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Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Correlation of Progression-Free Survival-2 and Overall Survival in Solid Tumors.

ABSTRACT: Background: Using progression-free survival (PFS)2, time from randomization to 2nd disease progression or death, is proposed as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in oncology clinical trials. We used published data from solid tumor trials to assess whether PFS2 and OS are correlated. Methods: A literature search identified studies that reported PFS, PFS2, and OS. Two reviewers screened for eligibility, and documented PFS2, PFS or time from 1st to 2nd disease progression or death and OS. Correlation between PFS2 and OS was assessed using: (1) Kendall's Tau + Pearson's correlation coefficient in randomized controlled trials (RCTs); (2) Meta-analysis with the random effects model to compute the pooled correlation of PFS2 and OS. Results: Overall, 133 studies met search criteria, 15 (28 arms) had complete PFS2 and OS data in ovarian, gastric, colorectal, prostate, lung, renal and breast cancers. A positive correlation for PFS2 and OS was found for all 15 studies (Kendall's Tau = 0.7 [95% CIs 0.54, 0.78]); 10 RCTs (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.86); and meta-analysis from 7 trials (pooled Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.84 [p = 0.0001; 95% CIs 0.71, 0.96]). Conclusions: In this retrospective analysis PFS2 strongly correlates with OS supporting the use of PFS2 to measure long-term clinical benefit when OS cannot be assessed.

SUBMITTER: Chowdhury S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7456898 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Correlation of Progression-Free Survival-2 and Overall Survival in Solid Tumors.

Chowdhury Simon S Mainwaring Paul P Zhang Liangcai L Mundle Suneel S Pollozi Eneida E Gray Alexander A Wildgust Mark M

Frontiers in oncology 20200814

<b>Background:</b> Using progression-free survival (PFS)2, time from randomization to 2nd disease progression or death, is proposed as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in oncology clinical trials. We used published data from solid tumor trials to assess whether PFS2 and OS are correlated. <b>Methods:</b> A literature search identified studies that reported PFS, PFS2, and OS. Two reviewers screened for eligibility, and documented PFS2, PFS or time from 1st to 2nd disease progression or death ...[more]

PMID: 32923387

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Project description:ImportanceThe Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup (GCIG) recommended that progression-free survival (PFS) can serve as a primary end point instead of overall survival (OS) in advanced ovarian cancer. Evidence is lacking for the validity of PFS as a surrogate marker of OS in the modern era of different treatment types.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether PFS is a surrogate end point for OS in patients with advanced ovarian cancer.Data sourcesIn September 2016, a comprehensive search of publications in MEDLINE was conducted for randomized clinical trials of systematic treatment in patients with newly diagnosed ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer. The GCIG groups were also queried for potentially completed but unpublished trials.Study selectionStudies with a minimum sample size of 60 patients published since 2001 with PFS and OS rates available were eligible. Investigational treatments considered included initial, maintenance, and intensification therapy consisting of agents delivered at a higher dose and/or frequency compared with that in the control arm.Data extraction and synthesisUsing the meta-analytic approach on randomized clinical trials published from January 1, 2001, through September 25, 2016, correlations between PFS and OS at the individual level were estimated using the Kendall τ model; between-treatment effects on PFS and OS at the trial level were estimated using the Plackett copula bivariate (R2) model. Criteria for PFS surrogacy required R2 ≥ 0.80 at the trial level. Analysis was performed from January 7 through March 20, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresOverall survival and PFS based on measurement of cancer antigen 125 levels confirmed by radiological examination results or by combined GCIG criteria.ResultsIn this meta-analysis of 17 unique randomized trials of standard (n = 7), intensification (n = 5), and maintenance (n = 5) chemotherapies or targeted treatments with data from 11 029 unique patients (median age, 58 years [range, 18-88 years]), a high correlation was found between PFS and OS at the individual level (τ = 0.724; 95% CI, 0.717-0.732), but a low correlation was found at the trial level (R2 = 0.24; 95% CI, 0-0.59). Subgroup analyses led to similar results. In the external validation, 14 of the 16 hazard ratios for OS in the published reports fell within the 95% prediction interval from PFS.Conclusions and relevanceThis large meta-analysis of individual patient data did not establish PFS as a surrogate end point for OS in first-line treatment of advanced ovarian cancer, but the analysis was limited by the narrow range of treatment effects observed or by poststudy treatment. These results suggest that if PFS is chosen as a primary end point, OS must be measured as a secondary end point.

Dataset Information

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Correlation of Progression-Free Survival-2 and Overall Survival in Solid Tumors.

Publications

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Correlation of Progression-Free Survival-2 and Overall Survival in Solid Tumors.

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