Project description:During January-February 2020, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and tuberculosis were diagnosed for 3 patients in Wuhan, China. All 3 patients had COVID-19 pneumonia. One severely ill patient died after acute respiratory distress syndrome developed. Clinicians and public health officials should be aware of underlying chronic infections such as tuberculosis in COVID-19 patients.
Project description:BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was found to be the causative microorganism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which started to spread in Wuhan, China. This study was to evaluate the effectiveness of questionnaire, symptoms-based screening, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening of returnees from COVID-19-endemic areas on a chartered flight, to examine the proportion of infected persons and the proportion of asymptomatic persons among infected persons who returned from Wuhan.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was done in 7 tertiary medical institutions in Japan. A total of 566 Japanese who returned from Wuhan participated in the study.ResultsOverall, 11 of the 566 passengers had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result for pharyngeal swabs and 6 were asymptomatic. Only fever differed between SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative individuals (P < .043). Six of the 11 PCR-positive individuals were asymptomatic; 4 remained positive on day 10, and 1 asymptomatic person tested positive up to day 27. Two of the 11 were negative on the first PCR test and positive on the second.ConclusionsOur results will be important insights on screening returnees from locked-down cities, as well as providing important data on the proportion of asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. A 13-day observation period and a second round of PCR may be effective to screen patients, including asymptomatic infections.
Project description:A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
Project description:BackgroundA novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020.AimWe aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020.MethodsA series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.ResultsThe cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent.ConclusionFurther spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.
Project description:In early 2020, Japan repatriated 566 nationals from China. Universal laboratory testing and 14-day monitoring of returnees detected 12 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection; initial screening results were negative for 5. Common outcomes were remaining asymptomatic (n = 4) and pneumonia (n = 6). Overall, screening performed poorly.
Project description:BackgroundPneumonia remains a leading cause of child death in developing countries. The viruses in severe pneumonia remain poorly defined.MethodsThe study was conducted at the Eastern Visayas Regional Medical Center in Tacloban City, Philippines from May 2008 to May 2009. Patients aged 8 days to 13 years old who were admitted to the Department of Pediatrics with severe pneumonia were enrolled for the study. Upon admission, polymerase chain reaction was performed using nasopharyngeal swabs and blood cultures to detect respiratory viruses and bacteria, respectively.ResultAmong the 819 patients enrolled, at least one virus was detected in 501 cases (61.2%). In addition, 423 cases were positive for a single virus while bacteria were detected in the blood culture sample of 31 cases. The most commonly detected viruses were human rhinoviruses (n = 189), including types A (n = 103), B (n = 17), and C (n = 69), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (n = 165). Novel viruses such as human metapneumovirus, human coronavirus NL63, human bocavirus, and human polyomaviruses WU and KI were also detected. There were 70 deaths, and one or more viruses were detected in 35 (50%) of these cases. Positivity only for influenza A virus (OR = 4.3, 95% CI = 1.3-14.6) was significantly associated with fatal outcome. From the blood culture, Burkholderia cepacia group (n = 9), Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 4), Staphylococcus aureus (n = 4), Haemophilus influenzae (n = 1), and Salmonella C1 (n = 1) were also isolated.ConclusionViruses were commonly detected in children with severe pneumonia in the Philippines. Hence, viral etiologies should be considered while developing better effective strategies to reduce child pneumonia-related deaths in developing countries.
Project description:To determine prevalence of, seroprevalence of, and potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among a cohort of evacuees returning to the United States from Wuhan, China, in January 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional study of quarantined evacuees from 1 repatriation flight. Overall, 193 of 195 evacuees completed exposure surveys and submitted upper respiratory or serum specimens or both at arrival in the United States. Nearly all evacuees had taken preventive measures to limit potential exposure while in Wuhan, and none had detectable SARS-CoV-2 in upper respiratory tract specimens, suggesting the absence of asymptomatic respiratory shedding among this group at the time of testing. Evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 1 evacuee, who reported experiencing no symptoms or high-risk exposures in the previous 2 months. These findings demonstrated that this group of evacuees posed a low risk of introducing SARS-CoV-2 to the United States.
Project description:BackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.