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The main contributor to the upswing of survival in locally advanced colorectal cancer: an analysis of the SEER database.

ABSTRACT: Background:There is no conclusion about the most important contributor to the upswing of locally advanced colorectal cancer (LACRC) survival. Methods:Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was extracted to identify colorectal adenocarcinoma cancer patients at stage II and III diagnosed in the two periods 1989-1990 and 2009-2010. The statistical methods included Pearson's chi-squared test, log-rank test, Cox regression model and propensity score matching. Results:The Cox regression model showed that hazard ratio (HR) of non-surgery dropped from 11.529 to 3.469 in right colon cancer (RCC), 5.214 to 2.652 in left colon cancer (LCC) and 3.275 to 3.269 in rectal cancer (RC) from 1989-1990 to 2009-2010. The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for surgical resection in 2009-2010 were narrower than those in 1989-1990. HR became greater in LACRC without chemotherapy (from 1.337 to 1.779 in RCC, 1.269 to 2.017 in LCC, 1.317 to 1.811 in RC). There was no overlapping about the 95% CI of chemotherapy between the two groups. The progress of surgery was not linked to the improvement of overall survival (OS) of RCC (p?=?0.303) and RC (p?=?0.660). Chemotherapy had a significant association with OS of all colorectal cancer (CRC) patients (p?=?0.017 in RCC; p?=?0.006 in LCC; p?=?0.001 in RC). Conclusions:Advancements in chemotherapy regimen were the main contributor to the upswing of CRC survival. The improvements in surgery had a limited effect on improvements in CRC survival.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6640067 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The main contributor to the upswing of survival in locally advanced colorectal cancer: an analysis of the SEER database.

Li Yuqiang Y Zhao Lilan L Güngör Cenap C Tan Fengbo F Zhou Zhongyi Z Li Chenglong C Song Xiangping X Wang Dan D Pei Qian Q Liu Wenxue W

Therapeutic advances in gastroenterology 20190718

<h4>Background</h4>There is no conclusion about the most important contributor to the upswing of locally advanced colorectal cancer (LACRC) survival.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was extracted to identify colorectal adenocarcinoma cancer patients at stage II and III diagnosed in the two periods 1989-1990 and 2009-2010. The statistical methods included Pearson's chi-squared test, log-rank test, Cox regression model and propensity score m ...[more]

PMID: 31360223

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Project description:PurposeThe aim of study was to screen factors associated with the overall survival of colorectal cancer patients with lymph nodes metastasis who received neoadjuvant therapy and construct a nomogram model.MethodsAll enrolled subjects of the SEER database were randomly assigned to the training and testing group in a ratio of 3:2. The patients of Tangdu Hospital were seemed as validation group. Univariate cox regression analysis, lasso regression and random forest survival were used to screen variables related to the survival of advanced CRC patients received neoadjuvant therapy in the training group. Area under curves were adopted to evaluate the 1,3,5-year prediction value of the optimal model in three cohorts. Calibration curves were drawn to observe the prediction accuracy of the nomogram model. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the potential clinical value of the nomogram model.ResultsA total of 1833 subjects were enrolled in this study. After random allocation, 1055 cases of the SEER database served as the training group, 704 cases as the testing group and 74 patients from our center as the external validation group. Variables were screened by univariate cox regression used to construct a nomogram survival prediction model, including M, age, chemotherapy, CEA, perineural invasion, tumor size, LODDS, liver metastasis and radiation. The AUCs of the model for predicting 1-year OS in the training group, testing and validation group were 0.765 (0.703,0.827), 0.772 (0.697,0.847) and 0.742 (0.601,0.883), predicting 3-year OS were 0.761 (0.725,0.780), 0.742 (0.699,0.785), 0.733 (0.560,0.905) and 5-year OS were 0.742 (0.711,0.773), 0.746 (0.709,0.783), 0.838 (0.670,0.980), respectively. The calibration curves showed the difference between prediction probability of the model and the actual survival was not significant in three cohorts and the decision curve analysis revealed the practice clinical application value. And the prediction value of model was better for young CRC than older CRC patients.ConclusionA nomogram model including LODDS for the prognosis of advanced CRC received neoadjuvant therapy was constructed and verified based on the SEER database and single center practice. The accuracy and potential clinical application value of the model performed well, and the model had better predictive value for EOCRC than LOCRC.

Project description:Background For patients with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC), conventional TNM staging is not accurate in predicting survival outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop two accurate survival prediction models to guide clinical decision making. Methods A retrospective analysis of 22,842 LABC patients was performed from 2010 to 2015 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. An additional cohort of 200 patients from the Binzhou Medical University Hospital (BMUH) was analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen for variables. The identified variables were used to build a survival prediction model. The performance of the nomogram models was assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The LASSO analysis identified 9 variables in patients with LABC, including age, marital status, Grade, histological type, T-stage, N-stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. In the training cohort, the C-index of the nomogram in predicting the overall survival (OS) was 0.767 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.751–0.775], cancer specific survival (CSS) was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.756–0.774). In the external validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram in predicting the OS was 0.858 (95% CI: 0.812–0.904), the CSS was 0.866 (95% CI: 0.817–0.915). In the training cohort, the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) values of the nomogram in prediction of the 1, 3, and 5-year OS were 0.836 (95% CI: 0.821–0.851), 0.769 (95% CI: 0.759–0.780), and 0.750 (95% CI: 0.738–0.762), respectively. The AUC values for prediction of the 1, 3, and 5-year CSS were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.811–0.847), 0.769 (95% CI: 0.757–0.780), and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.732–0.758), respectively. Results of the C-index, ROC curve, and DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was more accurate in predicting the OS and CSS of patients compared with conventional TNM staging. Conclusion Two prediction models were developed and validated in this study which provided more accurate prediction of the OS and CSS in LABC patients than the TNM staging. The constructed models can be used for predicting survival outcomes and guide treatment plans for LABC patients.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent studies have indicated that the incidence of esophageal cancer has declined in the past decade in the U.S. However, trends in the incidence and survival have not been thoroughly examined. METHODS:Data from 46?063 patients with esophageal cancer between 1973 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trends in the age-adjusted incidence and survival were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS:The age-adjusted incidence of esophageal cancer increased from 5.55 to 7.44 per 100?000 person-years between 1973 and 2004. Later, it decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23%. In the last 40?years, the strong male predominance increased slightly. Importantly, the percentage of patients with localized stage of squamous cell cancer decreased. It was observed that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma declined since 1986, while the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. Consistently, the estimated 40-year limited-duration prevalence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was higher than that of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Additionally, we observed a modest but significant improvement in survival during the study period. CONCLUSION:The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has decreased significantly over the past four decades in the U.S., while the incidence of adenocarcinoma has increased, particularly among men. Overall, the long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer is poor but it has improved over the past decades, especially for the localized disease. KEY POINTS:Significant findings of the study The incidence of esophageal cancer has decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23% since 2004. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. What this study adds There has been a shift in the prevalence of esophageal cancer histological subtypes over the past decades in the U.S. We found that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has continued to decrease, while the esophageal adenocarcinoma rate has continued to increase.

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The main contributor to the upswing of survival in locally advanced colorectal cancer: an analysis of the SEER database.

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The main contributor to the upswing of survival in locally advanced colorectal cancer: an analysis of the SEER database.

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