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Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Plague in Madagascar.

ABSTRACT: Plague (Yersinia pestis) remains endemic in certain parts of the world. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of plague control interventions recommended by the World Health Organization with particular consideration to intervention coverage and timing. We developed a dynamic model of the spread of plague between interacting populations of humans, rats, and fleas and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis calibrated to a 2017 Madagascar outbreak. We assessed three interventions alone and in combination: expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline, mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis, and mass distribution of malathion. We varied intervention timing and coverage levels. We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare perspective. The preferred intervention, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $1350/QALY (GDP per capita in Madagascar), was expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline with 100% coverage starting immediately after the first reported case, gaining 543 QALYs at an incremental cost of $1023/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses support expanded access to antibiotic treatment and leave open the possibility that mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis or mass distribution of malathion could be cost-effective. Our analysis highlights the potential for rapid expansion of access to doxycycline upon recognition of plague outbreaks to cost-effectively prevent future large-scale plague outbreaks and highlights the importance of intervention timing.

SUBMITTER: Malloy GSP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8293333 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionTools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal.MethodsCombinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters.ResultsThe intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period.ConclusionsAll the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions.

Project description:Genetic analysis of pathogenic organisms is a useful tool for linking human cases together and/or to potential environmental sources. The resulting data can also provide information on evolutionary patterns within a targeted species and phenotypic traits. However, the instruments often used to generate genotyping data, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), can be expensive and sometimes require advanced technologies to implement. This places many genotyping tools out of reach for laboratories that do not specialize in genetic studies and/or lack the requisite financial and technological resources. To address this issue, we developed a low cost and low tech genotyping system, termed agarose-MAMA, which combines traditional PCR and agarose gel electrophoresis to target phylogenetically informative SNPs.To demonstrate the utility of this approach for generating genotype data in a resource-constrained area (Madagascar), we designed an agarose-MAMA system targeting previously characterized SNPs within Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. We then used this system to genetically type pathogenic strains of Y. pestis in a Malagasy laboratory not specialized in genetic studies, the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (IPM). We conducted rigorous assay performance validations to assess potential variation introduced by differing research facilities, reagents, and personnel and found no difference in SNP genotyping results. These agarose-MAMA PCR assays are currently employed as an investigative tool at IPM, providing Malagasy researchers a means to improve the value of their plague epidemiological investigations by linking outbreaks to potential sources through genetic characterization of isolates and to improve understanding of disease ecology that may contribute to a long-term control effort.The success of our study demonstrates that the SNP-based genotyping capacity of laboratories in developing countries can be expanded with manageable financial cost for resource constraint laboratories. This is a practical formula that reduces resource-driven limitations to genetic research and promises to advance global collective knowledge of infectious diseases emanating from resource limited regions of the world.

Project description:BackgroundLifestyle change interventions (LCI) for prevention of type 2 diabetes are covered by Medicare, but rarely by US Medicaid programs that constitute the largest public payer system in the USA. We estimate the long-term health and economic implications of implementing LCIs in state Medicaid programs.MethodsWe compared LCIs modeled after the intervention of the Diabetes Prevention Program versus routine care advice using a decision analytic simulation model and best available data from representative surveys, cohort studies, Medicaid claims data, and the published literature. Target population were non-disability-based adult Medicaid beneficiaries aged 19-64 years at high risk for type 2 diabetes (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and HbA1c ≥ 5.7% or fasting plasma glucose ≥ 110 mg/dl) from eight study states (Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma) that represent around 50% of the US Medicaid population. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) measured in cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and population cost and health impact were modeled from a healthcare system perspective and a narrow Medicaid perspective.ResultsIn the eight selected study states, 1.9 million or 18% of non-disability-based adult Medicaid beneficiaries would belong to the eligible high-risk target population - 66% of them Hispanics or non-Hispanic black. In the base-case analysis, the aggregated 5- and 10-year ICERs are US$226 k/QALY and US$34 k/QALY; over 25 years, the intervention dominates routine care. The 5-, 10-, and 25-year probabilities that the ICERs are below US$50 k (US$100 k)/QALY are 6% (15%), 59% (82%) and 96% (100%). From a healthcare system perspective, initial program investments of US$800 per person would be offset after 13 years and translate to US$548 of savings after 25 years. With a 20% LCI uptake in eligible beneficiaries, this would translate to upfront costs of US$300 million, prevent 260 thousand years of diabetes and save US$205 million over a 25-year time horizon. Cost savings from a narrow Medicaid perspective would be much smaller. Minorities and low-income groups would over-proportionally benefit from LCIs in Medicaid, but the impact on population health and health equity would be marginal.ConclusionsIn the long-term, investments in LCIs for Medicaid beneficiaries are likely to improve health and to decrease healthcare expenditures. However, population health and health equity impact would be low and healthcare expenditure savings from a narrow Medicaid perspective would be much smaller than from a healthcare system perspective.

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Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Plague in Madagascar.

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