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Derivation and internal validation of a mortality risk index for aged people living with HIV: The Dat'AIDS score.

ABSTRACT: The objective was to develop a multivariable prognostic index for overall mortality over a five-year span integrating classical HIV biomarkers and comorbidities in people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 60 or older.Prospective multicenter cohort study from the French Dat'AIDS cohort.All HIV-1 infected patients aged 60 years or older on 1st January 2008 were included. Sociodemographic data, CD4 cell count, CD4 nadir, HIV viral load, history of comorbidities, hepatitis co-infections and laboratory parameters at baseline were considered as potential prognostic variables. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality.Among 1415 patients included, we derived a score comprising the following predictors: Age (65-74: 1 point; ?75: 8 points), CD4 cell count (200-349: 3 points; <200: 6 points), non-HIV related cancer (6 points), cardiovascular disease (8 points), estimated glomerular filtration rate (30-59 mL/min/1.73m2: 5 points; <30mL/min/1.73m2: 16 points), cirrhosis (13 points), low body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2, 10 points), anemia (6 points). Mean observed score was 7.0 ± 8.0 and ranged from 0 to 45. Score categories defined 4 risk groups for mortality: low, moderate, high and very high risk (5-year survival probability 0.95 (95%CI[0.93-0.97]), 0.90 (95%CI[0.87-0.92]), 0.77 (95%CI[0.68-0.84]) and 0.54 (95%CI[0.43-0.63]) respectively). The score showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.76) and calibration.We propose a multivariable prognostic score for mortality among PLHIV aged 60 or over, who will become the predominant population in future years in western populations. It could be a useful tool for research, for developing preventive and treatment strategies according to risk group, and for risk assessment by clinicians.

SUBMITTER: Hentzien M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5908189 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation and internal validation of a mortality risk index for aged people living with HIV: The Dat'AIDS score.

Hentzien Maxime M Delpierre Cyrille C Pugliese Pascal P Allavena Clotilde C Jacomet Christine C Valantin Marc-Antoine MA Cabié André A Cuzin Lise L Rey David D Bani-Sadr Firouzé F Dramé Moustapha M

PloS one 20180419 4

<h4>Objective</h4>The objective was to develop a multivariable prognostic index for overall mortality over a five-year span integrating classical HIV biomarkers and comorbidities in people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 60 or older.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective multicenter cohort study from the French Dat'AIDS cohort.<h4>Methods</h4>All HIV-1 infected patients aged 60 years or older on 1st January 2008 were included. Sociodemographic data, CD4 cell count, CD4 nadir, HIV viral load, history of comorbi ...[more]

PMID: 29672628

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Project description:BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Accurate CVD risk prediction could improve care for RA patients. Our goal is to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting CVD risk in RA patients.MethodsMedicare claims data were linked to multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test results to create an RA patient cohort with age ??40?years that was split 2:1 for training and internal validation. Clinical and RA-related variables, MBDA score, and its 12 biomarkers were evaluated as predictors of a composite CVD outcome: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or fatal CVD within 3?years. Model building used Cox proportional hazard regression with backward elimination. The final MBDA-based CVD risk score was internally validated and compared to four clinical CVD risk prediction models.Results30,751 RA patients (904 CVD events) were analyzed. Covariates in the final MBDA-based CVD risk score were age, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, history of CVD (excluding MI/stroke), MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3 and TNF-R1. In internal validation, the MBDA-based CVD risk score was a strong predictor of 3-year risk for a CVD event, with hazard ratio (95% CI) of 2.89 (2.46-3.41). The predicted 3-year CVD risk was low for 9.4% of patients, borderline for 10.2%, intermediate for 52.2%, and high for 28.2%. Model fit was good, with mean predicted versus observed 3-year CVD risks of 4.5% versus 4.4%. The MBDA-based CVD risk score significantly improved risk discrimination by the likelihood ratio test, compared to four clinical models. The risk score also improved prediction, reclassifying 42% of patients versus the simplest clinical model (age + sex), with a net reclassification index (NRI) (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.10-0.27); and 28% of patients versus the most comprehensive clinical model (age + sex + diabetes + hypertension + tobacco use + history of CVD + CRP), with an NRI of 0.07 (0.001-0.13). C-index was 0.715 versus 0.661 to 0.696 for the four clinical models.ConclusionA prognostic score has been developed to predict 3-year CVD risk for RA patients by using clinical data, three serum biomarkers and the MBDA score. In internal validation, it had good accuracy and outperformed clinical models with and without CRP. The MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score may improve RA patient care by offering a risk stratification tool that incorporates the effect of RA inflammation.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisHospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia.MethodsWe used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score ('base' model). In the second model, we added to the 'base' model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables ('disease' model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics.ResultsIn derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models.Conclusions/interpretationThis simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. DESIGN:Observational study using prospectively collected data. SETTING:This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between January 2000 and December 2015. PATIENTS:Pediatric patients (< 18 yr old) who achieved return of spontaneous circulation. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients were divided into a derivation (3/4) and validation (1/4) cohort. A prediction score was developed using a multivariable logistic regression model with backward selection. Patient and event characteristics for the derivation cohort (n = 3,893) and validation cohort (n = 1,297) were similar. Seventeen variables associated with the outcome remained in the final reduced model after backward elimination. Predictors of in-hospital mortality included age, illness category, pre-event characteristics, arrest location, day of the week, nonshockable pulseless rhythm, duration of chest compressions, and interventions in place at time of arrest. The C-statistic for the final score was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in the validation cohort. The expected versus observed mortality plot indicated good calibration in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The score showed a stepwise increase in mortality with an observed mortality of less than 15% for scores 0-9 and greater than 80% for scores greater than or equal to 25. The model also performed well for neurologic outcome and in sensitivity analyses for events within the past 5 years and for patients with or without a pulse at the onset of chest compressions. CONCLUSIONS:We developed and internally validated a prediction score for initial survivors of pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest. This prediction score may be useful for prognostication following cardiac arrest, stratifying patients for research, and guiding quality improvement initiatives.

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Dataset Information

Derivation and internal validation of a mortality risk index for aged people living with HIV: The Dat'AIDS score.

Publications

Derivation and internal validation of a mortality risk index for aged people living with HIV: The Dat'AIDS score.

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