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Categorizing natural history trajectories of ambulatory function measured by the 6-minute walk distance in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

ABSTRACT: High variability in patients' changes in 6 minute walk distance (6MWD) over time has complicated clinical trials of treatment efficacy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). We assessed whether boys with DMD could be grouped into classes that shared similar ambulatory function trajectories as measured by 6MWD. Ambulatory boys aged 5 years or older with genetically confirmed DMD who were enrolled in a natural history study at 11 care centers throughout Italy were included. For each boy, standardized assessments of 6MWD were available at annual intervals spanning 3 years. Trajectories of 6MWD vs. age and trajectories of 6MWD vs. time from enrollment were examined using latent class analysis. A total of 96 boys were included. At enrollment, the mean age was 8.3 years (mean 6MWD: 374 meters). After accounting for age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use, four latent trajectory classes were identified as explaining 3-year 6MWD outcomes significantly better than a single average trajectory. Patient trajectories of 6MWD change from enrollment were categorized as having fast decline (n?=?25), moderate decline (n?=?19), stable function (n?=?37), and improving function (n?=?15) during the 3-year follow-up. After accounting for trajectory classes, the standard deviation of variation in 6MWD was reduced by approximately 40%. The natural history of ambulatory function in DMD may be composed of distinct trajectory classes. The extent to which trajectories are associated with novel and established prognostic factors warrants further study. Reducing unexplained variation in patient outcomes could help to further improve DMD clinical trial design and analysis.

SUBMITTER: Mercuri E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5026045 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Categorizing natural history trajectories of ambulatory function measured by the 6-minute walk distance in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Mercuri Eugenio E Signorovitch James Edward JE Swallow Elyse E Song Jinlin J Ward Susan J SJ

Neuromuscular disorders : NMD 20160527 9

High variability in patients' changes in 6 minute walk distance (6MWD) over time has complicated clinical trials of treatment efficacy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). We assessed whether boys with DMD could be grouped into classes that shared similar ambulatory function trajectories as measured by 6MWD. Ambulatory boys aged 5 years or older with genetically confirmed DMD who were enrolled in a natural history study at 11 care centers throughout Italy were included. For each boy, standardiz ...[more]

PMID: 27423700

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Project description:BackgroundDeficits in ambulatory function progress at heterogeneous rates among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). The resulting inherent variability in ambulatory outcomes has complicated the design of drug efficacy trials and clouded the interpretation of trial results. We developed a prediction model for 1-year change in the six minute walk distance (6MWD) among DMD patients, and compared its predictive value to that of commonly used prognostic factors (age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use).MethodsNatural history data were collected from DMD patients at routine follow up visits approximately every 6 months over the course of 2-5 years. Assessments included ambulatory function and steroid use. The annualized change in 6MWD (?6MWD) was studied between all pairs of visits separated by 8-16 months. Prediction models were developed using multivariable regression for repeated measures, and evaluated using cross-validation.ResultsAmong n = 191 follow-up intervals (n = 39 boys), mean starting age was 9.4 years, mean starting 6MWD was 351.8 meters, and 75% had received steroids for at least one year. Over the subsequent 8-16 months, mean ?6MWD was -37.0 meters with a standard deviation (SD) of 93.7 meters. Predictions based on a composite of age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use explained 28% of variation in ?6MWD (R2 = 0.28, residual SD = 79.4 meters). A broadened prognostic model, adding timed 10-meter walk/run, 4-stair climb, and rise from supine, as well as height and weight, significantly improved prediction, explaining 59% of variation in ?6MWD after cross-validation (R2 = 0.59, residual SD = 59.7 meters).ConclusionsA prognostic model incorporating timed function tests significantly improved prediction of 1-year changes in 6MWD. Explained variation was more than doubled compared to predictions based only on age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use. There is significant potential for composite prognostic models to inform DMD clinical trials and clinical practice.

Project description:BackgroundStride Velocity 95th Centile (SV95C) is the first wearable device-derived clinical outcome assessment (COA) to receive European Medicines Agency (EMA) qualification as a primary endpoint in ambulant patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) aged ≥4 years.ObjectiveTo compare SV95C-in its first-ever clinical trial application as a secondary endpoint-with established motor function COAs used in the trial (Four-Stair Climb [4SC] velocity, North Star Ambulatory Assessment [NSAA], and Six-Minute Walk Distance [6MWD]).MethodsSV95C was a secondary endpoint in a subset (n = 47) of participants in the SPITFIRE/WN40227 trial of taldefgrobep alfa, which was discontinued due to lack of clinical benefit. Participants in the ≤48-week SV95C sub-study were 6-11 years old and received corticosteroids for ≥6 months pre-treatment. Pearson correlations were used to compare SV95C with the other COAs. Responsiveness and changes over time were respectively assessed via standardized response means (SRMs) based on absolute changes and mixed models for repeated measures.ResultsSV95C change at Week 24 was -0.07 m/s, with limited variability (standard deviation: 0.16, n = 27). The SRM for SV95C indicated moderate responsiveness to clinical change at the earliest timepoint (Week 12, n = 46), while those of the other COAs did not indicate moderate responsiveness until Week 36 (6MWD, n = 33) or Week 48 (4SC velocity, n = 20; NSAA total score, n = 20). Baseline correlations between SV95C and other COAs were strong (r = 0.611-0.695). Correlations between SV95C change from baseline to Week 48 and changes in other COAs were moderate to strong (r = 0.443-0.678).∥.ConclusionsOverall, SV95C demonstrated sensitivity to ambulatory decline over short intervals, low variability, and correlation with established COAs. Although the negative trial precluded demonstration of SV95C's sensitivity to drug effect, these findings support the continued use of SV95C in DMD clinical trials.

Project description:Functional variability among boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is well recognised and complicates interpretation of clinical studies. We hypothesised that boys with DMD could be clustered into groups sharing similar trajectories of ambulatory function over time, as measured by the North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) total score. We also explored associations with other variables such as age, functional abilities, and genotype. Using the NorthStar Clinical Network database, 395 patients with >1 NSAA assessment were identified. We utilised latent class trajectory analysis of longitudinal NSAA scores, which produced evidence for at least four clusters of boys sharing similar trajectories versus age in decreasing order of clinical severity: 25% of the boys were in cluster 1 (NSAA falling to ? 5 at age ~10y), 35% were in cluster 2 (NSAA ? 5 ~12y), 21% in were cluster 3 (NSAA? 5 ~14y), and 19% in cluster 4 (NSAA > 5 up to 15y). Mean ages at diagnosis of DMD were similar across clusters (4.2, 3.9, 4.3, and 4.8y, respectively). However, at the first NSAA assessment, a significant (p<0.05) association was observed between earlier declining clusters and younger age, worse NSAA, slower rise from supine, slower 10 metre walk/run times, and younger age of steroid initiation. In order to assess the probability of observing complete loss of function for individual NSAA items, we examined the proportion of patients who shifted from a score of 1 or 2 at baseline to a score of 0. We also assessed the probability of gain of function using the inverse assessment and stratified the probability of deterioration, improvement-or static behavior-by age ranges and using baseline functional status. Using this tool, our study provides a comprehensive assessment of the NSAA in a large population of patients with DMD and, for the first time, describes discrete clusters of disease progression; this will be invaluable for future DMD clinical trial design and interpretation of findings.

Dataset Information

Categorizing natural history trajectories of ambulatory function measured by the 6-minute walk distance in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Publications

Categorizing natural history trajectories of ambulatory function measured by the 6-minute walk distance in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

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