and 254 (53%) developed proteinuria over a median follow-up of 6.8 years. At baseline, mean eGFR was lower in the APOL1 high-risk group compared with the low-risk group (0 or 1 allele; 49.6 versus 53.2 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively; P=0.02), but median proteinuria was similar (0.04 g/g creatinine for both groups; P=0.43). Individuals with the high-risk genotypes were 1.72-fold more likely to develop incident proteinuria compared with those with the low-risk genotypes (95% confidence interval, 1.27 to 2.32), independent of age, sex, ancestry, baseline eGFR, baseline systolic BP, and randomized treatment groups. Although eGFR declined faster after the onset of proteinuria, this rate did not differ significantly by APOL1 risk status. CONCLUSIONS:Among blacks with established moderate CKD, the APOL1 high-risk variants are associated with greater risk of incident proteinuria. After proteinuria onset, kidney function declines more rapidly but does not differ by APOL1 risk status. This suggests that factors that lead to proteinuria, beyond APOL1, may additionally drive CKD progression.

Dataset Information

Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

Publications

Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

Similar Datasets

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