Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Breast Cancer Pathologic Complete Response after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The methods used to predict the pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) have some limitations. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict breast cancer pCR after NAC based on convenient and economical multi-system hematological indicators and clinical characteristics.

Materials and methods

Patients diagnosed from July 2017 to July 2019 served as the training group (N = 114), and patients diagnosed in from July 2019 to July 2021 served as the validation group (N = 102). A nomogram was developed according to eight indices, including body mass index, platelet distribution width, monocyte count, albumin, cystatin C, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and D-dimer, which were determined by multivariate logistic regression. Internal and external validation curves are used to calibrate the nomogram.

Results

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval 0.892-0.992), and the concordance index indicated that the nomogram had good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve showed that the model was well-calibrated.

Conclusion

The nomogram developed in this study can help clinicians accurately predict the possibility of patients achieving the pCR after NAC. This information can be used to decide the most effective treatment strategies for patients.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9218360 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTo investigate the association of axillary pathologic complete response (pCR) rate among breast cancer patients with pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).MethodsThe retrospective clinical data of 1,903 patients who were treated with NCT between March, 2010 and December, 2018, were collected from one Chinese database and analyzed. The correlations between clinicopathological characteristics and breast pCR with axillary pCR were calculated by χ2 test. Binary logistic regression analysis was used for multivariate analysis. The relative risk of positive axillary nodes after NCT in patients with and without breast pCR was analyzed using a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel (CMH) test stratified by initial N stage and tumor subtype.ResultsThe rate of axillary pCR was increased in the cases with initial cN0, Ki67 high expression, HR+HER2+/HR-HER2+/TN subtypes, and breast pCR. After NCT, the relative risk of nodal disease burden was 4.81 in patients without breast pCR compared with patients with breast pCR. The relative risk of positive nodal status in patients with cN0, cN1, cN2, and cN3 disease without vs. with breast pCR was 6.45, 4.88, 5.69 and 6.24, respectively. The relative risk of positive nodal status in patients with HR+HER2-, HR+HER2+, HR-HER2+, and TN disease was 4.02, 4.50, 3.82 and 4.18, respectively. Of cN0 patients with breast pCR, only 4 out of 44 (9%) with HER2-positive disease had 1 or 2 axillary lymph node metastases at final surgical pathology compared to 30 out of 98 (31%) of those without breast pCR. There was no evidence of positive nodal residue among all 21 patients (100%) with TN disease compared to 65% (36 of 55) of patients without breast pCR.ConclusionsNodal status is strongly correlated with breast pCR after NCT. Patients with initial cN0/1 TN/HER2 positive disease who achieve breast pCR at surgery have a low risk of nodal metastasis. These results suggest that the failure rate of missing positive lymph nodes among those patients was very low and that it is safe for such patients to undergo sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) after NCT. This study also provides a theoretical basis for clinical trials focused on the avoidance of axillary surgery in selected patients.