Dataset Information

Predictors of Survival After Liver Transplantation in Patients With the Highest Acuity (MELD ≥40).

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To identify factors that accurately predict 1-year survival for liver transplant recipients with a MELD score ≥40.

Background

Although transplant is beneficial for patients with the highest acuity (MELD ≥40), mortality in this group is high. Predicting which patients are likely to survive for >1 year would be medically and economically helpful.

Methods

The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database was reviewed to identify adult liver transplant recipients from 2002 through 2016 with MELD score ≥40 at transplant. The relationships between 44 recipient and donor factors and 1-year patient survival were examined using random survival forests methods. Variable importance measures were used to identify the factors with the strongest influence on survival, and partial dependence plots were used to determine the dependence of survival on the target variable while adjusting for all other variables.

Results

We identified 5309 liver transplants that met our criteria. The overall 1-year survival of high-acuity patients improved from 69% in 2001 to 87% in 2016. The strongest predictors of death within 1 year of transplant were patient on mechanical ventilator before transplantation, prior liver transplant, older recipient age, older donor age, donation after cardiac death, and longer cold ischemia.

Conclusions

Liver transplant outcomes continue to improve even for patients with high medical acuity. Applying ensemble learning methods to recipient and donor factors available before transplant can predict survival probabilities for future transplant cases. This information can be used to facilitate donor/recipient matching and to improve informed consent.

SUBMITTER: Evans MD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7855276 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background & aimsDespite recent attention to differences in access to livers for transplantation, research has focused on patients already on the wait list. We analyzed data from a large administrative database that represents the entire US population, and state Medicaid data, to identify factors associated with differences in access to wait lists for liver transplantation.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of transplant-eligible patients with end-stage liver disease using the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (2006-2014; n = 16,824) and Medicaid data from 5 states (2002-2009; California, Florida, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; n = 67,706). Transplant-eligible patients had decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and/or liver synthetic dysfunction, based on validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision-based algorithms and data from laboratory studies. Placement on the wait list was determined through linkage with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database.ResultsIn an unadjusted analysis of the HealthCore database, we found that 29% of patients with HCC were placed on the 2-year wait list (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.4%-33.0%) compared with 11.9% of patients with stage 4 cirrhosis (ascites) (95% CI, 11.0%-12.9%) and 12.6% of patients with stage 5 cirrhosis (ascites and variceal bleeding) (95% CI, 9.4%-15.2%). Among patients with each stage of cirrhosis, those with HCC were significantly more likely to be placed on the wait list; adjusted subhazard ratios ranged from 1.7 (for patients with stage 5 cirrhosis and HCC vs those without HCC) to 5.8 (for patients with stage 1 cirrhosis with HCC vs those without HCC). Medicaid beneficiaries with HCC were also more likely to be placed on the transplant wait list, compared with patients with decompensated cirrhosis, with a subhazard ratio of 2.34 (95% CI, 2.20-2.49). Local organ supply and wait list level demand were not associated with placement on the wait list.ConclusionsIn an analysis of US healthcare databases, we found patients with HCC to be more likely to be placed on liver transplant wait lists than patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Previously reported reductions in access to transplant care for wait-listed patients with decompensated cirrhosis underestimate the magnitude of this difference.