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Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan.

ABSTRACT: Recent outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led a global pandemic cross the world. Most countries took two main interventions: suppression like immediate lockdown cities at epicenter or mitigation that slows down but not stopping epidemic for reducing peak healthcare demand. Both strategies have their apparent merits and limitations; it becomes extremely hard to conduct one intervention as the most feasible way to all countries. Targeting at this problem, this paper conducted a feasibility study by defining a mathematical model named SEMCR, it extended traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model by adding two key features: a direct connection between Exposed and Recovered populations, and separating infections into mild and critical cases. It defined parameters to classify two stages of COVID-19 control: active contain by isolation of cases and contacts, passive contain by suppression or mitigation. The model was fitted and evaluated with public dataset containing daily number of confirmed active cases including Wuhan and London during January 2020 and March 2020. The simulated results showed that 1) Immediate suppression taken in Wuhan significantly reduced the total exposed and infectious populations, but it has to be consistently maintained at least 90 days (by the middle of April 2020). Without taking this intervention, we predict the number of infections would have been 73 folders higher by the middle of April 2020. Its success requires efficient government initiatives and effective collaborative governance for mobilizing of corporate resources to provide essential goods. This mode may be not suitable to other countries without efficient collaborative governance and sufficient health resources. 2) In London, it is possible to take a hybrid intervention of suppression and mitigation for every 2 or 3 weeks over a longer period to balance the total infections and economic loss. While the total infectious populations in this scenario would be possibly 2 times than the one taking suppression, economic loss and recovery of London would be less affected. 3) Both in Wuhan and London cases, one important issue of fitting practical data was that there were a portion (probably 62.9% in Wuhan) of self-recovered populations that were asymptomatic or mild symptomatic. This finding has been recently confirmed by other studies that the seroprevalence in Wuhan varied between 3.2% and 3.8% in different sub-regions. It highlights that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of herd immunity. Early release of intervention intensity potentially increased a risk of the second outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Yang P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7410247 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan.

Yang Po P Qi Jun J Zhang Shuhao S Wang Xulong X Bi Gaoshan G Yang Yun Y Sheng Bin B Yang Geng G

PloS one 20200806 8

Recent outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led a global pandemic cross the world. Most countries took two main interventions: suppression like immediate lockdown cities at epicenter or mitigation that slows down but not stopping epidemic for reducing peak healthcare demand. Both strategies have their apparent merits and limitations; it becomes extremely hard to conduct one intervention as the most feasible way to all countries. Targeting at this problem, this paper conducted a f ...[more]

PMID: 32760081

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Project description:BackgroundIsolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.MethodsWe developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (R0), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort.FindingsSimulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.InterpretationIn most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts.FundingWellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund, and Health Data Research UK.

Project description:BackgroundA novel coronavirus has caused an international outbreak. Currently, there are no specific therapeutic agents for coronavirus infections. Convalescent plasma (CP) therapy is a potentially effective treatment option.MethodsPatients who had recovered from COVID-19 and had been discharged from the hospital for more than 2 weeks were recruited. COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP)-specific donor screening and selection were performed based on the following criteria: 1) aged 18-55 years; 2) eligible for blood donation; 3) diagnosed with COVID-19; 4) had two consecutive negative COVID-19 nasopharyngeal swab tests based on PCR (at least 24 hr apart) prior to hospital discharge; 5) had been discharged from the hospital for more than 2 weeks; and 6) had no COVID-19 symptoms prior to convalescent plasma donation. In addition, preference was given to CCP donors who had a fever lasting more than 3 days or a body temperature exceeding 38.5°C (101.3°F), and who donated 4 weeks after the onset of symptoms. CCP collection was performed using routine plasma collection procedures via plasmapheresis. In addition to routine donor testing, the CCP donors' plasma was also tested for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid and S-RBD-specific IgG antibody.ResultsOf the 81 potential CCP donors, 64 (79%) plasma products were collected. There were 18 female donors and 46 male donors. There were 34 first-time blood donors and 30 repeat donors. The average time between CCP collection and initial symptom onset was 49.1 days, and the average time between CCP collection and hospital discharge was 38.7 days. The average volume of CCP collected was 327.7 mL. All Alanine transaminase (ALT) testing results met blood donation requirements. HIV Ag/Ab, anti-HCV, anti-syphilis, and HBsAg were all negative; NAT for HIV, HBV, and HCV were also negative. In addition, all of the CCP donors' plasma units were negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Of the total 64 CCP donors tested, only one had an S-RBD-specific IgG titer of 1:160, all others had a titer of ≥1:320.ConclusionBased on a feasibility study of a pilot CCP program in Wuhan, China, we demonstrated the success and feasibility of CCP collection. In addition, all of the CCP units collected had a titer of ≥1:160 for S-RBD-specific IgG antibody, which met the CCP quality control requirements based on the Chinese national guidelines for CCP.

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Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan.

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Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan.

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