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Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation.

ABSTRACT: In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500- day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lockdown ( R0 =0.60) beginning 23 March. The case fatality rate given infection is taken as 1%. Parameter values for mean length of stay and conditional probability of death for ICU and non-ICU hospital admissions are guided by Ferguson et al. (2020). Under unmitigated spread the model predicts around 600,000 deaths in the UK. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. If the initial suppression were in place until day 200 and then relaxed to an R0 of 1.5 between days 200 and 300, to be followed by a return to an R0 of 0.60, the model predicts around 43,000 deaths. This would increase to around 64,000 if the release from the first suppression takes place 20 days earlier. The results indicate the extreme sensitivity to timing and the consequences of even small delays to suppression and premature relaxation of such measures.

SUBMITTER: Dagpunar JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7373688 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation.

Dagpunar John S JS

Infectious Disease Modelling 20200722

In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500- day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R 0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lockdown ( R 0 =0.60) beginning 23 March. The case fatality rat ...[more]

PMID: 32835143

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected people with intellectual disability disproportionately. Existing data does not provide enough information to understand factors associated with increased deaths in those with intellectual disability. Establishing who is at high risk is important in developing prevention strategies, given risk factors or comorbidities in people with intellectual disability may be different to those in the general population. AIMS:To identify comorbidities, demographic and clinical factors of those individuals with intellectual disability who have died from COVID-19. METHOD:An observational descriptive case series looking at deaths because of COVID-19 in people with intellectual disability was conducted. Along with established risk factors observed in the general population, possible specific risk factors and comorbidities in people with intellectual disability for deaths related to COVID-19 were examined. Comparisons between mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability subcohorts were undertaken. RESULTS:Data on 66 deaths in individuals with intellectual disability were analysed. This group was younger (mean age 64 years) compared with the age of death in the general population because of COVID-19. High rates of moderate-to-profound intellectual disability (n = 43), epilepsy (n = 29), mental illness (n = 29), dysphagia (n = 23), Down syndrome (n = 20) and dementia (n = 15) were observed. CONCLUSIONS:This is the first study exploring associations between possible risk factors and comorbidities found in COVID-19 deaths in people with intellectual disability. Our data provides insight into possible factors for deaths in people with intellectual disability. Some of the factors varied between the mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability groups. This highlights an urgent need for further systemic inquiry and study of the possible cumulative impact of these factors and comorbidities given the possibility of COVID-19 resurgence.

Dataset Information

Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation.

Publications

Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation.

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