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Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To derive a 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equation from usual-care data that is appropriate for people with type 2 diabetes from a wide range of ethnic groups, variable glycemic control, and high rates of albuminuria in New Zealand. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective open-cohort study used primary-care data from 36,127 people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD to derive a CVD equation using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Data from 12,626 people from a geographically different area were used for validation. Outcome measure was time to first fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event, derived from national hospitalization and mortality records. Risk factors were age at diagnosis, diabetes duration, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol-to-HDL ratio, ethnicity, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. RESULTS: Baseline median age was 59 years, 51% were women, 55% were of non-European ethnicity, and 33% had micro- or macroalbuminuria. Median follow-up was 3.9 years (141,169 person-years), including 10,030 individuals followed for at least 5 years. At total of 6,479 first cardiovascular events occurred during follow-up. The 5-year observed risk was 20.8% (95% CI 20.3-21.3). Risk increased with each 1% A1C (adjusted hazard ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.05-1.08]), when macroalbuminuria was present (2.04 [1.89-2.21]), and in Indo-Asians (1.29 [1.14-1.46]) and Maori (1.23 [1.14-1.32]) compared with Europeans. The derived risk equations performed well on the validation cohort compared with other risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: Renal function, ethnicity, and glycemic control contribute significantly to cardiovascular risk prediction. Population-appropriate risk equations can be derived from routinely collected data.

SUBMITTER: Elley CR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2875452 | biostudies-other | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study.

Elley C Raina CR Robinson Elizabeth E Kenealy Tim T Bramley Dale D Drury Paul L PL

Diabetes care 20100318 6

<h4>Objective</h4>To derive a 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equation from usual-care data that is appropriate for people with type 2 diabetes from a wide range of ethnic groups, variable glycemic control, and high rates of albuminuria in New Zealand.<h4>Research design and methods</h4>This prospective open-cohort study used primary-care data from 36,127 people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD to derive a CVD equation using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Data from ...[more]

PMID: 20299482

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Project description:BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Accurate CVD risk prediction could improve care for RA patients. Our goal is to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting CVD risk in RA patients.MethodsMedicare claims data were linked to multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test results to create an RA patient cohort with age ??40?years that was split 2:1 for training and internal validation. Clinical and RA-related variables, MBDA score, and its 12 biomarkers were evaluated as predictors of a composite CVD outcome: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or fatal CVD within 3?years. Model building used Cox proportional hazard regression with backward elimination. The final MBDA-based CVD risk score was internally validated and compared to four clinical CVD risk prediction models.Results30,751 RA patients (904 CVD events) were analyzed. Covariates in the final MBDA-based CVD risk score were age, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, history of CVD (excluding MI/stroke), MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3 and TNF-R1. In internal validation, the MBDA-based CVD risk score was a strong predictor of 3-year risk for a CVD event, with hazard ratio (95% CI) of 2.89 (2.46-3.41). The predicted 3-year CVD risk was low for 9.4% of patients, borderline for 10.2%, intermediate for 52.2%, and high for 28.2%. Model fit was good, with mean predicted versus observed 3-year CVD risks of 4.5% versus 4.4%. The MBDA-based CVD risk score significantly improved risk discrimination by the likelihood ratio test, compared to four clinical models. The risk score also improved prediction, reclassifying 42% of patients versus the simplest clinical model (age + sex), with a net reclassification index (NRI) (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.10-0.27); and 28% of patients versus the most comprehensive clinical model (age + sex + diabetes + hypertension + tobacco use + history of CVD + CRP), with an NRI of 0.07 (0.001-0.13). C-index was 0.715 versus 0.661 to 0.696 for the four clinical models.ConclusionA prognostic score has been developed to predict 3-year CVD risk for RA patients by using clinical data, three serum biomarkers and the MBDA score. In internal validation, it had good accuracy and outperformed clinical models with and without CRP. The MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score may improve RA patient care by offering a risk stratification tool that incorporates the effect of RA inflammation.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis. DESIGN:Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data. SETTING:ED. PARTICIPANTS:Patients aged ?18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:In-hospital all-cause mortality. METHOD:The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated. RESULTS:2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ?3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). VALIDATION:0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ?3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ?3, ?5 and ?7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION:The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.

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Dataset Information

Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study.

Publications

Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study.

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