Dataset Information

Predicting cardiovascular health trajectories in time-series electronic health records with LSTM models.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States (US). Better cardiovascular health (CVH) is associated with CVD prevention. Predicting future CVH levels may help providers better manage patients' CVH. We hypothesized that CVH measures can be predicted based on previous measurements from longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data.

Methods

The Guideline Advantage (TGA) dataset was used and contained EHR data from 70 outpatient clinics across the United States (US). We studied predictions of 5 CVH submetrics: smoking status (SMK), body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), hemoglobin A1c (A1C), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL). We applied embedding techniques and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks - to predict future CVH category levels from all the previous CVH measurements of 216,445 unique patients for each CVH submetric.

Results

The LSTM model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC): the micro-average AUROC was 0.99 for SMK prediction; 0.97 for BMI; 0.84 for BP; 0.91 for A1C; and 0.93 for LDL prediction. Model performance was not improved by using all 5 submetric measures compared with using single submetric measures.

Conclusions

We suggest that future CVH levels can be predicted using previous CVH measurements for each submetric, which has implications for population cardiovascular health management. Predicting patients' future CVH levels might directly increase patient CVH health and thus quality of life, while also indirectly decreasing the burden and cost for clinical health system caused by CVD and cancers.

SUBMITTER: Guo A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7789405 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting cardiovascular health trajectories in time-series electronic health records with LSTM models.

Guo Aixia A Beheshti Rahmatollah R Khan Yosef M YM Langabeer James R JR Foraker Randi E RE

BMC medical informatics and decision making 20210106 1

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States (US). Better cardiovascular health (CVH) is associated with CVD prevention. Predicting future CVH levels may help providers better manage patients' CVH. We hypothesized that CVH measures can be predicted based on previous measurements from longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data.<h4>Methods</h4>The Guideline Advantage (TGA) dataset was used and contained EHR data from 70 outpatient clinics ...[more]

PMID: 33407390

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Project description:ObjectiveDiscovering subphenotypes of complex diseases can help characterize disease cohorts for investigative studies aimed at developing better diagnoses and treatments. Recent advances in unsupervised machine learning on electronic health record (EHR) data have enabled researchers to discover phenotypes without input from domain experts. However, most existing studies have ignored time and modeled diseases as discrete events. Uncovering the evolution of phenotypes - how they emerge, evolve and contribute to health outcomes - is essential to define more precise phenotypes and refine the understanding of disease progression. Our objective was to assess the benefits of an unsupervised approach that incorporates time to model diseases as dynamic processes in phenotype discovery.MethodsIn this study, we applied a constrained non-negative tensor-factorization approach to characterize the complexity of cardiovascular disease (CVD) patient cohort based on longitudinal EHR data. Through tensor-factorization, we identified a set of phenotypic topics (i.e., subphenotypes) that these patients established over the 10 years prior to the diagnosis of CVD, and showed the progress pattern. For each identified subphenotype, we examined its association with the risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes estimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Risk Equations, a conventional CVD-risk assessment tool frequently used in clinical practice. Furthermore, we compared the subsequent myocardial infarction (MI) rates among the six most prevalent subphenotypes using survival analysis.ResultsFrom a cohort of 12,380 adult CVD individuals with 1068 unique PheCodes, we successfully identified 14 subphenotypes. Through the association analysis with estimated CVD risk for each subtype, we found some phenotypic topics such as Vitamin D deficiency and depression, Urinary infections cannot be explained by the conventional risk factors. Through a survival analysis, we found markedly different risks of subsequent MI following the diagnosis of CVD among the six most prevalent topics (p < 0.0001), indicating these topics may capture clinically meaningful subphenotypes of CVD.ConclusionThis study demonstrates the potential benefits of using tensor-decomposition to model diseases as dynamic processes from longitudinal EHR data. Our results suggest that this data-driven approach may potentially help researchers identify complex and chronic disease subphenotypes in precision medicine research.

Project description:Abstract Objective Hypertension has long been recognized as one of the most important predisposing factors for cardiovascular diseases and mortality. In recent years, machine learning methods have shown potential in diagnostic and predictive approaches in chronic diseases. Electronic health records (EHRs) have emerged as a reliable source of longitudinal data. The aim of this study is to predict the onset of hypertension using modern deep learning (DL) architectures, specifically long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and longitudinal EHRs. Materials and Methods We compare this approach to the best performing models reported from previous works, particularly XGboost, applied to aggregated features. Our work is based on data from 233 895 adult patients from a large health system in the United States. We divided our population into 2 distinct longitudinal datasets based on the diagnosis date. To ensure generalization to unseen data, we trained our models on the first dataset (dataset A “train and validation”) using cross-validation, and then applied the models to a second dataset (dataset B “test”) to assess their performance. We also experimented with 2 different time-windows before the onset of hypertension and evaluated the impact on model performance. Results With the LSTM network, we were able to achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.98 in the “train and validation” dataset A and 0.94 in the “test” dataset B for a prediction time window of 1 year. Lipid disorders, type 2 diabetes, and renal disorders are found to be associated with incident hypertension. Conclusion These findings show that DL models based on temporal EHR data can improve the identification of patients at high risk of hypertension and corresponding driving factors. In the long term, this work may support identifying individuals who are at high risk for developing hypertension and facilitate earlier intervention to prevent the future development of hypertension.

Dataset Information

Predicting cardiovascular health trajectories in time-series electronic health records with LSTM models.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting cardiovascular health trajectories in time-series electronic health records with LSTM models.

Similar Datasets

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