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Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread.

ABSTRACT: Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.

SUBMITTER: Jarvis KF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8080800 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Objectives: With the worldwide spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), various antibody detection kits have been developed to test for SARS-CoV-2- specific IgG, IgM, and total antibody. However, the use of different testing methods under various heat-inactivation conditions might affect the COVID-19 detection results. Methods: Seven different antibody detection kits produced by four manufacturers for detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG, IgM, and total antibody were tested at Wuhan Huoshenshan Hospital, China. Most of the kits used the indirect immunity, capture, and double-antigen sandwich methods. The effects of various heat-inactivation conditions on SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG, IgM, and total antibody detection were analyzed for the different test methods. Results: Using the indirect immunity method, values for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody significantly increased and those for IgM antibody decreased with increasing temperature of heat-inactivation using indirect immunity method. However, values for SARS-CoV-2 IgM and total antibody showed no change when the capture and double-antigen sandwich methods were used. The changes in IgG and IgM antibody values with the indirect immunity method indicated that heat-inactivation could affect COVID-19 detection results obtained using this method. In particular, 18 (22.2%) SARS-CoV-2 IgM positive samples were detected as negative with heat-inactivation at 65°C for 30 min, and one (25%) IgG negative sample was detected as positive after heat-inactivation at 56°C for 60 min and 60°C for 30 min. Conclusions: Heat-inactivation could increase SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody values, and decrease IgM antibody values, causing potential false-positive or false-negative results for COVID-19 antibody detection using the indirect immunity method. Thus, before conducting antibody testing, the testing platforms should be evaluated in accordance with the relevant requirements to ensure accurate COVID-19 detection results.

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Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread.

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