Dataset Information

Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.

SUBMITTER: Liu-Helmersson J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6582658 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Liu-Helmersson Jing J Brännström Åke Å Sewe Maquins Odhiambo MO Semenza Jan C JC Rocklöv Joacim J

Frontiers in public health 20190612

Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we ...[more]

PMID: 31249824

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Project description:BackgroundFlying is an essential function for mosquitoes, required for mating and, in the case of females, to get a blood meal and consequently function as a vector. Flight depends on the action of the indirect flight muscles (IFMs), which power the wings beat. No description of the development of IFMs in mosquitoes, including Aedes aegypti, is available.MethodsA. aegypti thoraces of larvae 3 and larvae 4 (L3 and L4) instars were analyzed using histochemistry and bright field microscopy. IFM primordia from L3 and L4 and IFMs from pupal and adult stages were dissected and processed to detect F-actin labelling with phalloidin-rhodamine or TRITC, or to immunodetection of myosin and tubulin using specific antibodies, these samples were analyzed by confocal microscopy. Other samples were studied using transmission electron microscopy.ResultsAt L3-L4, IFM primordia for dorsal-longitudinal muscles (DLM) and dorsal-ventral muscles (DVM) were identified in the expected locations in the thoracic region: three primordia per hemithorax corresponding to DLM with anterior to posterior orientation were present. Other three primordia per hemithorax, corresponding to DVM, had lateral position and dorsal to ventral orientation. During L3 to L4 myoblast fusion led to syncytial myotubes formation, followed by myotendon junctions (MTJ) creation, myofibrils assembly and sarcomere maturation. The formation of Z-discs and M-line during sarcomere maturation was observed in pupal stage and, the structure reached in teneral insects a classical myosin thick, and actin thin filaments arranged in a hexagonal lattice structure.ConclusionsA general description of A. aegypti IFM development is presented, from the myoblast fusion at L3 to form myotubes, to sarcomere maturation at adult stage. Several differences during IFM development were observed between A. aegypti (Nematoceran) and Drosophila melanogaster (Brachyceran) and, similitudes with Chironomus sp. were observed as this insect is a Nematoceran, which is taxonomically closer to A. aegypti and share the same number of larval stages.

Dataset Information

Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Publications

Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Under Climate Change Scenarios.

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